In one of those "classic" SHTF scenarios, how long do you think you'll live, realistically?

In My Humble Opinion
1

This should probably be a poll, but I’ve never figured out how to make one, sorry.

Anyway, over the past couple of weeks I’ve been watching a bunch of How to Survive/Be a Good Prepper type videos. Mostly sort of realistic ones, as in, the economy crashes or the Internet/Electric system fails, not Alien Invasion or Zombie apocalypse. Lots and lots of stuff about what supplies you should amass, what old time skills you should learn, how to keep from becoming a target of envious not-so-good preppers, how to defend your home, which unusual business you should scavenge for what (We should hit liquor stores for Bic lighters and cardboard boxes, not for booze??)

Ages ago, in the sixties, I’d decided there was no point in my trying to build survival capacity in case of a nuclear war. We lived less than a mile from an Air Force base and I figured it would be a target for ashification in the first exchange rounds, so why bother?

And I feel much the same way about these SHTF scenarios. I’m in my 70s now and in less than wonderful health, and dependent on a whole slew of medications to control diabetes and heart disease and bad kidneys. IOW, I’m a goner when the first of my 90 day allotments of whichever drug runs out first. No way can humanity count on me to be the hero who leads mankind to re-begin the long climb up to a new civilization.

I don’t really know what I started reading them, the first was idle curiosity, but YouTube being what it is, once I viewed one, well, it seemed half my suggested videos are in that vein. (Is there a trick to tell YT I’ve actually seen plenty now?)

So, how about you? How long do you think you’ll live in one of those End of Civilization scenarios?

I think the major categories are:

  • A few months or less. For reasons of health or being slaughtered by more aggressive compatriots.
  • Maybe six months. Until all the scavengeable supplies run out and I starve, or maybe suicide because I just cannot take the lack of TV/internet any longer.
  • A year or two. Gradual attrition or simple lack of will to keep living in the new reality.
  • Effectively forever! I will become the Supreme Leader of the survivors I’ve somehow convinced to supply my needs.
2

For me, probably a few months or less. I don’t have many survival/“Boy Scout”-type skills, I’m not good in a fight, I’m over 60, and I’m diabetic – I’m not insulin-dependent, but I do need oral meds.

Also, for other readers, as the OP never spelled out what “SHTF” stands for, I’m fairly certain from context that it’s “Shit Hits the Fan.”

3

You are correct about the meaning of “SHTF.”

As of right now, I could probably expect to live out my previously ordained lifespan, but that could of course change on a moment’s notice.

4

It depends on whether or not I will be exposed to radioactivity or a serious pandemic. Since I live in Europe, where community ties are relatively strong, I may be able to live more than six months. People will reorganize community authority, focus on regional trade, and shift their diets. They may even never leave the city. Instead, they will work on creating alliances and building local fortifications. In some cases, groups of people may move to better defendable areas, which may have more food or superior opportunities. As an individual, if you’re not seriously ill or crippled, you can survive for years if you can make yourself useful in these new circumstances. This would be my strategy.

5

Another common term for this scenario is TEOTWAWKI, or, “The End Of The World As We Know It”.

In most of the “realistic” versions, I’d rate it at a few months. Oh, I’d probably be capable of making it closer to 6 or so, but I strongly suspect that I’d “opt out” of continuing to live much past that.

I’m in my early 50s, in decent health, and no meds. I even have some semi-useful sub-skills, as I’ve had a half dozen or so blacksmithing classes (my father in law has a rating, and I know how to use and have access to his equipment).

It would be hard, it would be brutal, and it would be possible.

The problem, as in almost all these scenarios, is other people. Sure, I have minor prepper tendencies, I have temp stable food and water for weeks, and enough firearms and ammunition to keep myself reasonably safe for that time.

But others don’t need a lot of ammo if they burn you out, creep in while I’m sleeping exhausted, or take my wife hostage. Other people are going to be more desperate in short order, and I don’t have a huge support group to team up with.

