"*BRITAIN gave warning of the “very real and very disturbing” possibility of nuclear war between India and Pakistan last night as the Government prepared an emergency mission to Delhi and Islamabad.
Jack Straw is to fly to the capitals next week to try to avert “the most serious conflict in the world in terms of potential casualties and the use of nuclear weapons”.
Ministers believe the situation is now so tense that just one provocation could trigger catastrophe, and the murder of a prominent Muslim leader yesterday plunged the region even deeper into trouble.*"
While we in the USA continue our ever-present navel-gazing, it appears the India-Pakistan conflict is heating up.
The debate you ask? Will America get involved? Will Americans care (before the fact)? Is this escalation inevitable? Will this story make Page One in the USA early enough?
Personally, if these reports are accurate, the entire War on Terrorism will change drastically in a very short time if and when any war breaks out between India and Pakistan.
Well, considering how much military presence we have in the region at this very moment, I can’t imagine that the government DOESN’T know and ISN’T considering doing SOMETHING.
What that something might be, I don’t know, but again, with so much focus and manpower in the area right now, I wouldn’t imagine that we’d need as much lead time as the UK to react quickly, seeing as how we’ve already got heavy contact there. I would assume that there’s grave concern, and that wheels are turning as we speak on our side, but that’s just my guess.
Just 'cause it isn’t being reported doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
Sophisticated or not, the fact remains that both sides are despise each other with a passion that may yet turn it into the next Palestine/Israel conflict. Or perhaps it already is that conflict. Really quite sad. I guess the Muslims were kinda jerks to go off and seccede, and the Idians are jerks not to get on with life. And then they keep kiling each other in the new countries, et. all.
Recently the Washington Post confirmed something which we here at the SDMB already deduced. Unfortunately I think that particular thread may have gone the way of the dodo.
In a nutshell, the last time things started boiling over, in 1999, Pakistan began preparing its nuclear-tipped missiles. This was done without the consent of Prime Minister Sharif; he was apparently unaware of the mobilization until he was clued in by President Clinton in an emergency meeting at the White House.
So who was it who was mobilizing the Pakistani nukes? Well, the prime candidate would have been General Pervez Musharraf, the fellow who shortly thereafter overthrew Sharif and took over as Pakistan’s de facto leader.
What most people were unaware of at the time was that even in '99 Pakistan had IRBMs capable of throwing nukes. That means that both sides have them, with 3-5 minute flight times. Command and control holdups being what they are, that may mean that the launch decision rests with local commanders.
Many of us have said it before. There is no other region in the world where the probability of a nuclear exchange is so high. It’s so high that I myself consider it to be an eventuality unless something can be done to radically reduce tensions.
And I’ll mention this, though I shouldn’t. There has been frequent speculation in recent years that Indian IRBMs are being designed and built which have a range of over two thousand miles, and other speculation about ship-launched IRBMs. If this potential war turns into a jihad, there are places outside of Pakistan which may be targeted as well… I think I’ve already been too irresponsible in my speculation, but I recommend everyone take a look at a map of the Indian Ocean.
I am very afraid for these people, and for myself as well.
Y’know, I’m not going to attempt any kind of analysis of the political situation between India and Pakistan - right now, I’m so frustrated by just about everyone in the world that my contribution would likely amount to a rephrased version of “stop trying to kill each other, you poopieheads!”
But I think it’s fascinating that people who want to criticize the United States can find any excuse to do so. India and Pakistan, two age old rivals, are on the brink of war, and as yet, the United States has no response. So Duckster accuses the US of “navel gazing.”
So, hypothetically, let’s say the US gets involved. How long before everyone starts complaining about “imperialist Americans sticking their noses where they don’t belong?”
It’s tiresome, really, and only serves to promote the us vs. them mentality that’s causing trouble nowadays.
This is definately getting hairy. India has positioned warships of its coast and very near Pakistan, to go along with the million or so troops already on the border. India’s PM told the troops to “prepare for a decisive battle” according to CNN.
It does seem odd that this isn’t the lead headline in every news source given the stakes. I do hold out hope that even if they do start shooting, they’d have enough sense to restrain themselves from using nukes. Given the animosity that has built up though, maybe that’s just wishful thinking.
Holy crap, Sofa King. That is one frightening link. It is unbelievable that nuclear weapons could be launched without the knowledge or consent of the head of state.
I also agree with storyteller that this is getting so tiresome, it’s impossible to actually support one side. These damn countries have already fought 3 wars over this godforsaken patch of rocks, ice, and mountains. They have solved nothing in 55 years and it’s getting old.
Your implication being what, Sofa King? Are you implying Pakistan’s targets would include U.S. warships, Diego Garcia, or Israel? I doubt it.
I do agree that the 3-4 minute flight times make a “use them or lose them” launch policy a frightening possibility, especially in the case of a radar error paired with an edgy field commander. I’m also guessing that Pakistain suspects that India’s probable attack mode would not be one of incrementalism, but rather to knock out as many Pakistani nukes as possible on a first strike, absorb the retaliatory blow, and then empty their arsenal thereafter on conventional counterforce sites, all in a prelude to a coordinated air/sea/ground invasion. (It will be interesting to see what position China takes.)
The radiologic fallout in India alone would present problems that would make Bhopal look like a walk in the park.
The need for my own thread having been superseded by this one, I’ll ask:
What will the U.S./China do if a nuclear exchange occurs? Our troops are on Pakistani soil right now. What if some of them get dusted by a deep Indian nuke strike? And as Tsunamisurfer mentioned, what will China’s response to receiving the brunt of the fallout from such an exchange?
You know, I have utterly no idea what the US could really do (apart from offer to host peace/disengagement talks) to defuse the situation.
And secondly, I wonder whose side the US will take, if any? Pakistan is a current unofficial ally, and while there is a string strain of nasty Islamic fundamentalism, we could see some reduction in MidEast-American hostilities by backing Pakistan against India, which has never been a real friend. This might also improve Sino-American relationships - as CHina might be more friendly if it percieved the US as tipping the scales decidedly against the nuclear power to their west.
Which nuclear power? What is China’s position? I know they’ve cracked down on Islamic fundamentalists in their western cities, but I don’t have any idea what they think of India or Pakistan.
China borders on both India and Pakistan. Perhaps more importantly, China borders on the Kashmir provinces which are currently and perpetually in dispute.
If I recall correctly, India still claims a rather large section of the Kashmir which is currently held by China. The two nations fought one another over Himalayan territory in the early 1960s, and a large chunk of Kashmir was opportunistically nipped off by the Chinese, which they continue to hold.
An Analysis piece, indicating that as far back as '96, India had IRBMs with manueverable re-entry vehicles. That’s scary as all hell. Further, India had potential ICBM capability then, which is likely pretty close to final readiness. Pakistan’s launchers are more crude, but are more than capable of reaching most of India, as well as all of Afganistan, Iran, and even into parts of China.
Acronym.org’s helpful page o’ links to world commentary on the subject.
A review of a book that addresses the religious underpinnings of the South Asia crisis.
And here is an analysis of US Foreign Policy in light of the nuclear issue.
Some of these will be slanted and/or dated, so use your judgement. I merely provide these as a starting point. Do your own research before you make up your mind.
