Iraq, WMDs, Who Doubted?

Ranchoth

We are? In what way are we better off? Have we removed an eyesore, is that it? Is it some kind of aesthetic thing?

Because in practical terms its hard to see how. Saddam was no threat to us, couldn’t have threatened us if he had wanted to. We have spent a gazillion dollars and some 500 of our soldiers, and we ain’t done yet. When will we be done? I don’t know. Do you? Could you maybe outline just how much blood and treasure is “justified” to accomplish this lofty goal? 200 billion dollars? 500? More? A thousand soldiers, 10,000 civilians? More? At what point do you cry “Hold! Enough!”?

And on what basis do you determine that the Iraqis are “better off”? Howzabout this for counterpoint:
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/front/7765782.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

"CIA officers in Iraq are warning that the country may be on a path to civil war, current and former U.S. officials said yesterday, starkly contradicting the upbeat assessment that President Bush gave in his State of the Union address.

The CIA officers’ bleak assessment was delivered orally to Washington this week, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the classified information involved."

Is this sort of thing what you mean by “better off”?

In answer to the OP, here’s my (incorrect) stance on March 12, 2003:

I can see you’ve really thought this one through, Doc. :rolleyes:

Who’s gonna be in charge once the US walks out in July?

Did you miss the “prior to the war” part?

In any case, I was under the impression we’re not “walking out” in July, we’re handing over power to a purely Iraqui… something. Whether that something is a Parliment, a President, a group of clerics or a cabinet of ministers is still unclear.

But as far as I understand it, we will still be there helping rebuild, training the police and military, etcetera.

I’m of the opinion that our policymakers that have promoted and used the term ‘WMD’ deserve a good asskicking. Its imo extremely detrimental to any serious debate, conflates radically different types of weapons and is chiefly used in emotive fearmongering.

I took it for granted that after all the fuss and its past history that Iraq did possess chemical weapons so I guess I fell for the snake oil in that regard, more fool me. I just didnt think chemical weapons justified war and that it was a ridiculously flimsy pretext. It seemed obvious to me after the IAEA reports and faked documents that Iraq did not have nukes and wasnt working on them. Nukes are the only weapons that I think would have merited such concern but I dont think nukes would have justified war either.

Dr. King:

Whew. You had me worried for a minute there.
Ranchoth:

You know, this question gets asked a lot, often as if the mere asking could serve as evidence that Iraq possessed “WMDs.” But when you stop to think about it, there could be a number of explanations for Hussein’s apparently irrational intransigence vis-à-vis the UN inspectors.

To begin with, it is well known that the inspectors were spying on Iraq on behalf of various western governments. This sort of activity was prohibited by the cease-fire agreement, but it went on anyway. Perhaps Iraq had good reason to resist inspections that were simultaneously information-gathering exercises far beyond the “WMD” official inspectors’ mandate. The Iraqi government doubtless had state secrets other than its weapons programs that it wished to keep clandestine, for whatever reason.

In addition, it is possible that Hussein resisted the inspections so as to increase his prestige among other Arab nations. That, at any rate, is Tariq Aziz’s explanation.

In addition, Kenneth Pollack argues cogently in a recent article that Saddam was probably motivated more by internal than external considerations. Characterizing Hussein’s grip on power as “very shaky”, Pollack notes:

Given this state of affairs, Pollack reckons that Hussein found himself between a rock and a hard place:

David Kay provides us with yet another possible explanation – namely, that Hussein had become rather unhinged over the last couple of years. I quoted the relevant section of the text in my previous post, but just to reiterate:

The simple fact is that there are a multitude of possible explanations for Hussein’s actions, and just because one of them happens to be near to hand doesn’t necessarily guarantee it’s correctness – Occam notwithstanding.

Sept 7, 2002 Iraq: What’s the Evidence?:

Nothing ever happened to change my mind.
I am certain that bin Laden thanks the Lord daily for the respite America’s haring off after Saddam has provided him and his organization. The resulting quagmire and international disharmony ensures him that it will be a long long time before anyone can mount an effective campaign against the stateless terrorists.

Don’t be cagey, did you “suspect” beforehand, or did you know? I was challenging people here to prove they knew SH didn’t have WMD and said so before the invasion. So far, only the illustrious London_calling was able to provide the proof. Him and Scott Ritter make exactly two people.

