Here’s the essential problem, Sam. You are making two sets of assumptions: the first set is flimsy, and the second depends for support on the first.
The first set is that “good things” and “progress” are happening, even as you admit that such signs are mostly glimmers, subtleties. The patient is wracked with malaria, but the fever has gone from 105 degrees to 104.9
And the second set is that these things are a direct and provable result of American presence, wouldn’t happen if we weren’t there, and will stop happening as soon as we leave.
For instance, you hasten to remind us of Muktada al Sadr’s (apparent) weakness. “Ecce pony!”, we are victorious over our enemies.
I, for one, wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the Malikites would seize an opportunity to put a hitch in his giddyup. It may just as well be an internal struggle within the Shia wing. The Shia are going to win, the only question now is which Shia. And, as I noted before, if the Malikites can use the American army to do thier “wet work”, why not?
The Shia are, for the most part, not engaging against American troops. Is that a demonstration of some recent affection? Or are they merely perfectly content to focus American firepower and sacrifice on their Sunni enemies? If our moving from being a referee in this civil war to being an active participant is your idea of progress, you are welcome to it.
I can see how it is a tempting option for the Bushiviks. Shia domination is pretty much inevitable, and can be draped in democratic bunting with a degree of legitimacy, the Malikites were elected, freely and openly, just as the Iranian theocracy was elected with eyes wide open. When they win, one could say with a straight face that order had been restored, democracy preserved, and make a mad dash for the helicopters. Victory.
All that is required is that the Sunni insurgency be either appeased or crushed. The Malakites have shown little enthusiasm for option A, and appear pretty well determined on B. Why not? Just tell the Americans that they are crushing “Al Queda” (which works out rather neatly, since Al Q hates Shia as much or more than they hate Americans).
al Sadr’s anti-Americanism is inconvenient to this cozy arrangement. Which is likely to grow increasingly awkward, as the vast majority of the Islamic world is Sunni. You think they will take kindly to our decision to move from referee to participant? How much Saudi money is supporting the Sunni insurgency? Egyptian?
And if they decide to intervene on behalf of their co-religionists then what do we do? Shit or go blind? And if Shia oppression goes beyond “civilized” bounds into nightmare? What do we say to the Egyptians, the Saudis, the Indonesians? “Ooopsy”?
Getting the hell out of Baghdodge is not a good solution, it is not an honorable solution. But when the options run from bad to nightmare, its long past time to go.