Iran declines invitation to call Trump about Trump's concerns: Trump the statesman, part 2?

[asahi]

@Snowboarder_Bo

Macron trying to work a miracle:

I may turn out to be wrong, but I suspect Macron is wasting his time. Trump’s administration doesn’t do multilateral treaties; they go mano-a-mano. It’s that approach that got us into this mess to begin with. I don’t see them using a framework to get us out. I don’t think their team even understands what a framework is, or how it works.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Politico:

Donald Trump has long trashed the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement as “the worst deal ever,” a “disaster” that didn’t cover nearly enough of the Islamist-led country’s nefarious behavior.

In recent weeks, however, the president has indicated that the Barack Obama-era deal might not be so bad after all.
…
At times, analysts and former officials say, it sounds like Trump wants to strike a deal that essentially mirrors the agreement that his White House predecessor inked — even if he’d never be willing to admit it. Iranian officials seem willing to egg him on, saying they’ll talk so long as Trump lifts the sanctions he’s imposed on them and returns to the 2015 Iran deal. And as European ministers warn that the existing deal is nearly extinct, Trump may feel like he is backed into a corner and running out of options.
…
Several European officials express astonishment at the audacity of the Trump administration demanding that Iran adhere to the deal when the U.S. the one who breached the agreement in the first place. Some said they were not surprised that Iran may have taken actions in the Persian Gulf as payback for the U.S. abandonment of the deal.

Europeans “know that the original sin causing the current escalation in the Gulf is the U.S. violation of the Iran nuclear deal,” said Nathalie Tocci, an adviser to European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.
…
Blanc, the Obama administration official, said what Trump seems to want is a grand show, the type that he’s gotten in his one-on-one meetings with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

[asahi]

@Walken_After_Midnight

Politico:

Whatever the president wants to do, it’s very unlikely that Iran will give up whatever enriched uranium it has developed and whatever advances it makes between now and the next deal. When one side (Side A, let’s call it) breaks an agreement, Side B has no incentive to return back to the same place. Iran may be willing to go back to a framework that’s similar to the one it had before, but it won’t be the same. Iran will want more security guarantees.

[bobot]

Trump is bringing to this issue the same deal making skill that bankrupted casinos.

[steronz]

@bobot

Trump is bringing to this issue the same deal making skill that bankrupted casinos.

As terrible as Trump’s approach to foreign policy is, pulling out of the Iran deal was a mainstream Republican position. It’s likely that only Trump was actually dumb enough to carry through on that particular campaign promise, but I think this falls into general Republican bad ideas and not solely Trump’s.

[asahi]

@steronz

As terrible as Trump’s approach to foreign policy is, pulling out of the Iran deal was a mainstream Republican position. It’s likely that only Trump was actually dumb enough to carry through on that particular campaign promise, but I think this falls into general Republican bad ideas and not solely Trump’s.

Agreed, but what’s uniquely Trump is that he is rendered our diplomatic apparatus impotent, virtually non-existent. He has a cabinet full of impulsive militaristic conspiracy theorists. We’re just fortunate that Donald Trump likes to play tough guy on television and likes surrounding himself with warriors and generals but doesn’t seem particularly interested in starting another war – at least he’s got that going for him.

[KarlGauss]

@asahi

. . . We’re just fortunate that Donald Trump . . . doesn’t seem particularly interested in starting another war – at least he’s got that going for him.

Until Fox and accomplices tell him ‘If you don’t ever carry out your threat, people will think you’re chickenshit and Iran/NK/Venezuela/et al will call your bluff. NOW is the time to launch!’

[asahi]

@KarlGauss

Until Fox and accomplices tell him ‘If you don’t ever carry out your threat, people will think you’re chickenshit and Iran/NK/Venezuela/et al will call your bluff. NOW is the time to launch!’

Yep, Fox and Friends could amplify Bolton, or vice versa.

[Snowboarder_Bo]

The US evens the downed drone count at 1 apiece.

[Snowboarder_Bo]

@Snowboarder_Bo

The US evens the downed drone count at 1 apiece.

When I posted this, I thought I should have noted that the AP story only said “Trump said”. Sure enough, Iran is denying Trump’s account, and they say they have video to back up their version of events.

Iran said Friday it can provide images that disprove President Donald Trump’s statement that a U.S. warship destroyed an Iranian drone near the Persian Gulf after it threatened the ship. The incident marked a new escalation of tensions between the countries, less than a month after Iran downed an American drone in the same waterway and Trump came close to retaliating with a military strike.

The Iranian military said all its drones had returned safely to their bases and denied there was any confrontation with a U.S. vessel the previous day.

“We have not lost any drone in the Strait of Hormuz nor anywhere else,” tweeted Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

[bobot]

I guess we’ll just have to rely on Trump’s well earned notorious credibility for this one, huh?

