Let’s keep in mind this is an election year, and the first presidential election after 9/11.
So the electorate is going to be polarized to begin with. By that I mean there will be a certain percentage of voters who will vote one way or another regardless of the candidate or their positions on issues–i.e., a generic Republican or Democrat can count on, I guess, 25% of the vote to begin with.
Then you add the 2000 election, the war against Iraq, and the aforementioned 9/11, and each side goes up to 40% or so of the electorate who will vote their candidate, no question about it, LALALALALALA I’M NOT LISTENING TO ANYONE WHO TELLS ME OTHERWISE AND I WON’T PULL MY FINGERS OUT OF MY EARS UNTIL IT COMES TIME TO PUNCH A VOTER CARD.
That is what you’re seeing here. It’s Bush vs AnybodyButBush, evenly matched. You will get variations based on whether a poll queries registered voters vs likely voters, how a poll asks a certain question (scotandrsn parsed this pretty well), etc., etc.
I haven’t seen anything that indicates one campaign is pulling ahead of the other. Remember, it’s not statistically significant unless the difference between the candidates is at least twice as large as the margin of error. And there’s a lot of people who haven’t made up their minds yet, and won’t until September at the earliest.
For every Kerry supporter who wonders how the hell Bush’s numbers stayed where they were, and even rose, after the month he had, there’s a Bush supporter wondering how Kerry’s numbers didn’t drop after $50 million worth of political carpet bombs dropped on the “battleground states”.
Personally, what I think will happen is Bush will get so many votes from his “red states” that he’ll end up winning the popular election . . . and lose in the electoral college. And the day after the election, it will be announced that Osama bin Laden was actually captured months before.
By the French forces that are in Afghanistan.