If the Kurdish-Shi’ite alliance splits, what then? Will the Kurds declare independence? How will this affect the scheduled October 15 referendum on the new constitution?
As alluded to in the OP, Kirkuk is the next big thing. Before all is said and done, it will take center stage in the struggle between the Kurds and everyone else. It’s too big a prize for either side to give up.
And I’m not altogether sure why people think the adoption of the constitution will be “disastrous” for the insurgency. Why should it be, after all?