Is a full-scale, successful invasion of the US possible?

What to do when the Russians Come, I think I remember that as the title, was written at the height of the Cold War. It was a list of practical advice such as do you object when invading soldiers want to rape your wife. (Ans. Intervening will stop rape by interupting it with your death.)

It prefaced the advice by saying that Russia often ‘invaded’ not as a military invasion but as Inspectors checking for compliance to disarmament treaties.

My point being that invasion of US is possible if it is preceded by teams of Inspectors. Not giving too much thought to it, suppose the UN requires us to submit to Weapons of Mass Distruction inspections after a UN resolution to ban a certain type of, oh say, genetic warfare. The US may submit to ensure that the current Dictator du jour also submits. The EU sends Inspectors. Viola`, in a few years of increasingly stringent inspection rules there’s a French soldier on every streetcorner.

It could happen.

How on earth could the US be taken by surprise for God’s sake.

Is you Intel so crap it can’t identify massing armies? What would they think it was, a few hundred thousand Mexicans or Canadians sauntering casually towards the border complete with picnic baskets of mass destruction?

That’s just complete and utter rampant paranoia.

The only plausible notion I’ve read thus far, and even it is really, really pushing the envelope of possibility - is a Tom Clancy novel where “ebola virus” was disseminated in an airborne weaponised form in multiple US cities simultaneously - thereby rendering the US population in a “locked down quarantine” state which opened “a window of opportunity”.

But even in that scenario - the window of opportunity arose for Iran to invade Iraq and the ultimate string pullers were the Chinese. The novel, whilst quite realistic and believable in terms of “virus takeup vectors” etc also quite rightly pointed out that such a method of “paralysis” was also a blatant use of a WMD within US territory - and as such, was legitimately answerable with a nuclear strike.

It seems to me that the presence of nukes in the hands of the world’s major powers, ultimately, is a good thing - in so far as it forces at least a miniscule of “self preservation restraint” on potential combatants. In this context, it’s probably a good thing that Pakistan and India have them too. It’s the world’s remaining “line in the sand” between Islamic colonisation and the Hindu and Buddhist regions of Asia and the sub continent.

Certainly, in regards to the OP - as I said earlier, to invade the US and force it to it’s knees against it’s will would require at least 12 million foreign soldiers - totally ruthless soldiers too. It would also require those soldiers to probably kill at least as many again of the US population just to enforce some sort of terror.

I simply can’t imagine such a strike force being assembled without the remarkable resources of US intelligence (and her allies - and she would have them - trust me) not being able to see the big hay maker punch coming.

I think the outcome would be the same as the US trying to invade Europe. total anihalation, you just couldnt transport enough men and materials accros the Atlantic, and expect them to survive. Special forces would be a bitch for the Americans to stop though, especially in the cities.

rogue

Maybe I’m nitpicking about definitions, but you do have to ask what the term “successful” means. What would an invader’s goal be? You can’t decide whether or not a military operation has been or is likely to be successful unless you have some idea of what its intended purpose is.

Mere destruction? Then nuclear and/or CBW is the way to go. An actual invasion would not only be unnecessary, it would actually be counterproductive.

Conquest? Do they want to take over the US or some portion of it and establish their own political rule? A wildly improbable scenario. I am immensely skeptical that any nation or any combination of nations has the motive, the military assets, and the political will to pull this off. I suspect that, by the time the United States was militarily weak enough to be conquered by conventional forces, our society would have decayed to the point that it would scarcely be worth conquering.

Hit and run? Do they simply want to seize some US territorial assets to squeeze concessions or tribute from the Yanks? This one might be doable. I don’t find it too hard to imagine that some power might infiltrate a few thousand, or even a few hundred commandos or special operatives (dressed as civilians, of course) into an American city and raise some hell. Even if they only had small arms and plastic explosives, a well-coordinated strike could leave them pretty much in control of a city. Local police probably couldn’t deal with a sizeable force of military professionals, and it would take hours to get National Guard or regular military units into action. Key points of the city could be seized before most of the population figured out what was going on and knew who to shoot at, and a high civilian death toll would be probable if intense fighting broke out. By then, you in effect are holding an American city (or a large part of one) hostage, and you present your list of demands.

