How far would ISIS have really got? Think just local actors involved.
(Not sure. Maybe this is for great debates?)
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Yep, seems better suited to GD to me.
Moving thread from General Questions to Great Debates.
ISIS would have taken over all of Iraq, overthrown Assad and taken all of Syria, then Lebanon and Jordan.
The real worry comes when they start stirring up unrest in Turkey and Egypt…
They would probably be able to consolidate and oppressively administer at least as much territory as the Taliban did.
My suspicion is that they’d have probably taken tenuous hold of a big chunk of Syria and Iraq, and if they tried incursions into Turkey, they’d be met with brutal, overwhelming force; the Turks don’t fuck around when it comes to military action.
The Jordanians would have also given them a rude surprise, as they’re the most well trained and professional army in the region. (after doing a bit of looking, it appears that they already have.)
The Saudis are in a weird position- there’s popular support for ISIS, but the government wants nothing to do with them, so they have to tread a fine line.
So ultimately they’d have got about as far as they did, and maybe more of Iraq and Syria, but I don’t think they’d conquer the entirety of either nation.
I’d think the bigger threat from ISIS in the region would be terrorism, not conquest.