In MLB, which of these is most likely to happen first?

In My Humble Opinion
1

Arrange the following in order from most likely to least likely:

(a) Someone will, over the course of a full season, hit .400 or more;

(b) A pitcher will win 30 games or more in a season;

© Someone will, over a the course of a full season, hit more than 73 home runs;

(d) A team will win more than 116 games in a season;

(e) Someone will, over the course of a career, hit more than 755 home runs; and

(f) Major league baseball will no longer be controlled by a band of myopic fools who run the sport into the ground.

2

(a) Could happen with a fluke season.
(b) Verrry difficult. Considering that most starters only start about 35 times a year, it would require near-perfection over the course of an entire season.
© Could happen, especially if the right player gets on the right team.
(d) Could happen with a well-constructed team.
(e) Very possible, especially with the current explosion.
(f) Hey, don’t ask for miracles.

Zev Steinhardt

3

©
(d)
(e)
(a)
(b)
(f)

4

I suspect (e) is the likeliest to happen first for the simple reason that we have two player with a legitimate shot at it, one of whom (Barry Bonds) who will do it within three years if he does it, and the other (Sammy Sosa) who will probably do it in about six or seven years.

(f) could change within 4-5 years if they screw things up so badly that the ringleaders go to prison.

A .400 hitter is possible but not as likely as some of the ohter possibilities.

74 home runs is possible, but not quite as likely as 756 career homers.

A 30-game winner is VERY unlikely to happen soon. Someday it will, but only after pitcher usage patterns change quite a bit.

Winning more than 116 games in a season seems extremely unlikely to me. I think the recent 116 and 114-win seasons were astonishing flukes.

5

KneadToKnow nailed it…UNLESS…f could happen if we have a strike that lasts a real long time and fans really stay away when baseball comes back. If all baseball parks have the attendance levels that Montreal currently gets, the owners won’t be able to make payroll. No money for anyone. Owners and players would have to get serious about fixing the game.

6

before someone pitches back to back no hitters. it’s been done once. imho, it’s the most overlooked record/feat in baseball.

7

© is most likely given that the players are loaded on steroids and with the exception of Detroit, every new ballpark is a bandbox.

(e) could happen but I think not by a current player. If McGwire had his lost seasons back and stayed healthy he had a chance… Bonds could if he can beat Father Time a few more years.

(d) given the increasing lack of parity between teams, could happen with a strong team in a weak division, coupled with Selig’s loony unbalanced schedule

(a) a few guys have flirted with it briefly, but this is tough for the long haul. The modern player faces too many good relievers, much more than what Williams did.

(b) very very difficult. With a five man rotation you only get maybe 35 starts in a season, you cannot afford to have any mistakes.

(f) What can I say? You’re talking about a bunch of owners that look up to Bud Selig for God’s sake!

8

© Someone will, over a the course of a full season, hit more than 73 home runs

I just think this is the most likely. More sluggers on teams, more thinly spread-out pitching, more different pitchers, more bad teams for sluggers to feast on, and so on.

(e) Someone will, over the course of a career, hit more than 755 home runs

Because there are so many sluggers out there now, it won’t be long before 500 isn’t considered as lofty a number as it is now - 550 or 600 will be considered the milestone needed to get one into the Hall. More people reaching 500 means more might have a chance at 600 or 700. Also, careers seem to be lasting longer and longer, thanks to the DH, steroids, and poor pitching.

(a) Someone will, over the course of a full season, hit .400 or more

Pretty tough to do, but not completely out of the realm of possibility.

(d) A team will win more than 116 games in a season

Also very difficult - I agree, the Mariners were an aberration.

(b) A pitcher will win 30 games or more in a season

Not likely. Five-man rotations, pitchers lasting usually 6 innings or less, more specialized relievers … adds up to fewer wins for starters.

(f) Major league baseball will no longer be controlled by a band of myopic fools who run the sport into the ground

Ha! No. Okay, it could happen.

9

Pitching back-to-back no-hitters was done by Johnny Vander Meer in June of 1938 against Brooklyn and Boston.

10

(c)
(a)
(e)
(b)
(d)
(f)…but really, (f) will never happen. It is my sad, yet honest opinion that Major League Baseball has lost its charm. It is no longer the pure pastime of Americans. It is no longer the honest, sportsman-like game of players who play “For the Love of the Game”. With the exception of a lot of great people, it is a bunch of fat guys who don’t shave, demand obscene salaries and butcher the sport we used to love so much.

Good bye, Baseball, sic transit gloria mundi. But it’s time for soccer (football) to take center stage.

but on a lighter note, Go Ichiro!

:frowning:
m

11

I think it would be very possible for Barry Bonds to eclipse 755 home runs lifetime if he did become a DH in the American League, as Hank Aaron did. However, since he says he has no interest in leaving the Giants after his contract expires, 755 should remain intact for a while longer.

12

I think it would be very possible for Barry Bonds to eclipse 755 home runs lifetime if he did become a DH in the American League, as Hank Aaron did. However, since he says he has no interest in leaving the Giants after his contract expires, 755 should remain intact for a while longer.

13

Maybe, maybe not. He’s breaking down. It’ll take him four years at ~40 home runs from right now to do it. Even if he didn’t have to play in the field, I don’t know that he’d remain healthy enough to do it.

14

Tangentially related to the OP, a play happened tonight that rarely occurs:

stealing of home (Mike Sweeney of the Royals against the Yankees)

Catch sportscenter and you’ll see that and the Braves’ 5-6-3 double play.

15

I think the most likely thing to happen next is actually:

g) after the next major strike people lose interest in the game almost entirely, which means it will cease to air on tv regularly because advertisers will see it only as a good way to lose money.

They might not strike in September, but there’s always a next time, and it’ll probably be sooner than later.

16

© is most likely, with (F) bringing up the end.