I’m better at understanding climate than weather, if that makes sense? Weather can be extremely chaotic.
My best bet is not irreparable harm. I think there will be recovery. I can’t predict when but before I retire. That pretty much by tautology: while I approaching 66 this summer. have no current plans to retire I most certainly won’t until the market is on the other side of this. However long this is. Fortunately working well into my 70s was my intent anyway!
I am optimistic that global trade is stronger than Trump’s idiocy.
Again I don’t have the spine to short things. And short of that I really feel like hanging on for the ride is my best choice. International markets will be hit just as hard. I have a little in cash, 8 to 9% of my portfolio in gold. Modest bonds.
I’m also in a special circumstance in that I am a shareholder of our medical group, which has a venture capital firm as our majority stakeholder. It is completely illiquid. It becomes cash when they decide to sell to whoever or whatever they decide, but few of us expect that event to be too many years away. Realistically two max. Based on estimated value my stake there is worth about a third of the amount I have in my 401K and medical groups are not only countercyclical, we are resistant to tariff impacts.
And while we plan to hold off on taking SSN until 70 we are not so far away. And I am not expecting it to disappear.
It may be. But not with the US. It will build itself around a new world economic order that does not rely or stay vulnerable to the US. The entire world will isolate us and boycott us.
I expect the tent pole status of the United Stated will go away, but I strongly expect that few will boycott American markets when they are open to trade in.
I think everyone is underestimating what a privileged economic position the world was in. People all over invest in our markets at high rates, which drives up value of everything. They view us as safe so they park their spare money in our treasury at extremely low interest rates, which allows us to make all sorts of investments. Our currency is the world reserve currency, which gives us all sorts of advantages. All of those things are going away. This is going to hit us in a dozen different ways at once, and it’s going to have a severe impact on your life. Your purchasing power is going to down by a significant fraction.
All this talk of shorting the market and impending doom and all that, and I didn’t actually come up with a plan. Busy weekend. What do you guys like for shorting? I’m thinking maybe consumer discretionary index funds like XLY. Maybe some specific companies that would be ravaged by tariffs because almost all their manufacturing is in china. Clothing like Nike, Adidas, what else would that apply to?
Nike dropped about fifteen percent, I think, since the tariffs started. So it might be too late to short it? But I have never played the market like that so I could be wrong.
You may be right about that, it’s holding steady today.
I’m up 16% so far mostly on tesla. For the first time all of my puts, inverse ETFs, and short stock are all in the green. I sold my EU defense to give me more to short with, I’ll buy it back later. Really good opportunity for gold here, people are still using it to pay off their other losses - I bought another 20k.
I wonder if, in the aftermath of a crash like this (ongoing) one, certain categories of stock – like consumer staples – have historically recovered more quickly than the market as a whole.
I mean, I presume a recession is coming, and I wonder whether there is a time-tested way to invest in advance of a recession.
I may be a step too slow to my thought but still sharing it.
As I mentioned healthcare is countercyclical and not subject to tariffs. So I looked at Vanguard’s Healthcare Index. It is mostly traveling with the overall market. Down 10% for the month
I may move some over from whichever of my equity funds is dropped the least over the past couple of weeks to it.
I wasn’t implying that it was the best time to buy back in. Just, literally, if you felt the need to do something other than sit and wait, then expanding your EUAD would be wiser.
But, I would buy back in before checks start flying out of the White House, or if Trump is somehow able to organize a foreign exchange adjustment.
This is a wild ride, I was up 16% then down 9% then back up 8%, my portfolio is changing 2 or 3 percent per minute. wheeeeee.
This doesn’t feel organic, this feels like an insider pump and dump or something. What other time in history would the market jump 7% in 5-10 minutes on no news?
Man I barely slept last night and I just want to get a nap in but I’m concerned I’ll wake up having lost $70k. Which, you know, fair enough. I guess I could set some sort of stop limits but I think I’m going to ride this bucking bronco
I’ve lost marginally more on Costco since January 1st …..What is sleep? If I pull out I have chance of getting even in the near future. I’ve been on the Costco ride for 27 years …If it gets back 50% of what I’ve given back I’m DONE…CD Here I come!
I will be talking to my broker tomorrow about what to do with my cash reserves, which were originally intended to help buy a house. Anyone have any GOOD articles on how the real estate market will be impacted?