As shown here, the GOP controls most of the state legislatures, making major inroads in 8 states just in the 2014 election. Vox’s Lee Drutmanand Matt Iglesias warn that right-wing ascendancy in America is increasing. The Obama administration may be the last Democratic America for decades!
The Obama administration may be the last Democratic America for decades! If a Democrat wins in 2016, we can hope for American progressivism (though I wouldn’t count on it). But if the GOP takes the White House they will be so dominant that America will plunge downhill. The coming election is extremely important and extremely close.
Even assuming the Democrats have a 50% chance seems over-optimistic to me. Instead I see complacency, a certitude that the GOP will implode around a clown and Hillary will waltz to victory. Will this delusion last until, on Election Night 2016 Democrats wander around stunned like Karl Rove did when Romney lost?
Wake up, Democratic Party leaders. You need to refocus your national efforts on taking state legislatures and governorships. Every election, Dem resources from blue states have got to be poured into campaigns in red states.
On the other hand, a lot of the Republican dominance at the state and local level is due to gerrymandering, and states are increasingly putting into place anti-gerrymandering measures via popular referendum.
I don’t know that I’d call it a delusion; that narrative is pretty powerful, and to some degree, the idea that Hillary will squash whatever knucklehead the GOP offers up, is already sort of being treated as a fait accompli in the media, if only because you have this dozen-ring circus on the GOP side,and the Democrats have a 2 person race, and one’s clearly going to be the candidate of choice. It makes her look like her shit’s together far more than anyone else- it’s literally a year early, and she’s pretty much THE front runner for the election, not just for the Democratic party.
You can’t really discount that sort of public image this early. Not only does a GOP candiate have to defeat the other GOP candidates, but he’s essentially viewed as a challenger to Hillary, not a rival. In other words, (IMO) she gains some of the cachet of incumbency without actually being an incumbent.
The view also has recent electoral history on its side. In 2008 a vibrant primary contest that continued after the GOP had settled on John McCain kept eventual Democratic nominee in the headlines (positively) and helped focus people on the health care reform agenda that was eventually passed. The Republicans sought to recreate that for themselves in 2012 and should have been careful what they wished for. Democratic primary campaigns are like general election campaigns in that they have to reach out to diverse groups and not just try to corner the market on hardcore conservative whites. This time around he GOP has tried to limit the exposure of their candidates but they still have to say something if they want to move up in the polls and that creates baggage to carry into the general election. We should expect Hillary Clinton, or Bernie Sanders for that matter, to have an advantage over a damaged Republican nominee.
Not that this justifies the complacency at the state level in any way.
The FN’s probably no more racist than your average Tea Party Congressman while the DPP is actually descended from the Danish anti-Nazi resistance in World War 2 and preferable to most other Danish right-wing parties not to mention our Republicans.
Essentially the nature of the Democratic and Republican voting bases means that the former has a slight advantage in purely national contests and at a disadvantage at the state and Congressional district level.
Where? I need some good news.
The problem is that Democrats want districts drawn fairly, while Republicans want districts drawn so they can stay in power long after the demographics are against them.
The Democrats have to turn their hopes towards those people with most enthusiastic skill at exposing the stupidity of reactionary policies. No group excels in that regard more than the Republican Party.
The Troglodyte Right has craved power for years, now, they have it. And they will misuse it, because that is what they do. And we have the better part of a year for that to make itself manifest, for people to react to its effects on their lives.
Who could imagine that they would freak out in Kansas? Just because the Trogs seized control to the extent that they could actually rule the state? What could possibly go wrong with Sam Brownback, the alpha lemming, leading? Well, everything, or near to it.
Its a damnable shame that the suffering will fall on those least empowered to defend themselves. But there is no more effective demonstration of the poverty of reactionary policy. And they’ve got the better part of another year to fuck things up beyond all recognition. Bless their hearts.
Actually, it is descended from Mogens Glistrup and Fremskridtspartiet.
Mr. Glistrup was in no way involved in the anti-Nazi resistance during WWII, and his libertarian-ish ideas were supposedly formed during his studies at Berkeley in 1951 and '52.
Now, naturally, both Mr. Glistrup and the leadership of the DPP regularly payed / pay homage to the anti-Nazi resistance, but then so do Danish politicians of all stripes.
That was an interesting read. I still think demographic trends will move things leftward (assuming singles, millennials, the disadvantaged and non-whites maintain their voting biases), but I’m surprised the GOP did so well in 2014.
If you’ve familiar with Dem oriented media then I’d think it’s fair to say it’s not a complete echo chamber or bubble since these issues come up a lot but there’s a significant portion (including here) who are fairly delusional. Just like fusion, the demographic collapse of the GOP is always 20 years away. A decent amount of liberals really believe a progressive heart beats at the center of the American body politic.
Even among the cynics there’s an endless amount of excuse making for why the party is tied to the coasts and barely exists outside of large cities.
Gerrymandering
Stupid voters going against their self interest, the “What’s the matter with Kansas” belief.
Lazy young/poor/minorities not voting. It’s taken for granted they’d vote Dem, of course.
Big corporate money. Because Dems don’t do that.
Biased media.
Blaming national Dem party apparatus for collapse of local organization.
Reading the comment sections of some Dem blogs lately, it’s dawning on them that President Trump or Carson could happen. Like they don’t remember Bush winning twice (watch the excuses for that one roll in).
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