Yeah, I know there are serious, perhaps even laughable, weaknesses here. You would need to position weapon and ammo caches in your target city weeks or months ahead of time, a major operation in itself. Your troops would need to gather in your target city for days, weeks or months, without arousing suspicion, and your men would have to be very well trained and have a high level of discipline. Mere terrorists would not do here–you would need military pros. And while such a force wouldn’t be as easily detectable as an invasion fleet, it would difficult or impossible to maintain the severely strict level of security needed to make the operation successful. Even a first class military power would have trouble pulling off such an operation, let alone a rogue nation like Irag or Korea. Even so, I see it as the most plausible scenario in which foreign troops actually set foot on American soil.

I’m done. Go ahead and rip it to shreds now.

And I think it’s time for the OP to admit he’s really Tom Clancy trolling to get fresh ideas for his next novel. :smiley:

Actually, I believe he was thinking of small groups of special ops or something. Which would indeed be possible.

I refer you to the title of the thread. Full-scale invasion. It is still rampant paranoia to think any country will attack the US with, oooh, scary, boo, “Special Forces.”

tagos, don’t be a dick. Actually look at Airman’s posts a couple of points down when I pointed out that the OP said successful invasion which implied conquest and he said, “Gotcha on the last point.” See, to normal users of the English language this would then imply that he didn’t think of that when he made his post and probably just read “invasion.” There’s a thing called reading the whole thread before you post - please try it.

When I started the thread, I was thinking along the lines of the second suggestion in your post, which was conquest. I wasn’t so much interested why anyone would want to, though. I was curious as to whether or not it could actually be done, and if so, how. I’ve gotten some damned interesting answers, too. Of course, the consensus is pretty much “no,” but learning the why behind the no has been quite enlightening.

I wish! I could use the extra cash! I will admit, though, that I have read all of the Jack Ryan books, except for The Bear and the Dragon. I have that one, but I just haven’t gotten around to reading it yet.

I know, I know. “You read Tom Clancy, and you still had to ask if we could be invaded?” Well, yes. Clancy gets a little too technical for me sometimes. Dopers, on the other hand, will speak slowly and use small words if you ask them nicely. :smiley:

Name calling, how mature. Thanks for letting me know whose posts to ignore in future.

:rolleyes:

Assumeing “we” are the baddies…

First, we wait until the US is fully embroiled in a war on the other side of the world- Iraq will do nicely if it starts getting messy. Then we set off a short burst of terror attacks on the East Coast.

Meanwhile, in California, we send spies- poseing as either as military recruits or some kind of contracted workers- to check out the military bases. Get to know their weaknesses. Have them come up with ways to booby-trap and sabotage these bases when the time comes.

Then we send forces up into California from Mexico. Using all the information we have, plus whatever traps we could lay beforehand, we take over as many military bases as possible. We used the comandeered bases to hold our ground while we plan on how to take over the East. I think if we could secure California, we’d have a pretty good chance at the rest of the US.

MEBuckner:
That’s 1 million legal immigrants to the US, not including temporary visas (like work and student). I have seen estimates that there are 5-10 million illegal immigrants per year coming from Mexico alone. Now while that may be high, what I am talking about is 2 million per year who come into the country by all of the possible means, legal and illegal. Have some claim asylum, have some start as college students, have some find jobs or try for citizenship, and when all others are maxed out, then smuggle them in with the opium. I think it is doable.

As to the secrecy, Chinese communities are notoriously reluctant to talk to anyone other that those in their community. Besides who would believe the story? I could just see careers coming to an end just for the suggestion.

But Sven, how are you going to hold those bases in Mexico when the B-52s start carpet bombing them? Assaulting miltary bases in secret isn’t exactly easy you know. The trouble with a widespread coordinated surprise attack is that you have to keep it, well, secret. One guy gets stopped by a cop for having a busted tail light, and the truck turns out to be full of explosives, the feds put the screws to the prisoner, and suddenly you’ve lost surprise. Your rag tag group of workers shows up at Ft. Lewis and they all are killed in a 30 second burst of machine gun fire.

Please remember that an invader has the clock ticking against him. You have to keep your troops supplied somehow. In modern warfare that doesn’t mean food and .22 rifle ammunition. It means fuel, spare parts, rockets, tanks, helicopters, trucks, munitions, medicine, new recruits for when your first invasion force is chewed to bits.

