Interest rates, inflation, and the economy

My brain won’t let me understand the fundamentals of the Fed raising or lowering interest rates and its effect on the economy.

The basics that I do understand (correct me if I’m wrong):

  • Inflation is currently too high and trending in the wrong direction
  • In order to address this and rein in inflation, the Fed has increased the prime rate
  • The increase is treated as negative economic news, and will hit those who are already struggling the hardest (someone trying to buy a house or vehicle, someone with credit card debt)

This is where my confusion enters. Raising the prime is a strategy to improve the economy. To slow inflation.

So why is everyone (the media) treating this as a bad sign? Don’t we want to take measures to fix this? If they didn’t raise the prime rate, surely our economy would continue to worsen?

I know there are complexities to this, but it seems counterintuitive to see an attempt to fix the problem as a negative.

mmm

High inflation is often a sign that the economy is overheating, doing well. So, you raise interest rates (the Fed only normally controls very short interest rates, but long rates may also be affected), making it more expensive to borrow money, more expensive to buy and build things, so the economy slows down, people want to buy and build less, ask for fewer raises, and inflation slows.

This inflation is weirder – the economy seems to be fine, although the job market is kind of frozen – unemployment is pretty low, but there isn’t much happening in terms of job changing, consumers aren’t very happy, so the economy isn’t overheating. But, the wars in Ukraine and Iran are raising oil prices, which is an input to lots of other prices (consumer gas prices, diesel (which affects transportation costs), etc. So, this inflation seems to be caused more by a supply reduction than a demand increase.

I know this is GQ, but I’ll offer my opinion anyway. I’m not sure that raising rates when inflation is being caused by external supply shocks will do much. Unless, the Fed is ready to raise rates to the point where they put the US into recession, small increases won’t do much to curb the demand side for an economy that’s doing OK, but not gangbusters.

Anyway, in simple terms, overheating economy->increased demand, higher wages->inflation pressure. Raise rates->buy and build less->lower demand->economy cools->less inflation pressure. In this economy, oil prices rise->inflation pressure->raise rates->not clear yet.

I think I answered your question, but let me know if I missed anything.

Just a few comments that may help explain my confusion:

High inflation = economy doing well = whoa, we’d better do something about that (raise rates). Why do we want to fix an economy that is doing well?

Wait, we want people to buy less? We want people to earn less money? People buying and earning seems to be an indication that things are going well.

It seems that it is all so interconnected, that if you do X, Y will adjust (compensate) and you’ll be back where you started. If you do Y, X will adjust and you will be back where you started.

Put another way:

  • Inflation is high, but folks are earning and spending, so it’s all good
    or
  • Folks are not earning and spending, but inflation is in check, so it’s all good.

mmm

Because if inflation gets baked into expectations, it can lead to a spiral, which was one of the problems in the 70s.

People only get raises occasionally, so they will ask for even more today, because they want to stay ahead of rising prices. Companies can only occasionally raise rates, they see their costs (goods and labor) increasing, so they also preemptively raise prices, so they don’t fall behind.

If inflation is below a certain level, like 2 or 3%, people don’t give it much consideration, they essentially ignore it. But, if it’s persistently well above that, and they expect it to remain high or go higher, they will demand raises above that high rate, companies will try and raise prices above that high rate, and the cycle continues.

If the Fed can be proactive and show that they will do what they need to to keep inflation low, they will keep inflation expectations low, leading to a virtuous cycle of low inflation expectations leading to low inflation leading to low expectations.

The base rate is one of the very few parameters that is directly controllable. Which makes it a blunt instrument. When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

The Fed essentially controls the cost of money. Borrowed money can be used for many things. If money is cheap, it becomes easy to borrow larger amounts, and buy things for more money. Which has an inflationary effect.
For ordinary people buying a house is the big ticket item. Housing prices are highly dependant on the buyer’s income, and when the interest rates are low, people can borrow a lot more within that income and still be able to pay the interest. So more people have more money chasing a limited number of properties and driving up housing prices. Housing prices outstripping inflation is not a good thing, and eventually pushes many people out of the market. Further, continually increasing prices and cheap money makes real estate an attractive place for investment. Which further drives ordinary people out of the market. If you have already locked in a mortgage, rising interest rates hurt, but it isn’t you that is being targeted.

