The survival of Assad’s dictatorship in Syria seems increasingly unlikely. Is there any homogeneity to the opposition forces? Should they succeed in toppling Assad, is there any sense that the replacement government and its leaders will tend to be “pro-west”, “islamic fundamentalists”, zealous anti-Israel, or something else (specifically); or is it truly impossible to make a prediction that’s nothing more than a guess?
I do not have cites to prove any points. I think this might be an opinion question really.
My take is that this will end up like Libya… that is, the death of an artificial nation state made up of different tribes and religions formerly held together by a whacked out dictator and money grubbing clique of followers… turning into a failed state with lots of violence and a steady downgrading of quality of life for the civilian population.
It’s all so 21st century… at least that’s what they used to say in the 22nd century.
The Alawite-driven governement is shooting people. The most immediate question is, will the sunnite majority massacre the minorities most directly involved in the current tyranny?
Not that I will be sorry to see Assad go, but I think there will be a massacre of Alawites when that happens.
Hama rules are going to bite them in the ass.
I don’t think a massacre of the Alawite population will be a foregone conclusion
The population of Syria is 74% Sunni Muslim, with a 13% Shia Muslim population, 10% Christian and 3% Druze.
Arabs form 90% of the population while Kurds make up about 10%.
The Kurds are probably more interested in some sort of union (economic or political) with the Iraqi Kurds than revenge.
There also is an intense rivalry between Damascus, the capital and Allepo the largest city.
This could prove to be burdensome or not. The groups could simply agree to go their own way and there would be no issues or they could fight like in Lebanon, which would be a mess.
The one thing is the situation in Syria is much more complex than Libya. There will be no more UN Security Council resolutions in favor of intervention since countries outside the West feel the West overstepped their mark.
Israel is a factor, because it will help certain sides on the sly with supplies and information. Which ever side it feels will stabilize its borders
Since this requires speculation, it’s probably more suited to IMHO than GQ.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
Don’t forget-the Assad family has had 40+ years of controlling Syria, so there are trusted Assad hacks in charge of the army, the police, and government.
These people don’t want to give p power-they would be willing to send Bashir packing (which I suspect will happen soon).
As for the Alawites, they will fight to stay in power-it that means killing a few thousand people, its nothing to them.