Based on what, you are asking me. Two things:
- Common sense.
- Japan’s example. It’s working age population peaked in 1995. Overall population peaked 5 years back.
Check out the GDP growth rates from 1990s
Now check debt to GDP ratio:
60% in the 90s and 230% today. Please click on ‘max’ on both the charts.
Japan had strong exports all the while since the world was growing in population unlike Japan: Japan Exports
Even then the domestic economy is in such a mess.