Agents can hide out in the countryside, or hole up in safe houses in the cities, and may be difficult to root out, and may cause tremendous damage to the country and many casualties among civilians. But they can’t occupy the country unless they can stand up and fight and defeat the US military. Eventually they are going to have to take out the tanks and helicopters and bombers somehow. And all this time, the tanks and helicopter and bombers aren’t going to be sitting around waiting for you to complete your improvised plan. They’re going to be pounding you into oblivioun.

Ewiser, the population of the United States is still well under three hundred million. I think we’d notice if even the lower estimate – 5 million – were coming in yearly. It’s bound to raise some eyebrows when we take a census every ten years and the population is 50 to 100 million people larger than it should be, when birthrate and immigration are taken into account. Besides, millions of people with a secret means that it isn’t very secret anymore. A single report may be regarded as false, but a few thousand reports of the same thing are worth looking into, right?

As for the navy angle… there aren’t any other carriers in the world that are a match for our ten (two still in various stages of construction) Nimitz Class carriers, the Enterprise, the JFK, the Kitty Hawk, and the Constellation. While other countries have indeed built carriers, they’re mostly helicopter and Harrier carriers. A Harrier is no match for an F-14 or F-18. Not to menion that each one of our carriers is protected by many ships. If a surprise attack was launched with carriers as the target, we might lose a few of the 14. The remaining 9 could really ruin what’s left of your life (about 15 minutes).

As for submarines… it doesn’t really matter how “stealthy” the ship is, when both boats are practically holes in the water. The contest is decided by who has to come up for air first – that would be the European diesel boats, not the Los Angeles class nukes. Out three Seawolf class boats are the best in the world, and the new Virginia class is more advanced than anything but the Seawolf. Really, I think the only match for even our Los Angeles boats are the newest Russian ones, not the European ones. And lastly, American surface forces are the most extensive in the world. No matter how stealthy a boat is, active sonar will find it quickly. There’s no getting close to any American carriers when you have a ring of destroyers around it, and planes dropping sonar buoys.

-Psi Cop

Yeah but who will notice it? In fact, how do we know they hadnt already invaded us? Did someone forget a war memo??!!

Given the current US military capability, there is no way for any country or coalition of countries to invade and conquer the USA. Therefore, the only option is to destroy as much of the USA without leaving a verifiable trace of responsible country. The only way to defeat the USA is to whittle it down. No declaration of war will ever be given.

This would first require anti-satellite missiles. Air launched from unmarked jets simultaneously at all known spy satellites.

This would also require a secret submarine capable of launching ICBMs. First strike would be atmospheric. EMPs over major areas and temporarily knock out satellites and surveillance. Then launch massive strikes against major cities. All countries will deny involvement. Secret sub will sef destruct when caught.

Then determination is needed at where the gaps are in satellite surveilance. Further nuclear attacks will be made from blind spots. Priority targets are the carriers, washington DC and industry, communication capability.

Lastly, spread US military all over the world. Attack all US bases and ports and destroy all US businesses around the world.

One BIG drawback. If Rumsfeld is the only one left, he’d nuke everything out of spite.

Oy vey,

I’ve tried to read through the previous posts and scenarios, and it makes my head hurt trying to formulate a response. In any case, given that US early warning systems are still up and running, given a general consensus on the standing US Ordre of Battle, given t he current state of politics . . .

I could appreciate the conventional invation of the continental United States, but I wouldn’t expect it to last long: I expect the “Continentals”* to stand up and make the invasionary force mincemeat in a matter of weeks.

The US has a terriffic system of ham radios. We’re guaranteed the right to bear arms against oppressors. We’re also guaranteed the right to assemble. . .

I can’t see any foreign force attempting to take the continental US without massive harrassive/ambush casualties.

Tripler
*****: Continentals, I mean the regular folk that would actually stand up to shoot OPFOR, in addition to the militia nuts that currently exist.

I read this one too. Entertaining, it was. Is something like this a viable option? Hitting us from the inside first, with biological weapons, as set forth in Tom Clancy’s novel (it’s *Executive Orders, * btw)? IIRC, in that scenario, the weapons were quite small-scale, hidden inside shaving cream canisters, and placed in strategic locations where large crowds of civilians would be gathering, such as sporting events. There weren’t a lot of them, but there were enough to cause a nationwide outbreak of ebola.

I know the military has rather a lot of stuff to protect themselves against biological weapons, but a) is ebola one of the ones they can protect themselves against, and b) would an attack in a style like that make an invasion any easier?

Okay, here’s my plan.

