Exactly. When I’m feeling pessimistic and paranoid, I figure there will be restrictions on capital flight before there are restrictions on physically leaving the country (if anything, one assumes MAGA would be happy to facilitate the “self-deportation”). Unfortunately, FATCA makes it onerous for a non-US institution to have an American account holder.
I’ve got most of my Fidelity IRA in Euro Defense/Aero/Heavy Industry.
What are my realistic risks of it being frozen assets?
Also, my wooden head is filled with little in the way of investment knowledge.
In the past,in my old 401K, I shifted to bonds at the first smell of market issues, stocks when I thought things had bottomed out. I did ok.
Any ideas about which way to jump?
The Fidelity people say they dont offer Gold in the IRA.
I am retired on a small pension (ex-bureaucrat ) and Social Security, plus savings & investments.
I think that sort of thing is a bad idea. It’s better just to leave your investment allocations alone.
Fair, but what about the asset freezing in time of war thing?
Very low. You could certainly put it on your list of risks, but it seems to me that things like massive health issues or currency devaluation or probably higher on that list. You could read up on “deep risk” and various approaches for mitigating it. They are often pretty extreme.
No. I doubt anybody else does either.
Probably not directly (without high costs), but there are definitely mutual funds that track the price of gold. They likely have high costs as well.
Honestly, any attempt to “own” gold that is really just an account that says you own the gold could also be seized. The only way to actually have “100% can’t be taken” gold is to physically possess the gold. Which of course is rather onerous, and could also be taken by force if it came to that.
And any gold that you physically own at home is at risk of being stolen.
Are you thinking that the government is going to freeze assets in stock funds but not assets in bond funds? Because in the really unlikely event that assets are frozen, they’re going to freeze everything, including bank accounts.
Oh lots of people have ideas! Many held with great confidence.
Remember Executive Order 6102, from 1933? There is no gold that can’t be taken. There is nothing that can’t be taken. And the current regime in the USA is not bound by morals, intelligence or rational calculations, I fear.
I know this is not helpful, but the situation is unpresidentially unprecedented. Spite and envy of an individual did not use to be the relevant factors when taking economic decisions.
Something I’ve always wondered about that gold EO is, how did they enforce it? If I had 1kg of gold hidden out back, how would they know? And couldn’t I convert that gold to jewelry and sell it off, under the radar?
IAU is the iShares ETF for gold, and it is most certainly offered on Fidelity, as I just looked on my Fidelity account. It has a 0.25% expense ratio.
When you ask Fidelity “can I buy gold in my IRA?” they may think you’re asking if you can buy actual physical gold (which is allowed in some IRA formats that Fidelity doesn’t offer). Be SPECIFIC when you talk to them.
Also, just type “gold” into the search bar on Fidelity’s platform - at least 4 different investment options appear for me.
I don’t know, but I guess it was enough to make it illegal to buy or sell gold though the ordinary channels, I suppose mostly banks. Without a market there is no use for gold, and turning a couple of pounds of gold into jewellery is a lot of work or bad jewellery. If you can only sell or buy gold to a private person or sell it to the government I guess you will have to sell it to the governement.
Or keep it hidden for a couple of decades, until trade is legal again. And then the IRS will ask you where the gold came from, declare it a gain, and tax it heavily, if they feel vindictive. Which is what this administration, and I use the term loosely, is all about: petty vindictiveness.
Thank you.
Of course right now gold is at or near its all time high. Maybe it will continue to rise? Maybe it’s at the peak and will decline from here.
Right now there’s nowhere safe but cash. I’m no suggesting anyone move to cash, I’m not. But Gold is so high that I personally wouldn’t get in now. This Greenland mess could go any which way- from a fizzle to a real and damaging trade war.
The dollar is down almost 1% today, which doesn’t do cash any favors.
Really no choice but ride it out.
Inflation and devaluation eat cash. Nothing is safe, it cannot be. Particularly not in an irrational world. Be ready to witnesss a lot of stupidity in Davos the next three days. And somewhere else afterwards.
Of course I know that, but if everything is at record highs, and the geopolitical situation is bonkers, and we are on the brink of a trade war with our closest allies, I’d say the erosion of inflation is safe when compared to the alternatives.
Again, I’m not advocating a move to cash, but if we don’t see a huge correction in the next year I’ll be amazed.
And yes, I said that one year ago.
Hence my inaction.
My concerns for inflation have led to moving more quickly than I otherwise might have on some capital outlays. For instance, my wife had been talking about wanting a hot tub for ages. It was on our “do in the next 5 years” list. We got one this past spring, instead. Clearly, a hot tub is not a good investment (though we’ve been quite happy with it). But I don’t see prices dropping any time soon and there’s a rather non-zero chance of global supply lines going wonky again. Which leads to my reasoning that it may be smarter to purchase anything I’ve been planning on now rather than later, as long as it doesn’t impact liquidity. While that may just be my personal idiosyncrasy talking, I think there’s a very strong argument for moving up the purchase of something like a quality used car that should hold value barring anything this side of the economy going total FUBAR.
Questions going into the market today -
Will the market have confidence in TACO and recover today?
Do you have confidence in TACO?
I feel really dumb asking this, but what is TACO?