[Horatius]

And in other Iran-US news, we have this:

Iran has offered a deal with the US in which it would formally and permanently accept enhanced inspections of its nuclear programme, in return for the permanent lifting of US sanctions.

The offer was made by the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on a visit to New York. But it is unlikely to be warmly received by the Trump administration, which is currently demanding Iran make a range of sweeping concessions, including cessation of uranium enrichment and support for proxies and allies in the region.

Zarif insisted, however, that his offer was “a substantial move”.

“It’s not about photo ops. We are interested in substance,” he told reporters at the Iranian mission to the UN in New York on Thursday. “There are other substantial moves that can be made.”

He said: “If they [the Trump administration] are putting their money where their mouth is, they are going to do it. They don’t need a photo op. They don’t need a two-page document with a big signature.”

I have to give this guy credit: I honestly can’t tell if he’s making a sincere offer to the US, or just trolling Trump with his lines about “photo ops” and “big signatures”.

If this offer were real, I’d likely support it, but when he’s tweaking Trump like that, I pretty much assume Trump will turn it down flat.

[wguy123]

@bobot

I guess we’ll just have to rely on Trump’s well earned notorious credibility for this one, huh?

It’s extremely sad when Iran is beginning to have more credibility than the POTUS.

[Gyrate]

@Horatius

I have to give this guy credit: I honestly can’t tell if he’s making a sincere offer to the US, or just trolling Trump with his lines about “photo ops” and “big signatures”.

Both. He knows Trump won’t take it but in the unlikely event he does, they get “permanent” sanctions removal (which would be carte blanche for all sorts of things).

[asahi]

As Bo and I have talked about before, it doesn’t matter if the President suddenly decides that he now thinks that Obama’s agreement wasn’t so bad after all. Iran’s not going back to 2015; they’re not going to let the US break an agreement without a consequence.

See, contrary to the testosterone-driven brain trust on the right wing believe, this is also why diplomacy isn’t for sissies; diplomacy can actually strengthen your political position. We have virtually no - zero - diplomatic game plan. The entire “plan” was to use sanctions to crush Iran’s regime. We clearly did this without thinking about what would happen if they started putting the pressure back on us. Iran has definitely thought a lot more about how this ends, and they’ve considered hostile outcomes, non-hostile outcomes, and probably gamed out a few scenarios in between. We’re making shit up as we go along.

So - much - winning.

Trump. funniest moment. You'll be tired of winning. We'll win win win. (blue T-shirt man reaction)

[Snowboarder_Bo]

I dunno that they’re talking to each other, but Iran and NKorea are making similar moves: US officials: Iran test-launched a medium-range missile

Iran test-launched a medium-range ballistic missile inside its borders, U.S. officials said Friday, defying Trump administration demands that it curtail the weapon program and demonstrating its intent to further push back against U.S. sanctions.

Ridiculously-named Hogan Gidley confirmed that the US strategy is to slowly strangle Iran:

“You’ve seen their economy teetering on the verge of collapse for a while now. And when they’re backed into a corner, they’re acting out,” said spokesman Hogan Gidley, who also said President Donald Trump wants to begin conversations with Iran’s leaders.

Someone who knows what they’re talking about weighed in, too:

Behnam Ben Taleblu, an expert on Iranian defense at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the Shahab-3 is a liquid-fueled, medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon.

“The Shahab-3 is the backbone of Iran’s class of medium-range ballistic missiles,” he said, adding that Iranian news outlets have previously called it one of the country’s “Israel-hitting” missiles.

It is derived from a North Korean missile called the Nodong-A and can fly 1,150 to 2,000 kilometers, or up to 1,242 miles, depending on the variant.

“Iran’s continued flight-testing has both political and military applications, functioning as a show of resolve against foreign adversaries and to improve the overall reliability of its missile force, which is the largest in the Middle East,” he said. “As Iran continues to escalate in response to the maximum-pressure campaign, Washington should expect more missile launches.”

[Snowboarder_Bo]

Trump decides that making this a personal thing is the way to go, apparently; too bad for Trump that he and those around him are fucking idiots, I guess:

In a notice sent to Congress, the State Department said it had extended for 90 days waivers that permit European, Russian and Chinese companies to conduct civilian-nuclear cooperation at several Iranian sites. The waivers, which were due to expire on Thursday, had been the subject of heated internal debate with Iran hawks opposed to their extension but others arguing that more time was needed to allow companies to wind down their operations.

The State Department announced the decision in a statement that sought to portray the step as an extension of restrictions on civilian-nuclear cooperation rather than a renewal of sanctions waivers that allow the work in the first place.