I figure once the certainty of the scenario hit, given my inability to protect my wife who has more health issues than I have, combined with my inability to care for my parents (630 miles away in SHTF might as well be the moon), or properly care for my beloved pets… I don’t think I’d be able to convince myself to keep going.

Thankfully, I’m pretty sure something (or someone) else will kill be first. No fire services mean that with Colorado’s high winds and dry climate, someone cooking with open fire for the first time is going to set off city wide fires. Or lack of heating during winter causing similar fires (or flat out freezing to death).

6

I’m optimistic that most facilities we rely on will be maintained because there are people who know stuff who would step up and fix them. I am not convinced a devastating apocalypse would be all that disastrous. But if the basic facilities weren’t ever back online, I guess I’d just starve. I rely too much on prepared foods.

7

Well, my wife and I are pretty good shots (we go to the range twice a month) We usually have about 1000 rounds of ammo on hand.

I also have a powerful and very, very accurate air gun (I worked out the ballistics, it’s about a .22 short). I could pump it up manually, but that’s a real pain. I have a special electric compressor for it. The gun takes 3000 psi.

Rabbits are in abundance around here. Neither one of us have ever fished.

We have a garden for greens. But that would have to be moved indoors. We have room for it but only two grow lights. I don’t think we have any extra seeds. And it’s not that diverse right now.

We have electric bikes.

But that brings us to electricity. We are 100% solar for electricity. But it’s on what’s called net metering. So we send extra to the grid and pull it back down at night. If we went to a battery storage system that would be solved. But I have no idea how to do that. So right now, if the grid goes down, so does our solar. I donno for sure, maybe it would work during the day.

Realistically we’d probably be toast, but we sort of have a toe hold.

8

I asked a similar question last Fall. Here’s a link, just for reference.

I was feeling pretty optimistic about my chances at that time, having a lot of camping experience, and feeling like I’m pretty resourceful in general.

But the general consensus was that a few days ‘roughing it’ out in the woods with food you brought with you from the store and camping supplies from REI is nowhere near the same thing as a real survival situation. And they’re probably right. I’m generally in decent health, take no meds, but I’m old and out of shape. In my younger days I’d probably do better than some, and even today I think I’d have some skills I could bring to a tattered but hardy band of survivors. I’d maybe last a few months, maybe even a year.

BTW, I hate to be that guy, but it’s so perfect I can’t resist: great username / post combo!

9

I would last as long as I could get levothyroxin or desiccated beef thyroid. I suppose deer thyroid would work too? I’d be playing around trying to stay vertical, but it wouldn’t be easy.

As for skills mine are better than most, not as good as some. Being able to shoot well doesn’t help if you don’t have a gun. I do have beans and lentils I could plant though.

Eventually I would just slowly peter out. One night I’d go to sleep and never wake up again. Not the worst way to go.

10
My Expectations for my survival post-civilization
  • Die almost immediately / suicide
  • A few months or less
  • Maybe 6 months
  • A year or two
  • Effectively indefinitely
  • I will be Supreme Leader
  • Other (I’ll explain)
0 voters
11

Poll just above.

FYI, they’re easy. Click the [+] button at the upper right of the edit box, then scroll down to “Build poll” & click that. That’ll bring up a wizard that’ll help you make all the entries you need.

12

I’m in my mid-70s. I have no illusions about my ability to survive very long, even though I have some firearms and some skill with them. Ain’t gonna happen.

But…it has sometimes occurred to me that, as an electrical contractor, I would probably have some value to a group of survivors. It’s a pretty common skill set to have, but it’s got to have some value in the post-apocalyptic world. Carpenters, electricians, people who can hunt effectively, fishermen/women, etc. I mean, there are a lot of engine-driven generators, solar arrays, and other electrical generating systems out there that can be relocated and repurposed. Many of the basic materials will survive and can be salvaged for re-use. Having an effective electrical system would be a huge advantage.

