Actually it is pretty clear that you don’t agree with me. In fact it is pretty clear you did not understand the point I was making, either via the World Bank data, or my anecdote, which illustrated the emptiness of your facile claims regarding roads and concessionary services “exploiting” Africans.
It is not that it is hard to do business in Africa, rather it is why it is hard to do business. And the why is not the simplistic Leftist mythologies you’re selling here, it is indigenous bad government that is bad for indigenous reasons, not because of The West. Nor because Western firms like such situations, as you wrote “* since from a purely economic Western perspective, things really aren’t going to bad, give or take a Nigerian oil rebel or two.* – in fact quite the opposite, from the Western economic perspective as demonstrated by actual business people doing actual investment.
A rational conversation requires people make rational, fact and in particular data based arguments, not repeat empty Leftist mythologies.
To make money, that is why ANYONE runs a business, as opposed to screwing around with an NGO or some such.
Now, as I noted you have trouble with basic maths, perhaps the idea of profit and return escapes, but in business we do like, after all costs up, to have positive numbers in the income statement and balance sheet. Otherwise the Big Meanies come round to take away the business.
So the fuck what?
Well, evidently the people involved in resource extraction and farming, etc.
That would be fairly self-evident.
Leaving aside your gross exaggeration and distortion, this is the case in corrupt, badly run countries which make private business difficult to impossible to establish and run over time. Reinvestment requires the right environment, otherwise, no one in the right mind is going to plop down millions in a factory that is going to get taken away or sucked to death by corrupt parasites.
And that’s an Indigenous Problem.
No one is forcing the Biya clan to be corrupt. Nor the multitudes of second and third tier parasites.
More simplistic Leftist emo smokescreen instead of rational analysis.
The people who work there get proper jobs and resource extraction in a country which promotes a positive climate for business and reinvestment is a fine basis upon which to build an economy.
South Africa, Botswana, Australia, Indonesia, etc have all, with a modicum of good governance built economies off of a resource extraction backbone.
The problem is not resource extraction, the problem is bad government. And
“Less Harmful” industry rot aside, this is not a question, it’s That is not a question, it’s dreamy eyed nonsense.”
There is no question from a business point of view about mystically becoming all flowers and puppies, and certainly not relative to African problems. It is simply installing good governance to allow entrepreneurs to flourish without the dead hand of the state killing off enterprise in favour of parasitic bureaucrats that provide no value to society.
Transformation Feel Good Dreamy projects are irrelevant to this as pot induced business plans.
Your opinion is worth as much as your “analysis.”
“Western Governments” - outside of the Hard Left Anti Capitalist Myth World – have been trying to promote for the past twenty years better governance in Africa, and reward moves, like Ghana’s, with advantageous investment and trade policies. Your opinion lacks any basis in data and observable fact.
(Never mind how absurd it is to cite a Lebanese government connection; so Leb merchants bang around West Africa… big deal, non-investment is due to the bad environment for it, not Leb sins, since the same folks set up firms in other geographies, e.g. Brazil).
Yeah, I give your claim the same credence as your other claims. None.
Now, as to your other random anecdotes in search of an argument:
Bad incidents happen all over the place. What this is supposed to prove escapes me. Anecdotes about dumping… The Dutch went after it, a bad actor does not Western policy make.
It is indeed Russia. Russia's Arms Sales to Sudan a First Step in Return to Africa: Part One - Jamestown China as well, but so the fuck what? What pray tell does this prove about the West or Africa? Or are we extending the whole Western Leftist Western White Guilt thing to be second hand guilty about things the Chinese and Russians do, for them, since they don’t display the proper level of empty self flagellation and hand wringing.
OK, well, I’m done debating with you. You are more interested in shouting “Lefty!” at me than having a reasoned argument. If you stopped trying to pigeonhole me, I think you’d find that our analysis of the situation are not actually that different. We both agree on the main problem. We simply disagree on if Western interests play a supporting role- which could be an interesting place to have a reasoned fact-based debate. And of course we have different views of a business’s obligations towards the communities that they operate in, which honestly is not really even a part of the debate.
I’m not really sure where you are getting all this energy for name calling from. This is a subject I am very interested in and I’ll admit right out that I am no kind of expert, though I think I have more experience than the average American. If you have some good information to contribute, I really would read it and take it into consideration. I’d like to learn all that I can about this subject, and I am certainly interested in other people’s analysis of the issues. But really you’ve kind of ruined this thread for me by going straight to the name-calling.
