How likely is it for Trump to lose all four primaries tonight?
How can Clinton be declared the winner in Mississippi tonight when precisely 0 percent of the results are in?
Because the exit polls were so overwhelming that while the numbers may be in doubt, the result isn’t. A secondary consideration would be that Mississippi is in a part of the country in which Clinton has been using Sanders as a punching bag.
I’m surprised Sanders is, so far, winning Michigan by 5%. Michigan is about 15% black, and Sanders is sucking with the black vote as Mississippi tonight will prove.
I do wonder if there will be a difference in the black vote with Sanders based on location. Will the midwest or west coast black vote go for Sanders more than the southern black vote? Who knows. But Sanders doing well in Michigan to me shows he will do pretty well in most of the other states since the majority of the southern states have already had their primaries.
I wonder if the final result will be something like Clinton winning the South but Sanders winning much of everything else. Then again he lost MA, so who knows.
As a guess, because Sanders has sucked with the black vote, losing it by 50 points on average and I’d wager 80-90% of democratic primary voters in MS are black.
Kasich is right on Trump’s tail in Michigan.
CNN called MS for Clinton and Trump. Bad news for Cruz.
However, the standout number there is the D split. Right now CNN is showing:
Clinton 88.4%
Sanders 9.9%
That’s not missing the 15% cutoff, that’s getting beaten to the ground and missing the cutoff.
Rubio is imploding. He is in the single-digits in both Michigan and Mississippiand I see no chance of that changing (much) as the night goes on.
Will he stay in for the Florida primary (and the embarrassment that will ensue should/if/when he loses it)?
The 7:47PM vote in Michigan shows Sanders 50%, Hiliary 48.2%, while Trump has 38% to Kasich’s 27.9%. Both of these with about 12% of the precincts reporting. Rubio hasn’t cracked 10% yet.
More and more it seems Trump is inevitable.
Less than a thousand votes counted so far, though. Could easily be non-representative precincts.
Well, consider that nationally Rubio is the candidate most acceptable to Republicans…a whopping 53% would be satisfied with him! This is starting to look more and more like a party on the verge of collapse.
Yes. He doesn’t drop out until after Florida. And maybe not then.
I think that neither Rubio nor Kasich see a path for a first ballot nomination. I think both of them are running against Trump, and against Cruz. I think they’re working with a philosophy of, “I won’t win, but neither will you!”
With more results in Bernie is up around 17% in Mississippi, he’s not out of the water yet, and I don’t know the demographics of the Mississippi counties well enough to speculate based on what’s in/isn’t in yet, but for no at least he won’t miss the threshold.
In Michigan he’s up 3%, which is surprising, but there are three county results to watch closely that have me thinking Clinton may win by a healthy margin:
Oakland County - Majority white, wealthy Detroit suburbs
Macomb County - Majority white, to the east of Detroit
Wayne County - Majority black, Detroit proper
Now, between these three counties are 1856 of Michigan’s 4830 precincts. What’s very concerning for Sanders is he’s down by several points in Oakland–which should be one of Bernie’s strongest counties, and more than 50% of Oakland precincts are in. He’s also down in Macomb, but only about 27/337 are in, so that may mean nothing, but again, a county with > 80% white population and a lot of people is one Bernie needs to win.
Wayne County only 16/999 are in, and Bernie actually has a slight lead. Now if he won Wayne County it would literally undo the demographics we’ve seen in every single Democratic primary this election (at least in states with meaningful numbers of black voters), and that’d be huge. But I just can’t imagine with the way Hillary polled going into Michigan that Sanders secretly is strong with black voters there and going to win the blackest county in Michigan.
Also FWIW 52% of voters today in the exit poll indicated they are content with President Obama’s policies.
I gotta say, I may need to find my hat to eat it. Sanders is so far on on pace to not only way outperform his polling but to possibly outperform the 50/50 metric.
That would be an amazing result and a major fail for the professional polling organizations. And if it holds could foretell a very long slog in which the narrative becomes that Sanders only has a Southern problem.
And Trump wins Mississippi.
I wouldn’t say he’s yet on pace until we know more about the three counties I mentioned above, plus Genesee County where Flint is. If you look at the county results a lot of Western Michigan is in, and a scattering of counties in Northwestern and UP Michigan, which are basically all white bread counties. While Sanders is still up (with less than 10% of county precincts) in in Wayne County you have to remember almost 25% of all the precincts are in that county, and it’s 40% black.
His 50/50 margin I believe was +4, which is what he’s at right now, before we’ve seen the full results from what should be his worst counties. So even if he holds where he is now, it’s a loss, because he’s missed his 50/50 margin in so many states now he actually needs to exceed it everywhere going forward to catch back up.
Brokered convention odds now stand at 45%.
Cruz is creeping up on Kasich in Michigan. It looks like the big city counties are going to be slow to report.
With 31% of Michigan now counted, Bernie is leading Hilary by about 5%, 51.3 to 46.8
I guess I see the whole thing differently. It isn’t the delegates that Kasich needs from Michigan; it’s proving that he can beat Trump somewhere besides his home state of Ohio, where a win is necessary for him, but far from sufficient.
Next Tuesday, even if Kasich and Rubio win their home states in WTA primaries, Trump will be piling up delegates in Illinois and Missouri, and to a lesser extent in (proportional) North Carolina. (With 17% reporting in Michigan, it’s 38-26-22-9 for Trump-Kasich-Cruz-Rubio.) A win in Michigan would have justified Kasich putting serious time and resources into Illinois over the next several days, where a win combined with Ohio and Michigan would have made him THE Anti-Trump. That’s gone now; he’ll have to concentrate on winning Ohio. And if that’s his only win, going into the 5-week down time between March 16 and April 18 (only ~200 delegates will be determined during that interval), the question will be: what’s the logic of continuing at all? The campaign will still cost money, but there will be no payoffs, except maybe Wisconsin.
I’m not so sure of that. Even if Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio loses Florida, Rubio will still have at least as many delegates as Kasich. Unless he’s out of money, why should he be the one that quits?
Looking at the road ahead, Kasich has to win a pile of WTA and WTM primaries in the Northeast, Midwest, and west coast to get to ~700; he’d have to dominate in exactly the way he isn’t doing in Michigan tonight.
Going into tonight, I figured Michigan would yield the answer to ‘do I believe that can happen’ and barring the nearly 1/4 of the votes that have come in so far being quite unrepresentative, the answer is, no way. If he gets lucky, I could see him getting ~400 delegates. Even if Trump falls short of 1237, he won’t be very far short. If he’s got 1100 delegates, while Cruz has 600, Kasich 400, and Rubio 300, Trump will be the nominee or the GOP will have a civil war, at least for the length of this election season.