I wrote up a big post with cites and such about how important shipping is to Pakistan last night, but my phone swallowed it when I switched tabs to copy a cite one too many times and accidentally refreshed the SDMB page. So let me just say – what XT and CarnalK said. I don’t defend Pakistani policy because I’m a huge fan of that country, but because it’s unfair to criticize your opponents when they’re not even in the wrong. There’s plenty to dislike about Pakistani policy, but a blockade would be an existential threat for them.
Getting blockaded = Pakistan’s economy suffering, a lot of trade grinds to a halt, but Pakistan still shares land borders with other nations (unlike, say, an island being blockaded)
Whereas nuking India and getting nuked in return would be far more catastrophic. It would be greatly foolish for Pakistan to go nuclear over a mere blockade.
Pakistan has 3 land borders. Iran, India and Afghanistan. When 95% of all their trade gets shut down (ie their “economy suffering” :rolleyes: ) which land routes do you think will pick up the slack?
BTW, there’s been some dispute about whether the Pakistanis used AMRAAMs (and thus F-16s) in their intercept of the IAF MiG-21('s? - it’s unclear to me if one or two Indian MiGs were shot down).
The Indians showed off pieces of an AIM-120C, which they claim they recovered after the aerial battle.
The Pakistanis have claimed that no F-16s were involved in the operation. Further, some on the Pakistani side claimed that the AMRAAMs markings indicate it had been sold to Taiwan, not Pakistan. Now it seems pretty clear that that is not correct, as there is a public record of a 2006 contract modification selling 500 AMRAAMs to Pakistan, with that contract number (FA8675-05-C-0070/P00028).
This is relevant because apparently there were strict conditions for the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, restricting their use in cross-border incursions with India, conditions which Pakistan appears to have violated.
Also, India is apparently still claiming to have shot down a Pakistani F-16. If true, it would be a rather severe blow to the F-16’s air-to-air record (the only acknowledged air-to-air kill of an F-16 was by a Greek Mirage 2000 in 1996). Pakistan has denied this.
ETA: Both sides seem to be spinning every detail furiously.
This.
By the way, the vulnerability to blockade applies to India, too – their largest cities rely on food shipments through their ports to keep people from starving. Of course, India has the superior navy, to prevent that exact scenario.
There have been multiple air engagements over several days, not just one which led to the shoot down. There have been several releases of ordnance. The denial about an F-16 being used was for the shoot download not a general denial of F-16 being used at all, which would be weird since there are multiple pictures and videos released by the Pakistan Government showing F-16 in ops. All that AMRAAM debris proves is that an AMRAAM was fired sometime between this evening and 2007. Proves nothing about am F-16 loss one way or the other. If it had been shot down, I think i5 would have been admitted, these things are impossible to hide and PAF has never done so in the past.(In the last 10 years a
3 and an AEW A/C were lost, and that was admitted, and each are a lot more valuable than a single F16)
The claim that their were “strict conditions” against use against India is laughable. Again there have been several intercepts over the years by F-16s of Indian A/C and the three wings of F-16 in the PAF are all deployed at bases- PAF Bholari, PAF Jacobabad and PAF Sargodha, which all on the India front, F-16 are notably not employed at PAF Samugali or PAF Peshawar or PAF Mianwlai which are either for Western border or for both fronts.
F-16 have been used less in the recent ops than JF17, since the later have an in flight refuelling capability.
ETA: In response to HurricaneDitka
Regarding the migs, it has been posted that the mig 21’s were baited and got sucked into Pak airspace and that would make it self defense for using the F-16. The incursion into Indian airspace that prompted it, were those chinese knock offs. Not sure what the rules are if PakAF does a BVR shot from inside their airspace and takes out a target on the Indian side.
The actual wreckage that they are showing from what i have seen, has been internet identified as the housing for the mig 21 jet engine. So time will tell, for fessing up.
Oh, yeah… I’m starting from zero. You realize something can exist then escalate above the norm under the political tag of ‘‘restraint’’ ?? – wherein restraint being called for supports my argument and hints at your ignorance of reality. The ‘equipment’ comment is important, because purchases by either country of US or Russian built planes and weapons can change things in just months.
Few follow this day-to-day over decades. Nonetheless, things exist and then get worse, and implying they will get worse doesn’t imply they don’t already exist.
SDMB mindset sucks.
SDMB mindset? You don’t think him being a Pakistan resident forms his opinion a little more than his message board preference?
Unfortunately, his value as a resident of Pakistan (to me as a Doper) is diminished significantly by SDMB culture, which he demonstrated quite clearly.
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So much for Pakistan handing over the pilot leading to reduced tensions; it looks like both sides are back to artillery shellling each other again now.
The source is Indian, so probably take it with a grain of salt, but it did offer some (alleged) details about the US agreement with Pakistan over the sale of F-16s:
If that bit is true, it’s going to be awkward for Pakistan if AIM-120C-5 serial number CC12947 was there for the last inventory and not there for the next one. Even more awkward if they’re short an F-16.
What specifically is there about this “culture” which diminishes his value and how do you avoid this “culture” which makes your opinion more valuable?
The tensions have escalated a great deal more recently.
Naturally there has been a response from Pakistan:
Is there going to be another war between India and Pakistan?
Sure hope not. Neither of them seems reluctant to go nuclear.
There are two answers to that. Short one is no, the other is fuck no..
I’m very glad, but from where comes your confidence?
I appreciate the positive comment. And I certainly value your knowledge of the area. Both countries have a lot on their plates right now and a war, even a brief one, would go very badly for both sides.
Nope. But as Pakistan PM Imran Khan and his Army chief openly suggested, there will be an escalation in terrorist attacks on India, both within Kashmir and elsewhere in India, carried out of terror groups cultivated and controlled by the Pakistani state. This will draw retaliation from India. Matters could escalate, but an all-out war is very unlikely, much less a nuclear one. BTW, the decision to revoke the special status for Kashmir is one of the most momentous positive steps taken in regards to Kashmir in the past 70 years.
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Positive step… if your aim is to cause much more internal instability within the Indian Union. Make even pro India Kashmiri politicians turn against the center. Cause other secessionist insurgent elswhere to redouble their efforts towards militancy rather than dialogue
Yeah, if that was the aim, it was the best step ever.