Insurrection Act on April 20?

This op-ed ran in the SF Chronicle last month. It might be paywalled, so here’ the lead paragraph:

The order is legit: Hegseth and Noem will report on April 20 whether or not Trump should invoke the Insurrection Act in response a supposed emergency on the border. What happens after that is speculative, but I’ve read a follow-on article with absolutely terrifying scenarios: mass protests which provoke violence, arrests of anti-trumpers, martial law, and the end of American democracy.

Talk me off the ledge.

Might be a good year to skip the 4:20 celebration:

The annual 4/20 celebrations continue to gain popularity, drawing large crowds to public gatherings where cannabis enthusiasts come together to mark the occasion.

I would love to talk you off the ledge, but I’m very worried about this kind of crap myself. Democracy is endangered in the US. This is just one scenario where things can go to Martial law and then full on Fascism.

We are all living on the ledge; the ledge is our home now.

There will, of course, be ‘right-minded’ people who will argue that this can’t happen, that the courts will stop this, that Republican members in Congress won’t want their legislative authority subordinated by executive overreach, that as long as the Constitution stands and at there is at least some notional judicial pushback against executive overreach, true undermining of democratic institutions can’t happen, and “the pendulum will always swing back”.

How is that working out so far?

Stranger

I think what’s ominous about this: people here have speculated for years on dictatorial moves Trump could make, but in vague generalities. We now have a specific action (the EO directive) and a timeframe (April 20). This seems very very real now,

April 20? Führers Geburtstag? [those are two links] Really?
I am starting to believe that he has read one book after all.

Slight digression…

“Last April, perhaps in a surge of Czech nationalism, Ivana Trump told her lawyer Michael Kennedy that from time to time her husband reads a book of Hitler’s collected speeches, My New Order, which he keeps in a cabinet by his bed. Kennedy now guards a copy of My New Order in a closet at his office, as if it were a grenade. Hitler’s speeches, from his earliest days up through the Phony War of 1939, reveal his extraordinary ability as a master propagandist.”

–Vanity Fair, 7/2015

Um…Ivana claimed that Donald Trump regularly read from a book? Hitler’s speeches, which I understand were really long?

It is difficult to imagine Hegseth and Noem will report otherwise. They aren’t there to be honest or reasonable.

So how do we fight this? Some state AGs may sue based on this being a bogus emergency but what can we the people do?

I have been calling and yelling at my senator’s voice mail (no ine answers anymore) and showing up to every protest I can. Boycott Target, patronize Costco, done. What else?

Yeah, here’s the thing about ‘trolling the libs’ by LARPing as a Nazi, it means your comfortable with being seen as a Nazi.

I was really hoping that American fascism would be something new and not the warmed over fascism that couldn’t even win a war.

“What a fucking baby. Just like Hitler, a fucking baby!”

Stranger

Takin’ It to the Streets, Power to the People, Revolution, Street Fighting Man…hopefully no Ohio.
That may be just what Trump wants – violence in the streets, so he can declare martial law. I’m wiling to take that chance. I’m going to my local Hands Off protest this Saturday.

Almost every such prediction with a specific date and specific action is false. These occur by the thousands on social media. I don’t discount the general fears and cautions (I was skeptical of the people crying “Project 2025!, but damned if they weren’t correct); I just doubt that Hitler’s birthday is really the day. That would imply they’re actual fans of Nazism, not just copying the playbook for their own power.

Check here to confirm that Project 2025 does not mention the Insurrection Act:

All 922 Pages of Project 2025

It also does not mention expanding into Panama, Greenland, or Canada.

It has chapters on tariffs – pro and con.

It says that “Congress should also consider whether public-sector unions are appropriate.” Congress. It does not say for the President to get rid of most bargaining units by decree.

Did Trump go in the direction of Project 2025? Yes, and then he kept on going.and going.

Do you think Trump will get a report from Hegseth and Noem that says “ooh, border situation is out of control” (and he will), and just throw it in a drawer?

To somewhat talk you off the ledge, I am not sure that this is evidence one way or another of Trump going full dictator.

The most direct understanding of what he is asking in this order is to have the secretaries of defense and homeland security determine whether he “needs” military Troops patrol the border. This is something he has said he was going to do while campaigning and while its authoritarian, constitutionally dubious, and a huge waste of resources its not quite at the level of martial law arresting the opposition. Truth be told in my opinion his putting troops on the border less worrisome that the flights to El Salvador he’s already doing.

Now I’m not saying that he won’t try to expand this into a larger mandate to kill protestors, but that would require significant political capital to make that shift, and if he has that level of political capital, he doesn’t need to start with the window dressing of fighting an insurrection at the border, he can just directly declare that there are Anarchists, Communists and Atheists who are trying to undermine our great nation and need to be rooted out and go from there.

So basically if he has small scale authoritarianism in mind then this is a necessary first step, and if he has large scale dictatorship in mind, he can do that without taking this step so he is no more likely or unlikely to commit large scale dictatorship based on this order.

I’m not quite sure this is addressed to me.

I am quite prepared to believe that the information in the op ed is, in essence, correct; I am not prepared to believe that it is happening on 20 April.

I also don’t think Trump bases his decisions on reports, but how would I know what he does when presented with one? I presume he makes any decisions based on the report-presenter’s oral summary, because I’m not convinced he reads.

He bases reports on his decisions.

Update: surprisingly enough, Hegseth and Noem will recommend that Trump not invoke the Insurrection Act.