This past Sunday and Monday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made what amounted to a triumphal visit to Baghdad, embracing and kissing President Talabani and promising “brotherly” relations with Iraq in the future. (This, while the UN Security Council decreed a third round of sanctions on Iran for refusing to abandon its uranium-enrichment research.)
I think we need to face facts: Iran wants to be the hegemonic or at least predominant “core state” of all the Shi’ite-majority Gulf States, and they’re almost certainly going to get that. They’re the richest, biggest, strongest, most industrialized state between Saudi Arabia and India. They’re there and they always will be; the U.S. is there only so long as we can afford to maintain a military presence. Hussein (a Sunni) provided a countervailing force, but now he’s gone. Iraq, if it ever does get a really stable and effective government again, thenceforth almost certainly will be dominated by its Shi’ite majority, who view Iran as their best friend. This war has simply handed Iraq over into Iran’s expanded sphere of influence. And there’s nothing the U.S. can do about it. All we can do is adapt to the changed circumstances.
Ahmadinejad traveled around the city . He was greeted warmly. He traveled the airport road with out tanks. He was able to go where Bush could not .
The war is lost in so many ways.
You are making a lot of bald assertions in your OP BG, but I don’t see how you are backing them up. Maybe that would be a good place to start?
Sure…they have wanted this for quite some time so it’s not exactly news. AQ wants something similar (though from a different perspective obviously).
And you base this assertion on…? The fact that Iran WANTS to be the regions hegemonic power is far from assuring them of gaining this role. I seriously doubt the OTHER powers in the region are going to meekly go along with Iran’s aims in this…and frankly I’m doubtful that Iraq will even fall into line about this.
:dubious: They have the biggest population. But richest? If so it’s news to me. How are you rating strength here exactly? Largest number of canon fodder in their military? There are several powers in the region who have more technologically capable military (in theory and on paper at least)…and several of them are direct allies with the US (unless you are positing that the US is going to drop off the face of the world of course).
I don’t know about most industrialized either…again, what do you base this on?
I will grudgingly concede this one without asking for a cite…
Say rather the US will be there only so long as it is strategically vital that we do so. As well as all the other nations of the world who rely on that oil stuff…
You make it sound like this was a good thing.
Now we come to the core questions. What is your evidence for this? Are the majority of Shi’ites in favor of being dominated by Iran? Would they and the Iranians be more successful in preventing the OTHER factions in the country from doing pretty much what they have done to us? Do you really expect that Iran would be able to deal with this stuff (assuming The World™ allowed it to happen and allowed Iran/Shi’ite majority to have a free hand :dubious: )? Or are you assuming there would be a blood bath and the Sunni and Kurds would be essentially wiped out? Because I think both factions (and a bunch more including AQ in Iraq) would fight such a move as fiercely (more actually) as they fought us.
Perhaps. It’s hard to say at this point. I’m sure IRAN feels that way and will do what they can to make that come to pass.
:dubious: Nothing at all? I’m skeptical that Iran is destined to dominate Iraq and the region and that the US has no say in it.
Are there any Shi’a majority Gulf states beside Iran and Iraq? Syria is ruled by a Shi’a faction, but the population is mostly Sunni. Lebanon has a large Shi’a minority, but is not Shi’a majority (as far as we can tell).
And why are they most certainly going to “get that”? Arabs are not Persians.
AQ is hardly worthy of comparison. Despite our attempts to build it up into something like COBRA or SPECTRE, it’s just a loose network of religious/political thugs and fanatics. Iran, whatever you feel about it, is an actual nation. Far larger and more powerful than Al Qaeda will ever be.
I’m saying they have similar goals wrt a hegemonic Islamic state or superstate (though they look at it from different ends of fundamental Islam). I’m aware of the fact that Iran is a nation state while AQ is a loose coalition of terrorists groups working under a quasi-organization. That wasn’t really my point.
Iraq and Iran had a horrible 8 year war . They were enemies. Only we could bring them together in a uniform hatred of us. We have done so well in the middle east.
Iraq under Saddam (and therefore under SUNNI control) fought an 8 year war with Iran (under a Shi’ia fundamentalist theocracy). What has ‘brought them together’ isn’t a mutual hatred of the US but a shift in who holds the whip hand in Iraq these days. Seriously, pick up a history book sometime before spouting off.
Even so I doubt that the dire predictions of the OP are going to transpire. Perhaps Tamerlane will wonder into the thread and educate us all on this stuff but I’m not seeing it.
Iran will be the only thing keeping Iraq from catostrophic, explosive, violent self-destruction when we leave. They might not like us very much, but Iran will do more to stabilize Iraq and the Middle East than we ever could.
In my opinion, it’s high time we started making some gestures of the non-threatening, non-sanctioning, non-violent type to Iran, so that when they eventually do get their very own inevitable nuke we have a foundation of reasonable diplomatic relations with them.
I won’t claim to be an expert, but Iran will never have much influence on the Gulf states because (a) the Iranians are not Arabs and (b) the Iranians are not Sunnis. Besides, Iran isn’t an intrinsically anti-Western nation; it only has an anti-Western government. I don’t think the prospects for booting the mullahs out any time soon is very good, but one can always hope–especially if the next president makes the US less of a pariah, which would make Iran’s youth more restless against the anti-Western government.
Actually, many Iranians are Arabs (most are ethnic Persians). And many people in the Gulf States – and a majority in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia – are Shi’ites.
Wow a selective war that killed only Shia. Thats a nice war.Plus it was a war of domination of the Persian Gulf and the disputed oil lands. The casualty count of a million would belie your selectivity.
True, but Iran is generally considered a Shi’ite, Persian state, and the Gulf states are usually considered Sunni. These classifications ignore some subtleties, but they are politically important.
The only majority Shi’ite Gulf state is Bahrain.