There were exceptions, though: war of 1812, Barbary pirates expedition, Mexican war, Spanish war, WWI, Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, GWI, Somalia, Kosovo…

How the hell could we know that he didn’t have WMD? I don’t have access to all our intelligence information. Heck, I don’t know that you aren’t building a nuke in your basement, but I won’t tell people that I do and then say that I want to invade your house, perhaps killing a few members of your family in the process.

The point is that we were told that SH did have WMD. We weren’t told he might have WMD. We (meaning those who were skeptical of this Administration) kept asking for evidence and not finding it satisfactory. Plenty of people found Powell’s UN presentation unconvincing (although not many in Congress, it seems)–The Nation published at least two pieces saying he had not made a strong enough case.

Also, some things were known by us. It was known that the weapons inspectors were quite confident that Hussein hadn’t reconstituted any serious nuclear program. While chemical and biological weapons are easier to hide, it was at least known that the inspectors weren’t so far finding any under a pretty intrusive inspections regime. I also seem to recall that certain facts about the U.S./British intelligence were known like the forged Niger documents and the plagiarized British intelligence report, although I could be wrong on the timing of the former.

For the record, my feeling before the war was that, based on their past history, neither Bush nor Hussein had a shred of credibility whatsoever and so we had to go on independent verifiable facts. My wild-ass-guess was that the truth might lie somewhere “half-way” in between…i.e., Saddam has a bit of chemical or biological weapons but less than the Bush Administration claimed and nothing that justifies him being considered an imminent threat. As history has now taught me, my wild-ass-guess still managed to overestimate Bush’s credibility!

But, I don’t see what relevance it has whether we knew or not what SH had or did not have. Our knowledge was only based on what we were being told, largely by the Administration and some by independent sources like the inspectors. Bush’s knowledge was based on what he was being told which is a lot more than what we were being told. And, this Administration has hardly been forthcoming about exactly what Bush was told.

The Administration has thus far given us no reason to doubt that they were guilty at best of believing what they wanted to believe, cherry-picking intelligence, and overstating their confidence in what they believed. At worst, they were outright lying. Hell, people like Cheney continue to obfuscate to this day. And, Bush uses contorted phrases like “weapons-of-mass-destruction related program activities” to obfuscate.

And, there is plenty of evidence that this Administration considers misleading statements and outright lies to be one of the most trusted tools in its toolbox for convincing the public and others to go along with its policies in domestic policy areas ranging from tax policy to the environment.

Cite?
At least ten characters added.

If it makes New Iskander happy, I’ll readily admit that I believed before the war that Iraq had WMDs. I’d search for my earlier posts on the topic, but I’m lazy. :wink:

However… I also said – at those times, which a search would verify – that the amount of WMDs Saddam had would be trivially insignificant. Probably no more than a mayonayse jar full of spoiled anthrax, shoved in a cupboard somewhere. A far cry from the 500,000 tons of vX that George W. Bush was claiming at the time, and certainly nothing that would have justified the war.

Of course, the Administration was insisting up and down the Euphredes that Saddam had a massive arsenal of WMDs, and the Bushistas toed the line in their cute little non-thinking way, bless 'em. I can only imagine the fact that Saddam didn’t have any WMDs is too much of a shock for their poor little psyches, so they’re now resorting to desperate tactics like throwing out bullshit that “everyone believed Saddam had massive quantities of WMDs!”

No, we didn’t. And we were right.

200 Billion dollars isn’t going to send our nation into hock. And about our military losses…considering that we lost 500 troops over most of a years, in an entire country, and most of the casualties have been from low-intensity guerilla attacks, I’d say that, militarily, we’re not doing half bad.

This is an—unofficial—warning about something that might happen. Civil war won’t definately happen. We can take measures, such as bumping up the election schedule, to keep it from happening. I doubt that we’re just going to sit around with our thumbs up our collective wazoo and wait for Hell to break loose.

And I think the Iraqi people are “better off” because we’ve removed a dictator who was, by all accounts, a psycho asshole. And we’re laying the foundations for a new democratic government in Iraq, that’s probably going to be at least marginally less psycho-assholey.

And I imagine that things are going to be better for the Iraqi people when the UN Sanctions get lifted, too.

And the U.S. will be better off because we’re working to make Iraq into a place accessible to U.S. interests—political, military, economic, and whatever else.

