Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day?

[bordelond]

Thank you for the thorough response, DSeid. I had never actually known in detail the physiological mechanism by which viruses like influenza strains and coronaviruses could kill a person.

EDIT: Excepting cases in which a fever got out of control and ran too high. I was aware that could kill someone.

[DSeid]

You are welcome! And really the fever itself is rarely the major problem as much as it is a symptom of what is the problem, the level of inflammatory response and why it is there.

Anyone want to make their guess where the confirmed case number will top off (at least for this year) and where the retrospective analysis of true case number will land?

I’m guessing 50K for the confirmed case number with a post hoc analysis landing on nearly half a million as the true incidence.

[Mr_Quatro]

I’m more concerned over flying the possible cases of this virus from China Wuhan area to America … and now they have even decided to fly them to mid America.

I love California, but keep it that far inland … why take a chance?

The numbers continue to grow, but how you receive the virus is remains the same … Person to person on cruise ships to taxi drivers to tour bus operators.

[DSeid]

Thought this articlewas worth sharing here. We’ve alluded to this before.

… why aren’t more children getting sick?

“My strong, educated guess is that younger people are getting infected, but they get the relatively milder disease,” said Dr. Malik Peiris, chief of virology at the University of Hong Kong, who has developed a diagnostic test for the new coronavirus.

Scientists may not be seeing more infected children because “we don’t have data on the milder cases,” he said. …

… A key question about the new coronavirus is whether children who are infected and asymptomatic are able to pass the virus to others.

“We know that young people in general — not just kids, but young adults and teenagers — have the most intense contact in society,” Dr. MacIntyre said. Young people who don’t realize they are sick may contribute to the epidemic’s momentum, she said. …

[Mijin]

@DSeid

The media hype at the time was much LARGER in Western media during H1N1 than it is to 2019 nCoV. Lots about how deadly H1N1 was and horrible it could be. There were many who were literally panicked by it.

I would dispute that – all the major news sites in the UK (my country of origin) have coronavirus as not only the main story but maybe the main 2 or 3 stories, and with the hyperbole dialled to 11.
It wasn’t like that for H1N1. I don’t think many Brits would even be aware of it starting in North America, and that it was, and still is, a devastating strain. I’ll concede that it may have been that way in US media, but my main point is about how the story is being covered internationally, and how governments are responding.

The response difference in terms of travel restrictions when one was a at the time documented case fatality rate of season flu, and the other is currently still over 2%, is understandable and rational, not a “racial aspect”.

I said racial aspect in terms of the countries ignoring WHO advice and closing borders or otherwise restricting entry.
And we can add the boycotting of Asian businesses and harassment of Asians that is being reported in many countries.

[Broomstick]

@Mr_Quatro

I’m more concerned over flying the possible cases of this virus from China Wuhan area to America … and now they have even decided to fly them to mid America.

I love California, but keep it that far inland … why take a chance?

The numbers continue to grow, but how you receive the virus is remains the same … Person to person on cruise ships to taxi drivers to tour bus operators.

The people the US government transported from China to the US are on military bases where they can be kept in quarantine, which will prevent them from spreading the virus. Assuming any are infected, which won’t be known for certain for a bit longer.

They are not simply being dumped off in the middle of Iowa or something.

[steatopygia]

@DSeid

You are welcome! And really the fever itself is rarely the major problem as much as it is a symptom of what is the problem, the level of inflammatory response and why it is there.

Anyone want to make their guess where the confirmed case number will top off (at least for this year) and where the retrospective analysis of true case number will land?

I’m guessing 50K for the confirmed case number with a post hoc analysis landing on nearly half a million as the true incidence.

The confirmed number of cases is still rising by about 3000 a day in China. I think 70,000 may be closer. I won’t be surprised if the true incidence is pegged at an even million.

The fact that this is still primarily confined to China is somewhat miraculous.

Mijin, I’m not seeing the racism. I admit that I’m far from the battlefield, but I don’t see it in mainstream media.

[PastTense]

Another 66 passengers onboard a luxury cruise liner quarantined in Japan have tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the number of infected people on the ship to 136.

Japanese health officials said the new diagnoses among 3,700 passengers and crew onboard the Diamond Princess included 45 people from Japan, 11 from the US, four from Australia, three from the Philippines and one each from Canada and Ukraine…

The ministry has said the quarantine will stretch to 19 February, although the World Health Organization said late on Sunday that the period could be extended “as appropriate” for close contacts of newly confirmed cases.

Coronavirus: 66 more cases on cruise ship as 'depression sets in'

But these passengers have received some good news:

“All monies paid to Princess Cruises including your cruise fare, round trip Princess Air, pre- or post-Cruise Plus hotels, transfers, prepaid shore excursions, gratuities and other items, and taxes, fees and port expenses will be refunded to the original form of payment,” Swartz wrote.

Swartz said the company will “refund reasonable independent expenses,” along with air travel, transfers or pre/post-cruise hotels. Each guest also will receive a 100% future cruise credit equal to the fare passengers paid for the quarantined voyage, Swartz wrote.

February 9, 2020 coronavirus news

[elfkin477]

Another 66 passengers onboard a luxury cruise liner quarantined in Japan have tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the number of infected people on the ship to 136.

