Will Israel pre-empt that pre-emption? Should Israel do so? If Israel is hit first what would happen? If Israel hits first, after this statement, what would happen?
I think you mean “some senior officials in Iran are recommending” a pre-emptive strike against Israel. From your link:
Will they convince the Iranian government to actually attempt such a thing? My completely non-expert opinion: Hell no.
According to the article, Iran is actually threatening a preemptive strike in response to Israel’s own threat of a preemptive strike. So if this causes Israel to strike, they would be preempting a preemption of their preemption, which should illustrate one of the dangers of the policy of preemptive war.
Pretty much sums up my own thoughts on this. I don’t think Iran has the capability to launch a real pre-emptive strike on Israel. This isn’t to say that Iran couldn’t hit Israel with something…they could. But a pre-emptive strike implies a real strategic strike intended to knock out some vital portion of the enemies war fighting capability (in this case Israel’s own air strike capability presumably)…and there is no way in hell, short of using a nuke Iran doesn’t have, that they could do more than seriously piss off Israel. This doesn’t include the international ramifications either…which probably wouldn’t be good.
So…it’s all just Iran (or some Iranian official) shooting off it’s mouth or rattling it’s saber, probably for local consumption. If anyone is going to do a pre-emptive strike in this little drama it will be Israel against Iran…and I think the probability of that is only low to medium.
-XT
Iran does not have a realistic ability to conduct an effective first strike.
I’m not saying that I’d love to see it happen, because of the pain and suffering that would ensue.
But, by god, if Iran tried, that’d be… real interesting.
As noted Iran has nowhere near the capability to launch a strike on Israel that would do more than piss the Israelis off. Iran needs nukes to do anything to Israel which is of course why Israel wants to preemptively strike Iran so Iran cannot preemptively strike them first.
(thinking about that makes me dizzy)
ETA: Oddly, I cannot see a use for Iran’s sabre rattling. It just encourages the rest of the world to think Israel may be right to attack first. Iran should be adopting a, “Who? Us? We’re harmless!” stance till they get their nukes.
Even if there isn’t a shooting war that gets started, the news looks fairly good for the US.
As for any actual attacks, right now it doesn’t look likely. Chances are any powers would wait until the end of the American election, at least.
‘Interesting’ in the Chinese sense of the word. 
I don’t want to see it happen either, but gods…it would be a riot to watch a simulation where no one would be hurt and using realistic parameters that factor in Iran’s realistic capabilities (training level, equipment and maintenance, Israel’s air defense system and ability to detect and scramble, training levels and equipments and maintenance, etc etc).
I’d just like to see how Iran would plan to control and coordinate such a strike so far from home…and how many planes (or wings) would wander off and strike gods know what (assuming they’d get there at all…which I think is a pretty big assumption).
-XT
It will be done after the election but before the next President takes office. It is in Israel’s best interest to attack before the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft radar system is installed.
Quite possibly, but Iran’s leadership may be more open to negotiation with one candidate than with another. War is not, yet, guaranteed.
If they don’t have them already the US should loan some F117 Nighthawks to Israel. Problem solved. I doubt we’d give anyone our stealth bombers though.
Add in a wing of F22 Raptors to boot. Since the US is loathe to hand those to other countries perhaps a contingent of US pilots doing a foreign relations tour with their F22s. Of course the US pilots could not participate in an attack they could provide defense if Israel is attacked. A wing of F22s and an AWACS can own the whole Iranian Air Force solo (biggest problem is the F22 running out of ammo but when that happens they are used to help vector other planes in and keep the situation unpredictable for the enemy).
Can’t they just toss a coin to see who goes first?!
I see you’ve played preempty-spoonie before…
Like xtisme said; it’s probably being done for local political consumption. One assumes by someone too short sighted to know or care about the possible impact on international relations.
That being said, being harmless didn’t help Saddam.
Did anyone else notice the statement was made over two weeks ago? Is this really anything new, and of serious concern?
I for one hope this doesn’t push the U.S. election in McCain’s favor. We just can’t afford to maintain our current international military footprint any further, and that includes our role as Israel’s big brother.
Don’t fret. I don’t see how it could possibly effect the election, even marginally. I think most voters are focused almost exclusively on the economy atm…even Iraq isn’t the big issue everyone thought it was going to be in this election. Unless there is an actual shooting war between Israel and Iran in the next week or so (:dubious:!!) it won’t even get on the radar of most voters…nor should it. It’s just another cycle of snarling between Iran and Israel…and like much of what Iran says it’s really designed to play to their own citizens and base with perhaps a nod to a few other regional listeners.
-XT
The purpose of a pre-emptive strike is to disable the ability of your opponent to attack. Iran almost certainly lack this ability, so it would make absolutely no sense for them to attack Israel. They would be preempting anything, and would be ensuring US backing for an inevitable Israeli attack on them. This is all just tough talk for domestic consumption.
Additionally even if they had somehow obtained enough weaponary, in secret, to acheive a successful pre-emptive strike on Israel (disabling their airforce and long-range-missiles, including submarine launched ones), all that would mean was the US would step in and respond to what would be unprevoked attack on their ally.
what part of annihilating Israel would be negotiated by the US?