I’m not an Isolationist. I don’t believe that we should just stand by and hope that the world will make itself better. Especially when we have the power and ability to do something about it.

Maybe by leaving Saddam alone, things wouldn’t have gotten worse. But, by going after him, things are able to get better.

I’m not pretending that the Iraq war was altruism embodied. We went into Iraq because it served our interests. It may sound callous or greedy, but that’s what countries do…they look out for #1. And, as it happens, making Iraq a better place for the U.S. is going to be good for a lot of other people, too.

Yeah…Just like Iraq did to Kuwait. And, Germany did to much of the rest of Europe. Invading nations for one’s own countries interests does indeed have a long and glorious history…But perhaps one that we would not want to emulate.

[Note: These countries also claimed they were doing good for the people involved. Now, I am not a complete moral relativist and I do see distinctions between these nations and the U.S. But, still, I just don’t see how one can justify having one set of rules for ourselves and another set of rules for everyone else.]

An argument that completely ignores economic realities. The amount of business both nations were doing with Iraq is so unimportant to their overall economy that it takes a great deal of malevolence to suggest economic reasons. The war action itself, with its influence on consumer confidence, had a much more severe effect not just on the economy of these countries but others as well, than the loss of any business with Iraq could ever have had.

Aside from that, it takes great disingenuity to claim a government that saw companies prosecuted for foreign subsidiaries selling items to Iraq perfectly consistent with regular civilian infrastructure, but of potential use in missile guidance systems, would put business with Iraq over everything else.

As noted upthread, there’s no way any of us could KNOW Iraq did or didn’t have nukes, so the OP is for shit in a lot of respect.

As I recall, the debate over the invasion of Iraq was couched in terms of whether or not the U.S. should launch a pre-emptive strike or stay with the U.N. peace accords. Even then, there were a lot of voices saying the evidence for nukes was scant or nonexistent, and we should continue with the sanctions and containment – it was working so why fix it? And that’s why I opposed the invasion of Iraq.

So I didn’t KNOW whether or not Iraq had nukes, but I figured, sanctions aren’t broke, so why fix 'em?

As for the after-the-fact claims that invading Iraq has been a good thing and will make America’s position in the world stronger – I think that remains to be seen. We’ve got a lot of troops mired in a Mess O’ Potamia now, with a group of bloodthirsty Sunnis, Shias and Kurds who hate each other’s guts with a passion. My feeling is they are all playing nice while the tanks are in town, but once the American ground forces leave, they’ll be at each other’s throats.

In the meantime, the invasion of Iraq has done nothing but strengthen the stateless terrorists like Al Qaeda, giving them time to regroup and making them a LOT more popular in the Middle East. It has done nothing to shore up the Saudi regime whose purported instability is the realpolitik rationale for the invasion of Iraq. And while deposing Saddam’s regime had some human rights benefits, why, there’s a whole laundry list of dictators whom we could stand to topple on those grounds, which would leave us in a much less precarious situation post-toppling.

This analogy is extremely flawed, because it leaves without mention the 12 year history preceding the invasion and reputation of the invaded party.

If you were to say that I was an arrogant and repressive bully; terrorized my own household for decades; started mayhem in the neighbourhood; had to be beaten into submission by superior force; had sanctions imposed on me; required constant surveillance for 12 years; never cooperated with authorities; always behaved in provocative and threatening matter; required repetitive use of force to keep me in check; then, when my property is raided by authorities and shoot-out ensues, which leads to “killing a few members of my family in the process”, the conclusion must be drawn that I was asking for it all the time and bear the whole responsibility for the results.

If you were to say something like that, you would be making a good and comprehensive analogy. Instead, you put the whole blame on the sheriff who decided to go ahead with the raid.

Not “sheriff”, implying acting on behalf of, and with the approval and support of, the public, but “self-appointed vigilante”.

Either way, if we said all those bad things about you, it would be our responsibility to make sure first before “making you shoot back”.

Now, about all those insurgent attacks that have been happening unrelated to Saddam anyway - got a simplistic and self-excusing analogy for those, too?

Nice sig line. Apply it to your mirror.

POTUS=“self-appointed vigilante”? Oh, yes, “selected”, right… But wait, still not “self-appointed”, no?

Why didn’t Clinton do so in Waco?

Easy. Ever tried to destroy a hornets nest?

Did that ten years ago, honest. Like to follow suit?