So I think there’s a decent chance that I could make it a few years if I fall in with a group of people who could use my knowledge and experience. Unfortunately, I doubt it will be the Swedish Volleyball Team.

13

I have the one and only resource that would actually matter: A large extended family.

14

Let’s see… I’m in my early-mid 50s, in ok shape but not great, and only take hypertension meds.

I suspect weight loss and exercise might not be much of an issue, so maybe the BP meds wouldn’t be a huge issue anyway. And it’s the sort of thing that isn’t likely to kill me for a long time anyway.

Outdoors wise… I’ve got a pretty complete car-camping set of gear, but little in the way of backpacking. I mean, I could cobble together a set between my sons and myself, but I suspect we’d all need all our gear.

Skills wise, I’m probably in better shape than most. Eagle scout back in the day, current scout leader, and I’ve got two sons in scouts. So I’m kind of tuned up on my outdoor skills relative to say… 20 years ago.

I’m a gardener and in the past was a fairly avid recreational shooter. I was never a competitor, but I’ve always been a decent enough shot. I’ve also inherited a weird mix of bird hunting and old C&R milsurp guns. So I could hunt if I wanted to, although not very far away because I have no scopes or anything.

Still, I suspect that there’s a lot more to this than just having some basic skills and equipment. I bet there would be a lot of things that I’d have to learn the hard way, and I’d need a fair amount of luck for those things not to seriously dent my survival prospects. I mean, getting the runs goes from an inconvenience to life-threatening in that situation. Same thing for stuff like dehydration, and a host of other situations and conditions.

15

But do you really think you’d die in under a year without those meds?

Obviously your blood sugar, heart and kidneys would get worse without your meds. But I don’t know if that means you’d die rapidly or not. I guess it depends on how severe your diseases are.

According to this, lowering your A1C from 9.9%, down to 5.9% adds about 3.8 years to life expectancy. Which implies people with poorly controlled diabetes would still live into their 70s. They’d just have more serious health issues.

Life expectancy is increased 3.8 years for someone with poorly controlled diabetes as reflected by an A1c of 9.9% improving to a normal level of 5.9%.

Which does matter for health and longevity, but it doesn’t mean people in their 50s or 60s will start dropping like flies tomorrow either.

For me I could survive without my meds, but my health will be worse. Also due to various musculoskeletal issues, I am not going to be very helpful in manual labor. So I will probably not live that long. I can’t grow my own food, I can’t perform intensive manual labor, and the skills I have aren’t really applicable to a post-apocalypse world.

One fun thing I did while screwing around with AI programs is ask how many calories you can store in 1 cubic meter of space.

A cubic meter of crisco would have 8 million calories. Flour 2 million, sugar 3 million, protein powder 1.6 million. So you can store years worth of macronutrients in a very small space (although they would weigh quite a bit).

So assuming I bought a lot of multivitamins and electrolyte powders, water purification technologies, and got a couple cubic meters of macronutrient liquids and powders, in theory I could last for 10+ years. But this assumes I bought the food beforehand and I store it so it doesn’t go bad.

16

I answered a year or two, but realistically it depends on how long my dependents can make it. If I were 100% on my own and was able to get as far from other people as I can, I could probably last about as long as I’m likely to live anyway.

17

No guns. No garden. No prepper supplies. No prepper skills. If folks need a kid wrangler, or someone with middling knowledge of how to cook and bake, or someone who used to garden, I might be useful; but I’m much likelier to be a footnote.

18

My body doesn’t make any insulin. So the end of insulin availability is my expiration date.

19

Hey, I’ve got two out of three! Like Robinson Ca-ruso, primitive as can be.

Remember, you can always band together with your more aggressive neighbors to raid the larders of preppers.

20

For the record I am 50 years OLD not married and have NO children.

I have numerous health issues so if the SHTF scenario was severe enough I would serious consider ending it all because:

  1. I would NOT survive long without my medicine anyway
  2. I am not physically healthy enough to contribute meaningfully
  3. I would NOT want to be a burden on my extended family and other survivors/