Interesting COVID stats (Harper’s Index - July)

The Quarantine Zone
1

% US College fall enrollment may decline: 15

New US jobs created since 2007: 21,275,000
Unemployment claims, first 4 wks: 22,026,000

% US small business owners who say won’t survive if Covid lasts 6 mos: 62
% restaurant owners who say so: 85
US restaurants perm. closed in March: 20,000

% Whites can work from home: 30
% Blacks: 20
% Latinos: 16

% who work from home who want to return to normal office hours after crisis: 40

% workers occ. drink working from home: 1/3
Of Hawaiian workers who say so: 2/3

% increase calls 2020 to Poison Control: 20
% increase, fentanyl price, San Diego: 40
% increase, marijuana price, NY: 55
% increase, meth price, Denver: 67

Increase LA driving speed since Feb: 21 mph
% report social distance violations to cops: 10
% US will “return to shaking hands” later: 3/10

Unexpected pregnancies due to Covid: 7m
% social isolation increases mortality rate:
In men: 62
In women: 75

Children missing measles vaccine now: 117m
Number undiscovered viruses infecting wildlife, estimated: 1,670,000
% which might infect people too: 40

state health dept jobs cut from 2008: 56,360

times avg person clicks smartphone/d: 2617
% increase volume calls since Jan.: 20
% increase call length since Jan.: 33

% UK adults spent more time catching up: 40
% UK adults spending less money: 67
% UK adults want “everything to go back as it was before the lockdown”: 10

2

As if you needed another reason to move to Hawaii!

3

Yeah, what’s up with Hawaii? That one surprised me.

How do they know those 7 million pregnancies are due to COVID?

4

These are estimates. I didn’t verify sources. Perhaps they are comparing the expected average number of pregnancies to the new number. Or, since we’re several months out, to web activity for diapers and diclectin. I just don’t know.

5

The source is given as the United Nations Population Fund (NYC). However, I sometimes edited the descriptions to make them more concise without wanting to change the meaning. In this case, the original descriptor is “Estimated number of unexpected pregnancies attributable to the Covid crisis if lockdowns last throughout October”.

6

It’s a question I have a selfish interest in! Pregnancies tend to result in babies which tend to result in need for pediatric care over the next several years … :slight_smile:

As a matter of hypotheticals there is the school of thought that says more lock down at home means more sex. Somehow now not using birth control? So more babies. And another that says worry about jobs and the economy will lead to holding off on kids out of anxiety. And maybe sick of each other after a bit! Less impulsive hooking up too I’d guess.

I don’t think anyone really knows. Anecdotally the OBGs I know say their prenatal care numbers are pretty standard, no change they see either way. For what that’s worth.

7

What does “% social isolation increases mortality rate” mean? Percent of people who believe that social anxiety increases the mortality rate (by some amount)? The only other alternative seems to be “percent increase in overall mortality attributable solely to social isolation”, and 75% of all women seems like a stretch for that.

That last statistic is really interestingly small. Any further elaboration on specific bits of ‘the way it was before’ that people don’t want to go back to?

8

I can give the original references, but can’t really answer your questions otherwise. I don’t know what was intended or measured.

The stats on social isolation, whatever was meant, were from “Matt Pantell, University of California, San Francisco”. The stats on UK back to normal from “YouGov (London)”.

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Well, what do you know, it looks like it is claiming that social isolation increases mortality in men by 62% and women by 75%. Your reference enabled me to narrow it down perfectly: it’s from this 2013 paper:

The abbreviated statistic misuses this in two subtle but significant ways - it turns a “predictor” into a “cause”, and I think isn’t really representing the actual finding of the paper (an increase of one point in a specific social isolation scale increases a specific indvidual’s risk of mortality by 1.62 or 1.75) very well. But at least I now have an idea of what they’re claiming.

A summary of the YouGov survey appears to show people appreciating a slower pace of life and environmental healing. Also, interestingly, that one of the things people report from the UK lockdown is “greater social connectivity”

10

That’s very interesting. I appreciate you chasing those studies down. I’ve always taken the index with a pinch of salt, but it seems both better (good sources) and worse (loose interpretation) than I thought.

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I’m also a bit curious how they could say the driving speed could increase in LA by 21 mph. I suppose they mean empty highways and lack of jams. And people racing because they usually can’t. But I’m surprised it’s that much.

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I expect the driving speed one is pretty accurate … because it sounds like the sort of thing you could get out of Google Location data. I have no experience of the driving in LA, but I’m told it’s usually dire.

Certainly if I think about particular drives I might take from my own house (like: heading outwards from the city between 4 and 7 pm), peak hour travel times can easily be twice or three times the length of weekend travel times - if there are few or no traffic jams at the moment, 21mph difference sounds high but plausible

13

During April and May, my daily 25 mile commute was about 5 minutes quicker because of less traffic and shorter stoplights. And this was in a smaller city.