We can’t go back in time, so don’t say “we shouldn’t be there in the first place!” We are there, the question is, what would be our best move now? Cut and run? Taper off? Ask other UN members to take over for us?
I have absolutely no idea, myself, and no compunction about declaring myself a total naive moron when it comes to Foreign Affairs (except for that Swiss guy I dated back in the early '90s).
So what is the Doper UN opinion on this?
Our dearly departed friend, collunsbury, said the US was going to have to spend $Billions and $Billions over the next 2-3 years to rebuild Iraq. IIRC Coll said around $30 billion. This is on infrastructure like the petroleum rigs & pipelines, electric generators, sewer systems, water supply, etc. All of this on top of the $4 billion a month the Pentagon is spending in the military occupation of Iraq.
Iraq’s oil revenue has already been spent about 5 times: feeding the Iraqi people over next couple years, servicing the $ billions in forgien debt Iraq owes, and reconstructing the country after 2 wars and 12 years of economic sanctions.
Unfortunately, it will be January of 2005 before we finally learn how much this war is really going to cost: when a) Bush begins his 2nd term [God forbid!!], or b) the Democratic successor start to clean up Shrub’s mess. As usual the American taxpayers will get stuck with the bill.
I think a lot of Americans who supported the war are going to be shocked that not only is the US not going to get any free oil from the invasion, but their hard-earned tax dollars are going pay for the Baghdad Power & Light Co.
Leave Iraq, declare neutrality in the Middle East, and let the people of Iraq choose to form whatever government they wish. It’s Wilsonian self-determination. We may not like the government they create, but that’s not really our place to decide.
And if the UN wants to step in, let it. Why should we care to stay? Iraq is not going to be the next Japan, we will not be able to station troops there for a decade. They hate us in Iraq, so I say remove what the targets of their hate. Pull out now.
BTW, I never seem to get a straight answer as to who owns the oil wells. Where are the private owners of those wells? Or did Saddam and his flunkies own them all? If so, I suppose we should put them up for auction to private parties. Surely we’re not planning on imposing a nationalized oil industry in Iraq, are we? All this talk of putting the oil revenues to work for “the Iraqi people” seems to imply that we were going to turn ownership of the wells over to the new Iraqi government upon its formation. Isn’t anyone thinking that perhaps the free market solution is to have the wells sold to private parties, take only the revenues of the auction for the budding government, and allow those private parties to put the wells to use generating economic growth and prosperity in Iraq? It seems like nationalization of the oil industry that puts control into the hands of the governments’ ruling elites is the problem, and privitazation is the solution.
So the US goes in there… messes it all up and then leaves ? I don’t think so. All that bloodshed to let Saddam take over again ? The US helped put Saddam there… so they might as well finish the job.
Also as regards private ownership and other free market reforms proposed by Americans… its a bit naive to think a totalitarian regime will be changed directly into a free capitalist democracy. Business and Private Business was strongly controlled by the Baath Party. It will take much longer to get anything approaching reasonable initiative by Iraqis in relation to business and even government. Those that have experience in both had ties to Saddam or the party… while the US cronies have no experience whatever.
Outsider also are reluctant to help out or invest in Iraq… afterall most countries see the occupation as illegal or quasi illegal and with no UN sanction. So unless the US intends to do it all alone and save face… they better start getting some diplomacy and humility.
Give the Iraqi people a date, within ninety days, by which we will conduct a fully defended military retreat out of the country. Warn all factions that retaliatory strikes will follow any action against our troops before that time. Notify the United Nations of our intent to do so, and follow through. Offer US citizenship to all the collaborators we relied upon during the war, and their families. Evacuate them with the military.
During the ninety days, provide every possible assistance to each local population group for the mechanical infrastructure needed to hold elections of local representatives to a Constitutional Convention to be held the day after we leave.
The oil belongs to whomever the new government of Iraq decides it belongs to. Our opinion is of no consequence, since it certainly is not ours.