Excellent post. I think its clear that Africa will never advance, with this kind of corruption. It also explains why the Chinese operate in Africa (the way they do): set up resource extraction enterprises (mines,farms, dams), and import the labor and materials from China.So Africa loses both ways-they get “paid” for their resources in imported goods-made in China! I was told (by a Kenyan), that the locally-produced “Tusker” beer mas more expensive to produce (in Kenya), than to import beer from Europe! Presumably, a LOT of bribes are paid by the poor brewery. Not having a local manufacturing infrastructure also means there are no jobs for the local university graduates-who leave for Europe or the USA. Ironically, it was the racist regime (in SA) which actually was able to set up an industrial economy, while all the central planners in Kenya, Tanzana, etc., could not.
A Correction: what the Doing Business Index measures is not ** corruption**, it measures what it takes legally to get things done, in short the stifling bureaucracy. It assumes, so as to achieve comparability, that every measure is undertaken without bribes and done correctly. It presents something of a view of the kind of “service” that African governments offer to their population, including their businesses and entrepreneurs. There is a measure by World Economic Forum of corruption, but WEF’s data site is not very user friendly.
On top of the expenses and time (or oft in substitute for the formal fees), you add corruption. Which can shorten the time, but adds on uncertainty. And illegality.
But every one of those procedures, which serve no genuine public purpose, or requirements (like the ridiculous minimum capital) serve as opportunities for the kleptocrats to extract rents – bribes – to either get around them, or as often merely allow you the privilege of complying with nonsensical rules and regulations.
Thus, in Africa, SSA in particular, the phrase The Dead Hand of the State is fully merited by government. Even regulation with a real point and theoretical utility is corruptly applied in too many countries
However, some countries are genuinely reforming and they are thus attracting real investment in growth. Which is living refutation of the absurd hard Left nonsense Sven is pushing about “the West.”
No, it seems to me from what I can see that the Chinese operate that way because they prefer it. They essentially try the same model everywhere, that’s not particular to Africa. They’ve been getting away with it more in Africa (and it is more visible due to obvious racial/ethnic differences) due to corruption. Also I find it hard to credit that the Chinese firms are fully costing out their import of labour etc. There is an aspect of that which makes little sense in many economies where labour skills are decent and not expensive. But the Chinese still try to import Chinese…. There’s something funny there.
Certain African countries, it’s not all the same throughout SSA. The ones that are addressing the kinds of Dead Hand regulation, easing business, are seeing growth.
Bribes, bad regulations, poor transport infrastructure, chaotic supply chains with too much reliance on one-man outfits, and oft just bad management practice even given the resources available. That’s why so frequently the multinational firm (ones experienced in emerging markets) can come in and even produce in country at lower cost than locals.
Better management, and international firms can oft attract better people even when the salaries are not higher, because of the well-deserved reputation of being better run, minimally corrupt internally, and generally better managed for a better employee experience. Some of this is due to deeper resources and better access to capital, but not all, by a long English mile.
Quite so. Job creation is low, and because the system strangles off entrepreneurship, even leaving aside corruption and bribes, which of course are significant, there are not even local innovations that one would normally expect to come up to deal with the poor infrastructure. Poor infrastructure is deadly, but can be overcome. Poor infrastructure, massive over-regulation that is corruptly applied and you get … Sub Saharan Africa in the aggregate.
Well, not ironically. Apartheid RSA had, for the longest time, excellent access to capital, and of course a well-trained (if nastily racist) managerial class. And a proper free market.
The Socialist Experiments in Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Guineau, etc. were universally the worst failures possible.
And it should be kept in mind that RSA deliberately under Apartheid created 3rd world circumstances for the Black community, a non-necessary fact that prevented the transfer of knowledge and skills to the Black African community. Deliberately. Before Apartheid, black entrepreneurs were in fact coming up and challenging white dominance (economically speaking). That makes Apartheid even greater a sin, since if it had not happened, had rather RSA taken another path and started to integrate blacks that were coming up from the 1920s forward, RSA would have likely been a brilliant example to all of Africa, instead of a somewhat tarnished one.
