My thinking is that, on average, Americans work for something like 35 years. The ones that die or get sick, whatever, lowering the average, and the ones that keep working 'till they can get decent SS benefits probably work around 45 years before retiring.
Off hand, it looks to me like raising the retirement age would lead to increasing unemployment by 1.5-2% as soon as it is enacted.
What say the dopers?
I don’t have a cite right now but I have read that one reason it is so tough for new college grads to find jobs is that older people are putting off retirement due to their 401Ks tanking and from general nervousness. So, your hypothesis is very plausible, though I don’t know the magnitude of the problem. On the other hand, working people spend more, so there might be a linked increase in consumption which might offset the problem.
I took early retirement because of marginal health and someone younger got my job. Were it not for early retirement, SS and MediCare I would have remained on the job performing marginally.
Aren’t the crybabies in France complaining and rioting about raising their retirement age partially for that reason? (and the fact that they’re generally lazy, at least compared to Americans)
Yeah…they are whining about not being able to retire until 62! A two-year increase!
Who is going to hire 20 million old geezers ?
Where are jobs for all these old people who have been laid off, and most of which have numerous health problems?
How much will the cost of employee health care plans go up if 20 million old geezers who are half way dying are added to the group plan?
(note: be specific, name specific job openings for all 20 million currently available job openings, real company names and their addresses )
Well their medical costs would likely go down, since said geezers would be on Medicare.
Also, your requirement for specific addresses is silly. You need to look at this statistically, not with a mass of anecdotes. If I find 1000 locations that would hire elderly it wouldn’t prove a thing. What if they are the only thousand?
Although, if you must have one, Wal-Mart. In your town. 
Originally Posted by Susanann View Post
Who is going to hire 20 million old geezers ?
Where are jobs for all these old people who have been laid off, and most of which have numerous health problems?
How much will the cost of employee health care plans go up if 20 million old geezers who are half way dying are added to the group plan?
(note: be specific, name specific job openings for all 20 million currently available job openings, real company names and their addresses )
They would not be on Medicare, because Medicare eligibility would also be raised to age 70. (Keeping medicare at age 65 and raising ss to 70 would not make any sense at all, so of course, nobody under 70 would be able to get medicare and would have to get health care from those strange unknown employers who currently have 20 million job openings that only old people can do).
What are you talking about 1000? Raising the retirement age to 70 would mean more like 10 - 20 million elderly people needing jobs right now. 1000 open jobs is not even a drop in the bucket.
We need to know where 10 million good paying unfilled jobs are for people aged 60 - 70, and we need to know exactly(names and locations) where they are… right now!
The good jobs are probably the ones they have now. The issue would be more employment for younger people, given that you cannot fire people for being old.
People who are 65 or 60 are not necessarily falling apart.
The money you would get from SS at 70 would be (and is) more than you get at 65 now. The savings would come from foregone payments from current retirement age to the new one, and the greater number of people who would die before getting anything. Given that the extra time would also increase the value of people’s 401Ks, I’d suspect many would retire early anyhow. Today you are allowed to forgo getting SS even after you stop working, in return for a bigger payout when you start later.
I don’t see any reason why Medicare wouldn’t be kept, though there should be some sort of benefit baked in to encourage people still working to stay on employer plans as long as possible.
In any case 5 years is a big, big change. I’d say one or two years later each decade would be more plausible.