Tris
And there’s your answer, Eve. I simply don’t see how “cut and run” is an option at this point. Iraq’s a bloody mess thanks to the US and the only way to fix it involves large amounts of cash – and quite a few additional lives – with no shot term returns on legal investments. Or even a guarantee it will hold together as a country. The very definition of “high risk investments.”
No easy solutions. Which is why Daddy Bush stayed the hell away from it the first time around.
Ball’s on you court.
Welcome to the SDMB, Rashak Mani.
PS-Triskadecamus, if you could pull that off in ninety days, what with the current state of disarray and Iraq’s disjointed tribal culture, IMHO, it’d be nothing short of the first recorded miracle in history.
We have the chance to do many good things in Iraq:
– Set up a decent government
– End government torture and murder
– Reverse Saddam’s ecological disasters with the Swamp Arabs
– Improve the treatment of women
– Use Iraq as a local base for American troops, rather than Saudi Arabia
– Have an Iraqi government that has good relationships with Israel
– Use the example of Iraq to pressure other middle eastern countries to improve their governments
I like december’s ideas. Anyone got a magic wand?
Yeah, but I think december left out
–don’t kill puppies and kittens
December… while you are at it… why not change the name of the country ? You changed most aspects of it anyway. Not that its a great country… quite the contrary. Iraqi with good relations with Israel ?! What did Israel do to deserve that or will do ?
You basically want Iraqi to “think” like Americans ?
Or you want an Iraqi govt so controlled by the US it's only a puppet ? If that is the case... then you certainly think democracy/freedom isn't relevant.
In fact you have the right to think so… but that is not the speech Bush gave about creating an Arab Democracy. Creating colonies in the Middle East doesnt strike me as a means of pacification unless you colonize all of it with an ironhand.
( Thanks RedFury… I do suppose you saw my # of posts… 
This report says that up to $90 billion will be required in the next decade.
And this one says that $5 billion is required almost straight away just to keep basic services running.
Well, it’s more than 90 days since “major combat operations” ended and they haven’t even got the power and water switched back on yet. Do you really think that this is a realistic timescale. And who exactly is in charge of the country when US troops pull out and the process of drawing up a constitution to form a governement doesn’t even start until the next day?
The UN wants Bush’s balls varnished and adorning Kofi Annan’s mantle piece. After all that’s passed, why wouldn’t it ?
I guess the important slices of context for me are:
Hence, in the case of Iraq, the acquisition of a leading supplier by the main market player.
This means that, post-9/11, Iraq is right at the very heart of US strategic planning for the medium term; in consequence, the empire cannot leave the acquisition without exposing itself – and thus weakening it’s base - to an unacceptable degree. The US simply cannot leave Baghdad and has, what, five bases (across the country) earmarked and in development for long-term occupation ?
Just more indications (along with Bagran Airbase in Afghanistan) of the intention to protect the supply lines, actual or potential.
And so, the US has cobbled together a small token force of what the British used to call ‘empire troops’: These are the poor bastards:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3134763.stm
Note, they’re not UN troops or under the command of NATO . . .which means they have little or no experience or knowledge of occupation and/or ‘nation building:
*”A deal has been agreed under which the US will pay about $200m in support costs - such as meals and medical care - and about $40m to airlift the troops to Iraq in the first place.
But the key cost - that of paying the troops’ wages - will not be footed by the US, alleviating a significant portion of its present expenditure in the country. “*
It’s now legal for Israeli companies to do business in Iraq. An Israeli company just won a public telephone contract in Iraq.
Sure. To want less for them would be bigotry against the Iraqi people.
They aren’t inconsistent. A period of American control can lead to democracy. It worked very well in Japan and Germany after WW2.
Sure enough, the Wilson plan did do it’s job, how many American lives will be expended in the meantime ?
It might be worth it in the longer term, I wonder if US public opimion will see it the same way.
No, to want citizens of Iraq (a sovereign nation and a separate culture, don’t’cha know) to think like Americans is bigotry against the Iraqi people. It’s a lack of respect and a spit in the face to how they might want to think.