Nevertheless, it does show that off of a resource extraction economy, if one re-invests the profits in wider infrastructure and keeps corruption (White RSA certainly had and has corruption) to a minimum instead of making excuses for it, you can build something.
No, I am more interested in correcting your gross distortions of fact, taken directly from the Hard Left’s mythologies and anti-business and anti-West spin, stringing together in a hand waving fashion unconnected factoids into a myth-narrative against capitalism, etc. There can be no “reasoned” argument when your argument is based not on data, but on fuzzily connected factoids sloppily woven together to create mythical narrative.
Let’s review, shall we?
So far, you began by claiming
• “Most of Africa’s worst leaders were and are installed and supported by European nations
I pointed out the falsity of this blanket claim, which is typical from the hard Left. The leaders who generated the worst performances, the Presidents of Guineau, Ghana, Tanzania, etc. who went the African Socialist route kicking out the west generated among the worst performances for their countries – and the West had no hand in them. Moderates like Houphet Boigny, Bongo etc weren’t wonders, but hardly can be reasonably placed among the worst.
• “Many Africa countries allow foreign interests to run even basic infrastructure- like electricity and roads.”
This loosey goosey observation, which implies that the idea of concessionary management is bad (confirmed by your vague anecdotes about Cameroun), I rebutted by noting that state provided infrastructure services in Africa where no foreign concessions are operating beat world records for badness, and that generally concessions are invited in to improve management, etc. Your simplistic pointing the finger at the concessionary is the typical Left reaction of blame the private firm rather than looking at likely causes.
• These foreign [concessionary] companies happily skim off the top just like everyone else.
I responded to this by illustrating what doing business as an honest concession or development manager is like The broad brush assertion that companies are “happy” about the state of affaires is unwarranted. Of course at the same time, the axiom, “bad money drives out good” holds, insofar as the domestic corruption in Africa makes it difficult for honest operators to run a proper company in many African countries (not all, but many, even most SSA), such that one gets on over-selection of fringe operators of loose ethics. But that is not Corporate Sector nor the West, that is Africa driving away Good Money and Business.
• Look at a map of Africa’s trade routes one day- all those resources are flowing right out.
The typical Hard Left fuzzy claim on trade, as if external trade was a bad thing. All the trade routes flowing out…. Of course one can also observe that it is the African governments themselves that render intra-African trade impossible due to customs barriers (never mind the massive corruption at borders, and insane number of times one hits checkpoints of soldiers, gendarmes and police along routes, each extracting money and wasting valuable driver and cargo time). Those barriers and that kind of corruption are purely domestic – the West has fuck all to do with it, nor is it the type of thing limited to “cronies” at the top, it is the common folk.
I’ll skip over the arms thing since it makes no sense as an argument in any direction.
You vaguely allow that the corrupt leaders and undefined cronies are “equally to blame” and assert that it sucks because of profiteering.
• “Anyway, of course the corrupt leaders and their cronies are equally to blame. But don’t think for one moment Africa sucks because “those black people just can’t stop killing each other.” Africa sucks because everyone on this planet besides the normal African people are having a grand old time profiting off their backs, and then blaming them when stuff goes to hell.”
Again, I rebutted this assertion in noting that to the extent such fuzziness can be analyzed, we see pretty clearly that petty corruption and bad intra-African (or say intra-Kenyan) behaviour drives the crappiness, not foreigners exploiting the country. Quite the contrary, it’s intra-African bad habits. Africans deserve a great degree of responsibility for their own condition, not The West.
Now, I will reiterate that in my view the old colonial powers bear no small responsibility for setting up the bad initial conditions – that is the colonial state’s often incoherent borders throwing together ethnicities that never previously had an indigenous history together – and it seems to me where borders by accident corresponded to pre-colonial “zones” like Senegal and Mali, you got more stability due to an indigenous history together.
And equally I will highlight that the Colonial powers, including the British Empire, shamefully under-invested in the colonies up until the 1950s, and that investment was oft driven by a realisation “something had to be done.”
I’ll even grant that the 1960s-1970s cold war mucking about has a role.
However, I already highlighted that countries that kicked out the West and did their own thing actually generally did worse than those where the West remained involved (Guineau is the stand out example that comes to mind, Tanzania also comes to mind).
So claiming that The West is the cause of the corrupt dictators and their habits is falsified right there.
You continued with statements like this:
• Don’t think for a moment western interests would lift a single finger to make life better for the average people living in these countries.
