Iowa Democratic bragging rights thread

Since we have one for the Republicans, let’s also have one for the suddently tight Democratic contest in Iowa.

Here’s my prediction:

Sanders 52
Clinton 45
O’Malley 3

Clinton: 58
Sanders: 39
O’Malley: 3

Clinton 56
Sanders 43
Josef Stalin 0.009
Heinrich Himmler 0.007
Charles Manson 0.006
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi 0.002
Martin O’Malley 0.000000000000000000001

Clinton 51
Sanders 27
O’Malley 17
Florrick 4

Sanders 49.9
Clinton 49.7
O’Malley 0.4

The Clinton campaign will push the idea that if it had been one person one vote, if they didn’t redistribute all the nonviable O’Malley supporters, etc., she would have won. And even if O’Malley’s 5ish% in the polls shows up, he gets eliminated in any precinct where he doesn’t get at least 15% so 0.4 might be way too high. Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, and Bill Richardson all got something in 2008, though, so maybe he’ll really shine and get as much as 1%.

O’Malley will definitely underperform in the polls, it’s just a question of by how much and who benefits.

Richardson was at 6 but finished with 2 in in the final Des Moines Register poll.

Clinton 55
Sanders 44
OMalley 1

Clinton 52
Sanders 47
OMalley 1

Clinton 50
Sanders 50
O’Malley 0

It will probably be more along the lines of Clinton getting enough of the “odd delegates” (i.e. if a precinct has 3 delegates available, Clinton gets 2 of them) to county conventions that, in the end, Clinton is forecast to win 27 national convention delegates to Sanders’s 17, and she will claim the victory - which, IIRC, is the opposite of what happened in Nevada in 2008 (where I think she claimed that having the most votes made her the winner, even though Obama was projected to get more delegates).

Getting more votes probably gets you more momentum for the next contest, so it’s probably smart to promote the fact that you got more votes. It’s true that in a delegate race it’s the delegates that count, but most primary elections don’t come down to the last primaries. Clinton-Obama was a pretty rare case.

Besides, any result that looks to favor Sanders, whether more delegates or more votes, will make the media start reporting as if it’s 2008 all over again, which is not what the Clinton campaign wants.

O’Malley 79
Clinton 19
Sanders 2

(Hey, probably not, but I’ll win so big if I’m right!)

That’s true in a primary, but the system for the Iowa Democrats is so wacky that I think the only numbers we actually get are the delegates. Anything resembling “votes” has to be reverse engineered based on turnout in each precinct. That’s why I think there’s room for a loser to try to claim more “votes,” since they get to do their own math.

It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility for someone to come back and win in Iowa when they aren’t expected to, but not starting from 5% two weeks before. If O’Malley was in third with even 15%, it would be possible.

Yeah but suppose if in the next two weeks it is revealed that Chelsea is really Bernie and Hillary’s love child?

I have no idea how an Iowan thinks. I’ll guess: 51/49 with Clinton just edging out Sanders

Clinton: 51%
Sanders: 48%
O’Malley: 1%

All I’ll do is look at 538, and make a prediction between their poll numbers and poll+ numbers. I’ll just give Clinton a nice even 50, and go from there, so

Clinton 50
Sanders 43
O’Malley 7

Average Doper results for the Democratic Caucus (Omitting the O’Malley = 79% submission):

High/Low
Clinton 58/45
Sanders 52/27
O’Malley 17/0

Mean
Clinton 51.7
Sanders 44.5
O’Malley 3.2

Median
Clinton 51
Sanders 46
O’Malley 1

Wow, good call.