Very nice.
Oh, and welcome to the boards, Rashak Mani. Good questions thus far. I’ve been asking the same ones for a while. Maybe someone will come along, someday, who can actually give reasonable, no-bullshit answers to them.
As to the OP, I’d say we (meaning the US) have dug ourselves into quite a pit. The answer to the question is not to keep digging, but to start the process of climbing out. I personally like the process Triskadecamus describes, but I agree with others that 90 days is not nearly long enough for such an undertaking. On a WAG, I’d say 9 months to a year is much more likely.
Of course, I’d like to see our forces out of there and a real international coalition (most likely put together by the UN) put in its place as soon as possible. However, the way things are going, that’s not going to be anytime soon. A sudden withdrawal would likely cause more problems than it solves. While I do feel we should not have been in Iraq in the first place (not like this, anyway), now that we are there, we have some obligation to try and restore some semblance of order before we go. To do anything less would be rather unforgiveable at this point, and would pretty much destroy any shred of international credibility this country has left.
Yeah, I’m a little bitter about the whole thing. So are a great many others.
I really don’t know why the American govt. (and sometimes its people) think that they have the right to decide the rest of the world’s future.
Why should the Iraqi people think like Americans? I think they that a people whose culture is many thousands of years old are perfectly capable of doing some thinking on their own.
For the most part American control has only resulted in some seriously screwed up countries. Sure it can lead to democracy. Why waste time – let’s have a democracy right away.
Thanks Avalonian…
I agree the US is digging itself ever deeper. Part of the digging out involves getting rid of Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and puppet governments of Iraq and the USA thou. The day Bush leaves office and a reasonable Republican or Democrat takes over the amount international goodwill should be amazing towards helping out in Iraq.
Do you think Iraq guerrilas would shoot at american hummers if onboard every vehicle is a fellow Arab too ? (maybe yes… but probably much much less) Getting Egyptian, Syrian, even Saudi peacekeepers into Iraq is a good first step.
I just hope longterm trust in the USA hasnt been damaged too badly thou. Many people still associate the current "style" as neo conservative or Bushie. If he gets reelected the international community might give up on trusting the US in a more serious manner. Which is a pity.... the US until Bush Jr. had been a pretty reasonable hegemon.Did you see the list of the countries that are sending peacekeepers to Iraq ?
Link: BBC NEWS | Middle East | Alleviation for US in Iraq
These are the allies the US likes to say support its wide ranging coalition !! I dont want to be mean or offend anyones country. Mongolia and Honduras simply dont seem to be world leaders. I am very good in geography so I know where all these countries are but barely… I very much doubt most Americans know. Of course we have a few significant countries… but give me a UN coalition anyday. The USA in '91 invaded Iraq side by side with an enormous amount of support… including Syria.
Oh i don’t know Maybe they’d be better of as say…Ohhhh…Uhmm…let’s pick a nation entirely at random…as say like the French?
Think of the advantages they’d have.
I mean as long as your abandoing several thousand years of history and culture anyway. Why not shop around a little first? See what you like the look off.
Porpoise, unfortunately your argument does not resonate entirely with Americans, because it’s the same one a lot of our slave-holders used before the Civil War to justify their owning of other people. It was their ‘peculiar institution’, part of their culture and heritage. Hey, your own country is still trying to get rid of suttee and the caste system–do you think they’re fine just because they’ve been around for a long time? As a modern Indian, aren’t you at all happy that India is a major and powerful nation and no longer a collection of serfs presided over by a bunch of allegedly benevolent rajahs? Because that’s your heritage.
Cultures evolve. They grow up. They get better and expand their rights to more and more of their people. Iraq is still trapped in the idea of your clan and tribe being all-important, something that made the rise of Saddam possible. I’m afraid it would happen again if America just up and left, because the change in thinking is not yet there–most of the people just seem to be seeing America as another big tribe that’s supposed to dole out favors and gifts.