Is Arab League Opposition To War Really About Sunni Arab Control of World Oil?

Doesn’t it make a stronger OPEC when more member nations share more in common?

We know that Middle Eastern societies, in general, are WAY clannish.

We know there’s a mutual animosity between Sunnis and Shias; many Shias aren’t even Arab; thus, taking out Saddam, a nominally Sunni Arab introduces a high risk that the oil will be controlled at some future point by either one person or a group of people not as easily subjugated to Sunni Arab community will.

This has the effect of introducing a greater degree of instability in the world production and price of oil.

Sunnis and Shias are not monolithic entities. Religious life in Saudi Arabia and Iraq are very different for Sunnis and for society in general. Heck, even Shia society in Iran and Iraq are very different (well, not very different, but you get my point). It really is more of a national Arab thing responding to perceived neo-colonialism by the US than a worry about which Islamic faction is going to control the oil.

Think about how many different Christian sects there are. Even if you want to break it down into Protestant, Orthodox and Catholic, you still have all sorts of Protestant sects with different traditions, different interpretations, different moral codes. Same thing with Islam.

Arab League opposition may be simply due to fear of greater instability of their own positions caused by the war than by the status quo. If there’s anything people in power, and wanting to stay in power, hate, it’s instability.