It seems that way to me, and that Black is rebounding. OTOH, google news pulls up 12,000 cites. (Hard to compare to Black, because it’s used in so many other contexts.)
Michael Jackson’s been fading for years. OH! Ba-zing.
All I can relate is my personal experiences as a 24 year old white guy living in DC. Very few people in my generation use African-American, we simply use black & white.
[Venture Brothers]
“So, you only kill African-American vampires?”
“No, I kill Blackulas. They don’t have African-Americans in England.”
“Oh.”
[/Venture Brothers]
27 year old white girl in Florida. A-A seems to be falling out of favor in my crowd as well, even among some professors who occasionally think to say A-A but often use black by default. Personally, I find it really stupid to have a word that only refers to one race of people living in one country. If it’s ok to call me white, how is it offensive to call someone else black?
I’ve heard of it in newspapers and such, and have seen it on these very boards: “African American” can be very awkwardly used when the person in question isn’t, you know, American. Talking about a Jamaican or Brit or German and labeling him or her as an “African-American” (and it has happened) is definitely jarring.
Yeah, it’s PC, but it’s also very US-centric, which is arguably worse.
It seems to be alive and well in newspapers, but fading in speech.
One of “those people” checking in, here. 
I’ve never been fond of the term AA. Seems a bit pointless to me. I’ve never been offended by someone calling me black (outside of when they’re talking about my heart). And whenever I’m presented with a questionnaire asking about my ethnicity or race that gives me the choice of AA or Black, I always choose Black.
So I, for one, won’t cry if AA fades into the sunset.
I hear (well, read) African-American plenty. And why do people capitalize Black and White?
Because people suffer from A.A. Milne disease, wherein they feel the need to capitalize random Nouns.
I thought that was Emily Dickinson Syndrome.
It’s the perfect cure for e e cummings disease.
Because you capitalise nouns and adjectives that denote ethnicity. So, a “black cat” and the “black king” in chess, but Barack Obama is the first Black President of the US.
I’m afraid I’m going to need to see some form of citation for that. I’m a capital-A “American” because it’s derived from a proper noun. From what proper noun does “Black” derive?
Actually, I myself thought it was “He is a Black” and “he is a black lawyer”, because in the first instance it was a description of an ethnic group, as Giles said, and in the second it was a description of skin color.
But I looked around a bit and see that the overwhelming majority of media outlets use the lowercase b in both instances. There are exceptions, though, e.g. this black publication
NVM, Snickers beat me to it.
Not all names of ethnicities derive from proper nouns, e.g., Basque, Bedouin, Maori. But your problem really is that “black” was originally an ordinary adjective denoting a colour. I guess the point is that when you call a person “Black” you are not saying they are black in colour – most “Blacks” are various shades of brown – but that they are identified with a particular ethnic group.
This isn’t a rule followed by everyone, of course, but it is the reason why “Black” is capitalised like this.
Except “Black” isn’t an ethnicity - it’s a race. Black people split out into a variety of different backgrounds and cultures, so much so that it’s absurd to suggest they’re an ethnicity unto themselves. It’s the same reason capitalizing “White” is equally ridiculous.
FWIW I recently heard one white ‘correct’ another for not using the term AA, not sure if they were entirely serious.
Except that it isn’t a “race” in any meaningful sense of the term. Sally Hemmings (Thomas Jefferson’s concubine) would be called “Black” today, and would have been called a “Negro” or worse when she was alive, but “racially” she was 3/4 European (her father and both grandfathers were White).
I don’t know the answer to this particular question. But I will say this, in general: Basing anything on the number of Google hits is a fool’s game.
Ed