The awesome military might detailed in this thread is heavily dependent on the exorbitant U.S. defense budget, about $380 billion this year alone. The maintenance of those satellites, submarines, troops, carriers, and missiles is very expensive.

I would attack the U.S. on the multi-decade plan. The first stage would be to degrade the U.S. economy. This would be difficult, but there are a couple of weak spots, the most important of which is oil. This single commodity is the energy supply for our factories, for farmer’s tractors that feed us, and for the generation of the electricity that keeps us out of the nineteenth century. Seriously attack the oil supply and in ten years a lot of that U.S. military might will be rusty, busted, and out of gas.

How can this be accomplished? It would require a unity in the Middle East that is unlikely to occur without a conqueror arising in that region. Even then, it would drastically pummel the economy of the entire rest of the world, including - perhaps especially - the Middle East itself. So if we can imagine a powerful uniter of the disparate oil-controlling nations of that part of the world, we also have to imagine him as a dictator who could maintain power while his people starved and languished in poverty through his own actions.

I will now assume the role of such a dictator.

I first sieze Nigeria and Venezuela to finish consolidating my oil power. I keep the U.S. from squawking by threatening to cut off the Middle East oil I already control if they interfere. By promising to increase output, I will be allowed to liberate the oppressed peasants of Caracas to my enlightened rule. Indeed, I will all the way along prove myself to be the best of U.S. allies, backing them in every political debate, supplying oil in a steady and uninterrupted flow at historically cheap prices, and otherwise making myself a buddy.

Until the day I turn the faucet off. I wouldn’t do this, of course, in a way that would precipitate war. I would just start raising prices a little faster than the U.S. can adapt. Then, maybe, I would have an unfortunate spate of well fires and tanker accidents. Maybe government regulations would choke the ability of my oil fields to keep up their equipment - you know, it’s hard to meet my tough environmental standards, and who can bitch about that? The Greens in Europe applaud me. Over a few years, the oil production falls by 10%, then 20%. Then it’s El Nino and a very cold winter. I have to balance the needs of the world with those of the U.S. don’t I? And if Europe and Japan are getting adequate amounts of a commodity that is, after all, in short supply, are they really going to piss me off by taking the side of the U.S. when it complains? In time, I have squeezed the energy supply of the U.S. to the point where it is only 50% of current levels - and that is fifteen years down the road, when the energy demand is 130% of what it is today!

The awesome might of the Soviet Union decayed surprisingly fast when their economy went south. I have no reason to believe U.S. high-tech gear would be any more robust against my onslaught of poverty.

Coupled with my economic attack I would sneak into the U.S. a few cells of people trained not in anything as silly as making C4 out of moth balls and bleach, but trained rather in psychology and even oratory. Their job would be to pose as Americans and enter the political system if at all possible, at the municipal and state level. Then when things went to hell, they would blame those damn fat cats in Washington and otherwise rabble rouse. The central government would be demonized by very eloquent voices for ignoring the people’s needs. The ultimate goal is to develop seperatist sentiments in various regions of the United States, and otherwise undermine support for your federal rulers, who of course are “laughing it up at their country clubs while good, honest folk are starving”. If my people are found out, or caught, they still serve my purpose: Knowing that foreign agent provocateurs are worming their way into the government, how trustful would people be of those in power, generally? The economy has tanked and the President has not taken action nearly drastic enough. Why, maybe he’s an agent, too! Anyone could be! With any luck, we’d get a witch hunt right at the most vulnerable moment.

Then I attack France. Not just because their snooty and have it coming, either. Actually, I have been almost as staunch an ally of France over the years as I have been of the U.S. Now I arrange to make it look like American troops invading Brittany, or an American bomb exploding in Marseilles, or whatever. I doubt the French public would harbor a moment’s doubt about those evil cowboys attacking them. I’ve had ten years to condition them, and really it didn’t take much effort. When rumors spread about how it was really me, I respond with genuine shock and reluctantly take sides with my only true, sniff, loyal friend, the United States. Not that I will take part in any combat, of course. It’s just moral support. With just a little luck, a war with France will wear out what’s left of the U.S. arsenal and alienate at least half the world.

