As far as the physics goes, I don’t know how to proceed any further than this, and that’s ignoring air resistance:

ETA: I did find an online impact effects calculator. Here is a link where I plugged in some numbers, but I really don’t know how it works.

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of **56800 meters = 186000 ft**

The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity **2.77 km/s = 1.72 miles/s**

The energy lost in the atmosphere is **6.48 x 1016 Joules = 1.55 x 10^1 MegaTons** .

The impact energy is **1.51 x 1018 Joules = 3.60 x 10^2 MegaTons** .

The larger of these two energies is used to estimate the airblast damage.

The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension **1.28 km by 1.28 km**

Transient Crater Diameter: **3.26 km ( = 2.03 miles )**

Transient Crater Depth: **1.15 km ( = 0.716 miles )**

Final Crater Diameter: **3.83 km ( = 2.38 miles )**

Final Crater Depth: **443 meters ( = 1450 feet )**

The crater formed is a complex crater.

At this impact velocity ( < 12 km/s), little shock melting of the target occurs.

At this impact velocity ( < 15 km/s), little vaporization occurs; no fireball is created, therefore, there is no thermal radiation damage.

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately **1.6 minutes** after impact.

Richter Scale Magnitude: **6.3**

Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 480 km:

I. Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions.

II. Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings.

The ejecta will arrive approximately **5.45 minutes** after the impact.

At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments

Average Ejecta Thickness: **9.14 microns ( = 0.36 thousandths of an inch )**

Mean Fragment Diameter: **367 microns ( = 14.5 thousandths of an inch )**

The air blast will arrive approximately **24.2 minutes** after impact.

Peak Overpressure: **846 Pa = 0.00846 bars = 0.12 psi**

Max wind velocity: **1.99 m/s = 4.45 mph**

Sound Intensity: **59 dB** **(Loud as heavy traffic)**

Damage Description:

Glass windows may shatter.