So, people keep turning up positive on the ship, will they really be letting people leave after 14 days? If they weren’t exposed originally, they still could well have been exposed to one of these 136 people while on the ship, right? And if they were, they could be sick and not yet showing symptoms on day 14…

[dtilque]

@elfkin477

So, people keep turning up positive on the ship, will they really be letting people leave after 14 days? If they weren’t exposed originally, they still could well have been exposed to one of these 136 people while on the ship, right? And if they were, they could be sick and not yet showing symptoms on day 14…

Every time they take someone off for being positive, the quarantine day count is reset. They’re thinking about breaking the passengers up into smaller groups (or maybe they already have) in the hopes that at least some of those groups will be able to get through the quarantine quicker.

[PastTense]

@dtilque

Every time they take someone off for being positive, the quarantine day count is reset. They’re thinking about breaking the passengers up into smaller groups (or maybe they already have) in the hopes that at least some of those groups will be able to get through the quarantine quicker.

Do you have any cites for this? I haven’t seen anything to suggest the Japanese plan to extend beyond the 14 day original quarantine.

[dtilque]

@PastTense

Do you have any cites for this? I haven’t seen anything to suggest the Japanese plan to extend beyond the 14 day original quarantine.

From NPR

The coronavirus quarantine that has kept some 3,700 people aboard the cruise ship is set to end on Feb. 19. However, for “close contacts” of infected passengers, the quarantine will be extended 14 days from the last contact with a confirmed case, according to the WHO.

I’m not sure who exactly counts as “close contacts”. They’ve been allowing them to get fresh air in groups, with the ones in inner rooms going first. Does everyone in their group count as a close contact?

[steatopygia]

It is possible the new infections have leveled off. Only 2500 yesterday.

Possible.

[bordelond]

Is there any kind of law – international law, Japanese law, etc. – that addresses the rights of those being quarantined? It seems that if worse comes to worst, some people could be spending several months on that ship.

[steatopygia]

@dtilque

From NPR

I’m not sure who exactly counts as “close contacts”. They’ve been allowing them to get fresh air in groups, with the ones in inner rooms going first. Does everyone in their group count as a close contact?

I think if they have any more positives, they are going to have to move everyone to land. On land they can have at least some isolation from each other. I’m not sure why that wasn’t done right away. Either over confidence that it wasn’t going to spread, or a lack of space.

[bordelond]

@steatopygia

I think if they have any more positives, they are going to have to move them to land. On land they can have at least some isolation from each other. I’m not sure why that wasn’t done right away. Either over confidence that it wasn’t going to spread, or a lack of space.

Seconded.

[Broomstick]

The quarantine ends 14 days after the most recent infection for the reasons you state.

It’s really tough for those on the ship, but that’s how quarantine works.

Unfortunately, with no vaccine or treatment it’s about the only thing that can really stop or at least slow this thing down.

[Magiver]

I would think they would take them off the ship and quarantine them in on land. what if the confined quarters is the incubator for more cases? Is anybody ever going to feel safe taking a cruise on on this ship?

[bordelond]

@Broomstick

The quarantine ends 14 days after the most recent infection for the reasons you state.

It’s really tough for those on the ship, but that’s how quarantine works.

Unfortunately, with no vaccine or treatment it’s about the only thing that can really stop or at least slow this thing down.

I’m curious to see if a similar cruise ship quarantine will be attempted again.

The coronavirus cruise ship quarantine of the Diamond Princess, explained - Vox

Could the quarantine lead to more coronavirus infections?

Doctors and health researchers are increasingly skeptical of this quarantine for exactly that reason. “They’ve basically trapped a bunch of people in a large container with [the] virus,” said University of Toronto epidemiology professor David Fisman, over email. “So [I’m] assuming ‘quarantine’ is generating active transmission.”

For the same reason, Michael Mina, another epidemiologist at Harvard University, called the quarantine unethical on Twitter, “The decision to keep the passengers & crew on the ship is no longer ethical and is wholly inappropriate. 10 crew are infected and crew cannot self quarantine, and room together. Clearly this has transmitted among them placing all at unacceptable risk.”

Their concern is driven by the details emerging from the ship, which paint an alarming portrait. According to a must-read New York Times report, as of February 10, Japanese officials had only tested 439 of the 3,700 passengers onboard for the coronavirus, citing shortages of testing supplies. This means that at least a fraction of the remaining thousands onboard may have the virus and not know it.

Among those who’ve tested positive recently are 10 crew members. “And according to employees, the infected crew members identified on Sunday had been eating in the mess hall alongside their co-workers,” the Times reports.

Given the risk of further spread among the crew, and to the passengers they’re trying to serve, the quarantine on the Diamond Princess increasingly seems to pose an “unacceptable risk,” as Mina said.

[TokyoBayer]

@Magiver

I would think they would take them off the ship and quarantine them in on land. what if the confined quarters is the incubator for more cases? Is anybody ever going to feel safe taking a cruise on on this ship?

Japanese people are too xenophobic for that to happen. To be somewhat fair to them, I think the reverse would also occur. If a cruise ship of mostly Chinese tourists were docked in LA, I don’t think the US would quarantine them on land, either. Many of these decisions are made for political rather than reasons.