With articles like the above coming out, one wonders how certain it is that Kerry will win the nomination. I’m sure that if something really extreme were to happen, e.g. major series of big scandals involving likely jail time, major car accident leaving him brain damaged, there would be a way for the powers that be to undercut his winning the primaries.
But what about a continuation of bad news and interviews by Kerry along with a drop in the polls to sub-McGovern levels?
This is not meant to be a discussion of the relative merits of Kerry vs. Bush or Kerry vs. Nader. I’m just wondering about how the political parties operate.
The delegates in the states won by Kerry are sworn to vote for him at the convention. Of course this doesn’t make it physically impossible for them to vote for someone else. But they won’t do so. At least not for political reasons. If Kerry dies, or gets arrested, or if he tells them to nominate someone else, then someone else could still get the nomination. Other than that, Kerry will be nominated.
Many candidates polling far worse than Kerry have gotten the nomination in the past; there is no reason why a party would dump a candidate who was neck-and-neck with the incumbent. And the Village Voice, as I already mentioned in the GD thread, is far to the left of the Democratic Party and seems to be sporting mostly Nader supporters this year. The Democrats are unlikely to care what they think.