But this the only problem. Cheap money encourages all manner of investment behaviour. On the good side it encourages businesses to finance growth, which is good for the economy. On the bad side, cheap money encourages leveraged investments in speculative stocks and schemes. This can and does create bubbles. Any fool can make money in a rising market. An even bigger fool can borrow lots of money to invest in a rising market. (The biggest fool is the bank that lends the money to him.) A stock market roaring ahead really isn’t a sign of a healthy economy. It is often a sign of over eager speculation. A stock market (or any other market) bubble will eventually break, and that brings with it much worse economic pain. Increasing the cost of money, will, in theory, dampen down leveraged speculative investing. Sometimes it works.

As noted above - the problem is that the US economy - or indeed any modern economy - does not live in isolation. The Fed playing with the base rate does nothing to control the external factors driving the economy, or factors that are local but beyond its control. So inflation caused by spiking oil prices or large tariffs on goods won’t be fixed by raising rates. But inflationary behaviour caused by the availability of cheap money is. So choose your battles, and decide what you want to address.

The spectre of inflationary spirals as described by posters above remains in the minds of reserve banks worldwide. We haven’t seen one in a few decades, but the need to stamp one out early will figure large in the thoughts of the Fed. Recent history has seen the Fed act so more than once, and do so with good outcomes despite the significant short term pain. This rise is a drop in the ocean compared to those interventions. Whether such a tiny tweak as seen now will manage to turn the trend is another matter. I would view this more as the Fed putting a flag in the ground rather than a move that is itself expected to fix things. If indeed it is fixable at all.

Raising rates is a bad sign, not because raising rates is bad, but it is a sign that the Fed perceives that the economy is not operating well. (IMHO it has been obvious for a while that this is the case.)

One might note that very low interest rates are also a sign of a bad economy. Japan is the obvious example. Decades of economic stagnation, and the Japanese central bank has cut interest rates to essentially zero. And still nobody borrows to invest into building the economy. The once mighty juggernaught is moribund.

Economics is called the “dismal science” for a reason: all news is bad news for someone.

Keeping this nonpartisan, the Fed did remarkably well easing us out of covid-era inflation without a recession. So it is possible to reduce inflation without reducing demand so much that it causes a recession. Too early to tell if the Fed can get us out of the current inflation. But the only thing worse than trying and perhaps failing, is not trying and certainly failing.

The stock market and employment market depend on growth, and growth typically relies on the ability to borrow money, and if people and employers find it harder to borrow money, their stock stops climbing so fast, and they don’t create so many jobs.

We’re a country of borrowers and spenders, we don’t really like to consider that some of us are also savers and lenders who hold stacks of money (or repayment obligations) that we don’t want to see become worthless.

Everybody wants to see something done about inflation until the higher rates affect their ability to borrow money, or employers’ ability to provide jobs for them. Then we learn that what people really want is to do whatever they want, as long as they want, with no negative consequences or constraints.

True enough.

But LOTS of (COVID stimulus) dollars were chasing relatively few goods (supply chain shocks) at that point, so there was every reason to suspect an inflationary wildfire would burn if the Fed were laissez-faire.

I suspect there was less risk of recession under those circumstances than – potentially – there could be now, w/depleted household savings, increased household debt, and the tariff policies that are dramatically affecting trade.

[segue]

Inflation (to the OP) – at its essence – is when too many dollars chase too few goods.

Inflation can be viewed, in that sense, as giving methamphetamine to the construction crew in order to get your house built faster. In some ways, on some metrics, on some days, it may achieve the goal, but there’s quite often a price to pay along the way, and its usually paid – by definition – by those who are more/most vulnerable.

During inflation, borrowers and physical asset owners generally win, while savers and people on fixed incomes generally lose.

So what is a sign of a good economy, interest rate-wise?

I’m guessing stability?

Stability within a certain range of rates?

mmm

Interest rate wise, a good economy is one in which inflation and unemployment are low.

The Fed has what is known as the “dual mandate”. It is supposed to manage interest rates in such a way that inflation is between 0 and 2 percent per year, and the unemployment rate is low. Inflation has been above 2 percent since the pandemic. Low unemployment doesn’t have a strict number, but it’s generally agreed that we are there now.

The Fed tries to maintain a long-term average of 2% inflation.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC_LongerRunGoals.pdf

Price stability is essential for a sound and stable economy and supports the well-being of all Americans. The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee can specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory maximum employment and price stability mandates. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. The Committee is prepared to act forcefully to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

Which means that while they’ll raise interest rates to decrease inflation if it’s above 2%, they’ll also lower interest rates to increase inflation if the inflation rate is below 2%.