Oof. How are you holding up? As of this minute it is up over 14%. You gonna be okay?
How I hate that man. He basically just played the market like a fucking violin, telling his followers to buy earlier, than springs this Wednesday Surprise on everyone. Of course the escalation of the ones on China should most definitely remain a big issue for any remotely rational investor…
This is nuts.
I’m calling it a sucker’s rally. Trump is not done with the chaos.
If the recovery is sufficient I’m taking some more out and putting it on the sidelines. I’m looking at my lots and trying to decide what my action levels are.
I took some out on Feb 25, so I do have a pretty big CG to cover. I might take some of my S&P 500 (VOO) lots that are negative and sell them to cover the gains
Oh man i was taking a nap and woke up to my portfolio being down $50,000 so that’s fun. I’m still holding, it’s not a loss until it’s realized. The chaos will continue.
Wish I would have sold my Tesla put this morning as I was thinking. Dropped 40% since then. Doubtful this rally will last, but don’t know if the price will plunge nearly as much again.
Exactly as I predicted, Trump has now postponed the tariffs after tanking the market so his billionaire friends (and himself) can buy back into the market at its low point and watch the dollars flow in. I’m absolutely positive that he told them when he was going to do this so they could cash in.
Good Lord, index swings approaching 10% in one day!
There have been massive fluctuations in the past, but not at this rate.
I assume it is due to automated trading by computer algorithms?
I’m starting to wonder if the whole system is so unstable that it might just collapse as positive feedbacks overwhelm negative ones?
We’re really in uncharted territory then…
Tesla will come back down. I’m sure I’m hosed on everything else. Oh well. It’s not the first or even hundredth time Trump has hurt me.
Apparently there were an unusual amount of SPY calls bought just before the announcement. Quick and easy tripling of your money. Nice work, if you can get it.
The market doesn’t seem to realize that the continuing trade war with China it’s still catastrophic. Most of this rally is desperate hope that it’s all over when it’s not.
Eventually, I’m sure. It’s a matter of how long you can hold out.
I remember the CEO of a company I used to work for who stubbornly held on to Netscape shorts (yes this was a long time ago) until he finally had to cover them at a considerable loss.
In the long term he was right of course, Netscape never made it as a major company.
Google killed them.
Tesla’s earnings releases April 22 and it’s going to be ugly. Of course every news they’ve had in the last 3 months has been ugly and it doesn’t seem to matter, so maybe I’m wrong about how much earnings will affect them. But I expect them to fall within a month. If not, then I guess I give up.
Really, Tesla going up 23% today (more than the market as a whole) makes absolutely no sense. Tesla’s decline over the last week was not really Tariff-related. They were less affected by tariffs than the average manufacturer. They had plenty of other reasons to go down. So it doesn’t make sense that they’d see a disproportionate gain when (some) tariffs were paused. I guess being a meme stock, it receives irrational exuberance in a meme market.
At 10 minutes to 4 yesterday I decided that we would see another pop of a couple of % this morning, so I decided what I’d dump and planned to do it around the market open.
Pigs get fat, I get slaughtered.
You’re learning about the “stopped clock” school of investment trading. Everybody has short runs of time where their every intuition of what’s going to happen turns out correctly and suddenly they’re making an insane ROI. So they up their base stake and roll their winnings into the next trade. And the next. And …
About then, their metaphoric two minutes per day of being right come to an end.
Like that corny bit from ST:TOS Spock’s Brain where McCoy is using alien tech to reinstall Spock’s brain into his body after the aliens stole it. One minute it’s child’s play. The next minute there’s bewildering millions of possibilities and only one right one.
Fortunately (for me) the market corrected it’s overexuberance from yesterday a bit as I expected it would. If I had started out today down another 10 or 20% it would’ve been brutal. But I’ve recovered about a third of yesterday’s losses.
After losing a little over 50k yesterday I’m up 30k today. You know, just normal stock market things. Which I guess sounds normal if you’ve got a portfolio in the millions, but I most certainly do not. The loss represented almost a third of my money.
(After I lost all that money with the Tesla surge, I bought more puts. Why not? We were clearly at the peak. My entire life is now just wanting Tesla to die)
Wait, you’re playing with things like puts and what sounds like day trading with a portfolio of only $150,000, including losing a third of that in one day? You are a braver person than me.
Yes sir, that’s the kind of dumb I am. It was a little bit bigger at just under 200 rather than 150, I’ve been rounding off the percentages a bit. There is a logic to what I’m doing – if the US economy destroys itself, my ability to survive financially is at significant risk, so I wanted to grow my portfolio value significantly in that case to make up for the loss in income. It’s high risk, but I’m aware of it and accept it as part of a deliberate strategy.
That said, these are crazy times and I feel like this may be a once in a lifetime opportunity. I’m not gambling away with a huge percentage of my portfolio in normal times. And for what it’s worth, staying the course has regained me 45k of my loss from yesterday. I’m up overall since I went from long to short positions at the end of february
And I am interested in reading along. But “investing” I don’t think that is.
My WAG is that the house is stacked against him. Which doesn’t mean he can’t win. Still, and no offense @SenorBeef, and nothing wrong with gambling and big bets, but can you afford to lose the bets you’ve made?
Judging from my personal experience I concur. I have often placed puts, usually small amounts in comparison, that looked very sensible to me at the time. Often my judgement was clouded by animosity against the company I placed the bet against, I am aware of that. Still it is remarcable how little I have gained from those puts over the years, particularly compared with the risk I incurred. The market skews strongly for growth.
See also this article from the NYT (gift link).