Now I embark on my invasion, attacking Washington itself. Surprise! At the same time I announce that I have no intention of taking over the country or spreading my troops beyond the capital. I am simply looking for reasonable and fair concessions (which I will think of when the moment comes) out of a repressive government which has abused and ignored the wishes of its own people. Heck, I even demand that Washington finally concede to those regional requests that the people of, say, California and, oh let’s see, Georgia, have been beseeching it for. The Californians see that I am taking their side against their own government! Several very eloquent officials and pundits (with rather shadowy and mysterious backgrounds, if anyone bothered to check) point out the irony in adrenalin-riddled words. Alaska is offered independence if they want it, and with the world oil supply depressed their eyes blink with a “kaching” sound, and they readily agree to go their own way so as to be able to price oil at the market instead of the deep discounts that Washington has been desperately demanding for the past ten years. The rest of the world, offered hope of relief from the horrible depression of the last twenty years, takes its leadership from Europe and adopts a bold “wait and see” policy. Not that I would ever suggest that there’s any avoidance of responsibility here. There is a great deal of monitoring of this and that by the U.N. If I don’t comply with their wishes at some point, they will give me a stern admonishment. Maybe two if they’re feeling really aggressive.

Once I have the pentagon in my control, it turns out that I can’t just withdraw. Americans surely understand the need to rebuild a war-worn and occupied country! I have a responsibility to reunite this once great nation. The world demands it! Then I’ll withdraw, I swear. No, really. I mean it.

I take the remains of the U.S. military and dump funding into it to rebuild it and make it capable of subduing those regions that have been less than loyal to the central government during this crisis. See? I am acting in the best interests of America and the world. Of course, in practical terms, I am now the central government. I remind you Americans of your past greatness and point out that I am not conquering you, I am merely creating a larger republic which includes both you and my other territories. Naturally, you will be the most important and central part. And of course the combined resources of such a great nation will make us all rich again. I can hardly keep the schools from posting my portrait in every classroom.

Where did I get the money to fund the rebuilding of the army when the U.S itself is close to broke? Curiously, I moved a lot of money into gold and other non-depreciating tangibles just before a lot of the world’s currencies took a dive. It’s almost as if I knew when those tankers were going to crash and those well fires were going to break out. Just lucky I guess. Luck has dogged me my whole career as dictator.

I now have the U.S. military working for me to finish my conquest.

Does that count as a successful invasion?

Ok - here’s my scenario. ‘Successful Invasion’ has been assumed so far on this thread to mean ‘by a foriegn country/countries’. In this scenario I would say it would be unsuccessful. If New Zealand tried to invade the US we would be wiped off the map. But what if the invasion was by a movement rather than a country? Say a religion or a belief?

With the weaponry available in todays world I would be confident (with sufficient funding) of taking control of the United States with around 50 people and 10 nuclear devices. Only two of the devices would have to be smuggled into the US.

Here’s the plan: Having smuggled two devices into the interior of the US, eight yachts set sail from various locations and head towards the US, timing their arrival (via cellphones for communication) to arrive at four ports on the West and four on the East.

When the yachts are approaching land our leader (we’ll call him Bob) would be sitting comfortably with David Letterman, having purchased the opportunity to promote a new book/film/condom whatever.

As Dave finishes his “10 reasons why New Zealander’s love sheep” our leader says “Well, Dave, now’s as good a time as any to tell you that I’m really the head of the Protestant Muslim Lesbians for Whale Freedom and we are taking over the country. We have three hundred nuclear devices spread throughout the land and unless your President immediately joins us and hands over the keys to the country we will lay it to waste. Oh, and by the way, if anything nasty happens to me Iowa is gone.”

(Pregnant pause)
Dave laughs: “Well, I never really liked Iowa…”

Leader: “Ah, sorry 'bout that”…BOOM.

Leader “That was Iowa - Florida’s next.”

You get the picture? I’ve read about how all the US citizenry will rise up and rebel against the invaders but who do they attack? And here’s the big one: if you had a choice between (a) saying OK, I’ve lived under Bush and Clinton, I can live under Bob, or (b) if this damn country doesn’t capitulate my family and I are going to be propelled into the ionosphere, where would you stand?

Even if you killed the leader immediately following the Iowa conflagration, Leader number 2 (Bob II) would be standing by at CNN headquarters to point out that; Iowa and Florida having been bombed, San Francisco was next…repeat as required.

I don’t reckon you’d use up the 10 actual devices you have.

Once you had control of government you could do ANY damn thing including disarming of the military. And every bit of seapower, airpower and nuclear capability would be useless because you’d have to bomb your own country.

Hope it never happens, but I think it’s possible.