I live in a city with a population of about 69,000, according to the 2000 census. The other day my friend and I were at a motorcycle shop looking at bikes (we are both considering buying) and asking various questions to the salesman, etc. As we walked out, I casually asked, “how many motorcycles do you sell every year?”
He seemed thrown by the question. I repeated it and said I was wondering because I didn’t see THAT many motorcycles on the streets, even on nice days. He said, “about 80 a month.”
As soon as we left the shop my friend turned to me and said he thought that was bullshit, that the guy was lying to us, trying to inflate the statistics, and figured that we were two typical college guys who thought we would be hot shit on bikes and that we would fall for it. I agreed, saying that if they sold 80 bikes a month, they would be everywhere, on streets, in driveways, all over the place.
Upon later analysis, I figured that the salesman was including dirt bikes in the “80 a month” count (which I had failed to consider initially.) There are many rural people here that buy dirt bikes both for their own use and as presents for their kids. But even with the dirt bikes included, I find the salesman’s numbers sort of hard to believe.
The best way to arrive at this answer is to use a deduction system used in some interviews. You guess at reasonable numbers and ignore picky points to arrive at a ballpark answer.
Again, these are reasonable guesses as a test of validity:
That would be:
80 motorcycles a month = 960 motorcycles a year
The average motorcycle lasts 10 years so that is 9600 motorcycles
That would mean that 1 in 7 people including kids and the elderly have bought one from them in the last 10 years.
That seems too high.
The only factor that would make it reasonable is if they serve a larger area than just your city.
You’re assuming people only own one bike. It’s not uncommon for a rider to own several. In the circle of riders I know, I’d say 2-3 is more typical. Also, certain types of bikes are subject to fashion and have a high turnover as owners upgrade to the latest and greatest every couple of years. Nothing wrong with their old bike, just the new model is 10 lbs. lighter and has 3 hp more.
That, IMHO, probably accounts for a lot, bike dealerships really are fairly few in number and scattered. I had to go almost an hour away to get my bike because nobody closer had that particular model in stock, and it’s only a Suzuki. If this dealer sells any “specialty” or smaller marquees (Ducati, Triumph, KTM, whatever…), then their territorial range can go way up. Plus if dirt bikes and scooters count, then I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s about right.