Three months after the election of the Iraqi National Assembly, they’ve finally finalized a list of Cabinet appointments. Sort of. Three important ministries – Defense, Oil, and Electricity – will be held by interim appointees until a final compromise on each can be reached. http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/04/28/iraq.main/index.html
Issues for debate:
In the short term, what will this mean for the daily lives of Iraqis? Will the new government be able to speed the process of rebuilding war-damaged infrastructure?
How will this affect the insurgency? Will its popular support diminish? Will more Iraqis start to pin their hopes on the new government?
This is still only a transitional government – its main job is to draft a new constitution which the people will vote on in December, a permanent government to be elected thereafter. Will all that come off as scheduled? What will the new constitution look like?
Will the Iraqi Kurds give up on their aspirations to independence?
Does this bring any closer the date when we can start pulling out U.S. troops?
This isn’t about the short term, it’s about the long term. I can’t see any reason things will get better in the short term except as part of a gradual getting better in some areas.
It’ll give them more targets for assassination. But the new provisional government may be able to offer some kind of amnesty to lower level inusrgents to get at the big guys. Still a risky proposition as the loyalties in Iraq are tightly along tribal lines (more so than religioius lines).
I doubt it’ll be much different from the provisional constitution. It’ll recognize Islam, but won’t make Islamic law supreme-- that would never fly.
No. There was an excellent article about this in the NYT Sunday mag a few months ago. It’s probably still in their archives on line.
Rubbish, of course compromises on Islamic law will ‘fly’ contrary to popular belief, alot of the population wants a government where it isn’t ruled by religious edict, but respects the wishes of the population to practise their beliefs.
But what it means for American companies to “have a big shot at Iraqi oil” could be several different things. The neocons in the Administration wanted Iraq’s state-owned oil industry privatized, but an alliance of U.S. oil companies and State Department “pragmatists” have scotched that idea; they want some kind of state oil company. See this thread: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=313511
Biggest worry on that list is Baqir Soulagh, a member of SCIRI, getting the interior ministry. He’s going to be in control of the police and security agencies, and that has a lot of Sunnis nervous. SCIRI has connections to Iran, and this could also open the door for the Badr brigades moving into security. SCIRI is quite militant about getting rid of the ex Ba’athists (you can understand why), but that means severely alienating the Sunnis, who are reasonably afraid that they are going to be persecuted in the new government, or at least not have their concerns and needs taken as seriously as they should be.
