Like I wrote, it would be more like a coup d’etat if the monied elite were overthrowing the government. It supposedly almost happened once.
I don’t think a violent overthrow per se is possible, but I think there are a number of situations in which the power of the federal government could become severely undermined:
• A state or states actually seceding with popular support of the people of the state(s). I don’t think we have the will as in 1861 to put down such a rebellion with violence. Even if the military moved in, you could see a giant peaceful demonstration against the occupation.
• A situation like the Berlin Wall where people simply stop paying attention to the government and start doing what they want. This could be local or national.
• A situation like the 2000 Bush/Gore crisis, in which people take sides, and the nation is fractured.
Even in the case of the Civil War, it’s not as though a certain group of people started “fighting against the government.” Rather, there was a large-scale situation that led to violence. I think the same type of fundamentals are likely to apply to any future situation that threatens the viability of the federal government.
If ten per cent of the populace went into riot, they could do a lot of harm, but I don’t think they’d destroy the government.
But if ten per cent went into dedicated terrorism, I think they could make the country unlivable. That could pretty much collapse the economy.