Which come right out of the Hard Left and its knee jerk anti Western anti Capitalism fairy tales. Painting the West with a broad brush and ignoring investment going into reformers, and in investment efforts trying to promote good behaviour DESPITE native corruption is the typical Hard Left Anti West propaganda game. CDC tries to invest significant sums in properly run companies in Africa – going where private investors won’t. And you claim you’re misrepresented?
Or your own summary, which is a virtual laundry list of Hard Left anti West propaganda points:
You claim that current conditions serve Western interests, and strongly imply that somehow the “West” drives these conditions. You conflate in your examples individual actors (a dumping incident) with a West that is behind this, rather than the obvious, that Bad Money and Behaviour drive out Good.
Your claim that from “purely economic Western perspective, things really aren’t going to bad” represents the worst and most risible form of Hard Left anti Western propaganda, as any investor survey, or survey of business perception of Africa reports that Africa is viewed as a terrible place to do business with and in, and further, one can see – via numbers, actual data, not hand waving anecdote that business money, FDI flows to where corruption is least, where the legal system appears most fair.
In short, your points rely on grotesque distortions of fact based solely on Hard Left anti Western propaganda. Your claim that African leaders serve Western companies is risible.
Pigeon hole?!?!
Every one of your supposed arguments and factiods come straight from the Anti Western Hard Left, “Alternative Development” crowd, and are at best partial truths if not absolute caricatures of reality.
Our analyses could not be more different.
From my review above, it is very evident we do NOT agree on the main problem.
Unless you have some data based analysis, there is no scope for a fact-based debate. Factoids based on distorted anecdote and shoddy thinking by fuzzy connections is not fact.
A few years ago the East African coastal highway which serves all of the nations in the region so that they can use the Mombassa port,was given a very large grant by the world bank to rebuild it.
Result ?
No work of any kind carried on what was now virtually a dirt road and ALL of the money had disappeared and nobody knew where it had gone.
So the World Bank coughed up yet more money and hired a Japanese company to do the work.
So what happens?
We get naive first world liberals throwing up their hands in horror at yet another example of the West lining its own pockets by awarding contracts to first world firms at the expense of the poor little saintly Africans in whoms mouths butter would’t melt.
(The road was built by the Brits,originally metalled but allowed by the locals to deteirorate so badly that overturned trucks can be seen every few miles or so)
It seems to be that everything that is bad in Africa is somehow the fault of the wicked Westerners.
Genocide?
Obviously the fault of the European nation that left the country half a century ago.
Yep its nothing to do with the people who actually live there,its obviously all down to White people living and working thousands of miles away.
In some nebulous way it all benefits the West in much the same way as the Jews/Illuminati/FreeMasons/Extra Terrestials are secretly running the world.
Noones explained to me just exactly how all this repression and blood letting in Africa is benefiting the greedy International Corporations.
I must admit that I always thought that stability was good for business not tribalistic anarchy.
All obviously the fault of Western nations.
No doubt the fact that mant African men refuse to use condoms because its"Unmanly" and carry on having sexual partners while knowing that they’re H.I.V. positive is also some how the fault of Western nations.
Makes you wonder why the evil Westerners have given tens of billions of dollars worth of aid,sent educators and plant to Africa inspite of the Africans not improving their situation one iota.
Its time for Africans and First World apologists for Africans to grow up and admit that they themselves are responsible for their own actions,not some mythical Boogie Man.
This was never the theory. The theory was, as has already been said “We want your resources, and because we are stronger, we will take them”. In fact, a lot of intertribal rivalry was activly encouraged by the colonial powers, following the ancient Roman recipe of “Divide et impera” (divide and rule). Look at South Africa for an example.
That borders were drawn along artifical lines like latitudes, including scores of tribes with different history, delayed the development of a national feeling, and encouraged the clan thinking, where the politician in power hands out posts and money to people of his family, clan, tribe, and disregards the rest, that plagues todays African nations.
And this practice of encouraging corruption is one of several reasons why African countries have such a hard time reaching a better level.
People are responsible but their own behavior, but it’s absurd to pretend that history has no effect on the present. And that’s pretty much what your post does. A couple of European countries got rich off Africa for a long time. The effects of that did not magically go away when Britain and France and Spain and Belgium pulled up stakes and went home.
