US combat forces in Iraq (currently numbering about 2500) are scheduled to end their mission by the end of 2021. (Some US troops are expected to remain as “advisors.”) [Source: CNN]
What do you think will happen in Iraq once the US combat mission ends there?
For many of us watching from the West, I think there’s a natural tendency to draw analogies with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But I wonder just how reliable those parallels are. Certainly the respective insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq each have their own particular context.
I think it depends on whether the populace and military will continue to support the current government. If there is reasonable stability and enough military aid they can probably maintain the status quo, but that’s a big if. My guess is that the current government will soon fall and it will be a free-for-all until a strongman similar to Saddam Hussein takes over.
I think leaving some troops as advisors is the worst option: on one hand there is no U.S. force to help defeat terrorists; on the other hand the opponents of the current Iraq government can use this to raise resentment toward the Iraq government (the Iraq government is still a puppet of the United States as evidenced by these troops…) and to incite terrorism against the U.S.
From what I remember, Iraq once had a modern economy until it was ruined by the Iran-Iraq war, which was likely encouraged by the U.S. which was funding it and, before that, the Shah of Iran.
Later, the U.S. tried to negotiate between its own puppets, former Ba’ath officials, and Islamic fundamentalist groups which were for years suppressed by Saddam. Before that, the U.S. was funding such groups to counter the Soviets in places like Afghanistan, and which eventually led to blowback.