I disagree. I feel we can separate the regime from the nation.
Our message would need to be that we are holding the Putin regime responsible and we are demanding their removal from power and being turned over to international justice. But we are not seeking the destruction of Russia.
This creates a divide between Putin’s interests and Russia’s interests. And Russia is bigger than Putin. When Russia as a whole sees it’s in its interests to kick Putin out, he will not be able to hold on to power. The Russians will sacrifice Putin to save themselves.
That will send a message to other national leaders who are contemplating the use of nuclear weapons. They will remember how high the international pressure will be as a result and how likely they are to be ousted from power by their own country.
I’ll grant you that a full nuclear counter-attack would have the same deterrent effect. But that would have the cost of several billion people also dying. So I think we’d be better off trying the plan that doesn’t involve a general nuclear war. And if it doesn’t work? Well, then we can launch all those missiles six months from now.
By the means I described in an earlier post. The highest possible levels of sanctions imposed by an international alliance. A public declaration of why these sanctions are being imposed and what the conditions are for lifting them.
If Russia were to use nukes, the time was already ripe weeks ago. Using nukes then might have changed the tide of the war. It’s hard to see how using nukes against Ukraine would accomplish much now, when the situation is much more hard-set in Ukraine’s favor.
Then you might not want to send Putin the message that you’ll just roll over in response to a nuclear attack. Because that’s the message you’d be sending, if you responded to his first nuke with mere sanctions. Responding that weakly to a nuclear first strike guarantees that he’s going to attack the US.
I think the point (at least that’s how I understand it and agree with) is that there is no reason to retaliate with nuclear missiles if Ukraine gets nuked. If Poland or any NATO country get nuked, then we are at that level of escalation.
There would be retaliation, but not a nuclear one. If we take the emotion out of it and play realpolitik, there is no reason to start WW3 because of Ukraine.
To reiterate what someone said above, if Russia nukes Ukraine then World War III has already begun. There is no way the US can meaningfully retaliate against Russia that wouldn’t result in their launching nukes against us, and that’s assuming that they haven’t already fired on us since they would rationally assume that we would retaliate against a nuclear strike on their part. If they get away with nuking Kiev on Day 1, then on Day 2 there’s nothing stopping them from nuking Helsinki or Stockholm or Tbilisi.