“The action today will help preserve oversight of Iran’s civil nuclear program, reduce proliferation risks, constrain Iran’s ability to shorten its ‘breakout time’ to a nuclear weapon, and prevent the regime from reconstituting sites,” spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said.

Well, that sounds relatively normal, if inexplicable. What comes next, tho, remains firmly in the “dumb as hell” category; an explanation of just how stupid this is comes at the end of this quote:

At the same time, the administration announced that it had imposed financial sanctions on Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as part of its escalating campaign of pressure against the Islamic Republic. The highly unusual action of penalizing the top diplomat of another nation comes a month after Trump signed an executive order placing sanctions on Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Those sanctions are largely symbolic as U.S. officials said Zarif’s travels to New York for official U.N. business will not be inhibited, in accordance with America’s international obligations, and the fact that he has little financial interest in American jurisdictions.

In response to that announcement, Zarif tweeted, “It has no effect on me or my family, as I have no property or interests outside of Iran.”

Smooooooooth move, Team Trump. Now you’ve got them right where you want them! :rolleyes:

[Snowboarder_Bo]

Well, Trump failed again, this time hilariously.

The British overseas territory of Gibraltar released a seized Iranian supertanker Thursday over last-minute objections from the U.S., potentially easing tensions between London and Tehran, which still holds a British-flagged vessel.

Grace 1 is free to go; these aren’t the droids they’re looking for.

Gibraltar Chief Minister Fabian Picardo said the U.S. could still begin a new legal procedure for seizing the Grace 1, but that provisions under the European Union’s sanctions regulations were ending Thursday after the Iranian government assured him in writing that the ship will not send its 2.1 million barrels of crude to a sanctioned entity in Syria.

Reacting to the developments, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accused the U.S. of trying to “steal our property on the high seas.”

“Having failed to accomplish its objectives through its #EconomicTerrorism — including depriving cancer patients of medicine — the US attempted to abuse the legal system to steal our property on the high seas,” Zarif tweeted, calling the Trump administration’s moves a “piracy attempt.”

That’s right: Trump’s diplomacy once again ceded the high ground to an adversary. I’m not sure, but I think he might be close to 100% with this move; is anyone keeping track?

It was not clear whether the Grace 1 would sail away immediately; nor was it known what the Trump’s administration strategy was. The U.S. Justice Department did not respond to requests for comment.

:rolleyes:

[XT]

You didn’t quote this part:

Gibraltar said it had “solid documentary evidence” that the vessel was bound for Syria when it was detained on July 4, but that the political fallout had prompted talks with Iranian officials in London.

The EU has endorsed U.N. sanctions against Syria and has imposed a broad range of its own restrictions against Assad’s government and its supporters. The restrictions include an oil embargo, limits on certain type of investments and a freeze of Syria’s central bank’s assets in the EU, among others.

Resolving the tanker dispute would help Britain’s Johnson focus on domestic issues as he works to complete Britain’s exit from the EU and prepare for anticipated national elections in the next few months.

You are really presenting a one sided analysis of this mess, mainly quoting an Iranian official and his take on this situation. Seriously, I’m not sure how this is such a huge loss for Trump or the US, or such a huge win for the Iranians. It seems to have been done for political expediency in the UK, but in the broader cluster fuck it’s fairly meaningless except it MIGHT make the Iranians less likely to seize UK shipping. Which they have been doing. From the perspective of the US, however, it seems Trump et al ARE getting other nations to comply with his assinine push, and Iran is being squeezed.

Tell me, what part of this do you see as a win for Iran (as a whole, not that this isn’t a big win for the fundamentalist theocrat faction in charge)? What do you see as a loss for Trump? I’m really curious how this is playing out in your head, as to me it looks like Trump is winning this one. Just delaying that tanker was a ‘win’ for Trump et al. Hell, atm, Trump seems to be getting his cake and eating it too, as he’s done all this and the price of oil STILL hasn’t really risen, nor has there been any adverse affect, in the US at least which is all Trump cares about, at that pump. Politically, it doesn’t seem to have done anything to him either, as Iran is, frankly, a sideshow compared to what’s happening with China.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@XT

Tell me, what part of this do you see as a win for Iran (as a whole, not that this isn’t a big win for the fundamentalist theocrat faction in charge)? .

Not so much a win for Iran as it is simply a demonstration that the United States is becoming increasingly irrelevant on the world stage. Britain and Iran negotiated, Britain made a concession for internal political reasons, and the wishes of the United States were simply ignored.

While other countries enter into trade agreements, diplomatic discussions and other things that countries with actual functioning governments do, the US will just continue to ramble around from one crazy presidential tweet to the next, and be ignored.

The US is now the crazy relative at Thanksgiving dinner, who comes to the table with his underpants on his head, and tells everyone to look out for “those people”. Everyone just looks the other way and continues to pass the potatoes.