With the exception of the fact that colonialism really happened, and the Jewish/Illuminati/Freemason/alian conspiracies don’t exist. Other than that they’re quite similar, I agree.
First, I believe that Lust4Life is giving a sensationalist rendition of the Kenyan Urban Transport Infrastructure Project (although the rendition has all the airs of a Just So Story received 2nd or 3rd hand).
I would invite Lust4Life to substantiate what appear to me to be gross exaggerations with respect to the World Bank financed project (insofar as I can try to guess out what he or she is actually referring to. I can attest having done business in Kenya that while Kenya highways leave much to be desired in terms of both safety and repair, “virtual dirt road” for its highways (as limited as they are) is a gross exaggeration and has a faintly racist odour.
That is not to make any naive claims as to lack of corruption on the part of Kenyan or Tanzania governments.
Your genocide reference is to Rwanda and Burundi, and the Belgians. Well, as I noted in my critiques of Sven’s posts, the colonial powers do bear substantial responsibility for laying the basis of such things.
The Belgians had a particularly disgusting colonial occupation that deliberately laid the basis of ethnic hatred. There is no question about that. So yes, they shoulder some of the blame for that.
There are African countries reforming and improving conditions, more than one iota and this vaguely racist dismissal is utterly unneeded. Indeed this kind of tripe is what gives the excuse-makers no small degree of justification.
I differ from Marley’s comment only in noting that I don’t believe the colonial powers as nations got particularly rich off of Africa as such, although certain parts of the colonial lobbies certainly did (adding in a way insult to injury all around).
As to my description of the E.African highway being a virtual dirt road my opinion wasn’t based on a Google or three,or what someone told me in a pub,or what I read somewhere,or what someone said on T.V. but from actually SEEING the road and TRAVELLING on it not what someone with a hidden agenda has put on Wiki.
The road was as I said in my earlier post originally a metalled road which over the years had its holes repaired with impacted earth which annually was washed out in the rainy season and subsequently replaced afterwards.
As I am sure you are well aware once the surface of a road has been holed and not properly mended the rest of the surface disintergrates at an accelerated rate.
As I also said in my previous post every couple of miles we came across overturned trucks with their crews sitting on the sides of the cabs waiting I imagine for a winch to right their vehicles.
Thats how bad the road was.
Also when I was there,can’t remember the year but it was the Kenyan election year before the last one(No doubt you can Google it if you’re curious,I cant be bothered as I was actually there,not reading about it ) it was just after the rains and one hell of a lot of the road network in the areas I travelled in had been washed away as they were DIRT roads.
But of course your having done business in Kenya you already know that yourself.
I’m only surprised that you were unaware of the World Bank rip off,still in that country its sometimes healthier to follow the philosophy of the three wise monkeys.
So not only was my statement NOT a gross exaggeration or as you bizzarley put it “Faintly Racist” it was an actual statement of the facts.
For all I know since then Kenya may well have metalled some more of its roads,courtesy of the World Bank but I would not be stunned with amazement if they haven’t.
Or maybe of course ;they’ve carried out civil engineering works in the areas you happened to visit.
But lets not have me spoil a debate with actual facts and first hand experiences if its going to piss on the fire eh?
Apologies for double posting but as there seems to be some sort of delay from wmfellows responding to my post, no doubt you’re preoccupied with some sort of serious business or something.
Or who knows catching up on your reading/googling?
But could you actually give me some examples of these African countries that are reforming and improving conditions?
Prefererbly somewhere you’ve actually visited yourself, you having been there and everything.
Would it be Somalia or Ethiopia ?
No,no,of course not.
Nigeria,Uganda or Kenya maybe?
No can’t be them…
Rwanda,Zimbabwe?
How about Angola?
Central African Republic…
Chad?
Democratic Republic of the Congo ?
Oh dear we’re not doing very well here are we?
I must have my,as you put it "racist"head on not to know about all of these countries where things are getting so much better.
So I’ll just have to defer to your knowledge of Africa that is so obviously so much more superior then mine or probably anyones.
What was it you said and I quote you…
“Indeed this kind of tripe is what gives the excuse makers no small degree of justification”,end of your quote.
Yes someone has indeed been posting total and utter tripe in this thread,totally agree with you on that one wmfellows.
Hope its not too long before you can spare your valuable time to actually answer my questions.
Perhaps you’re on another of your "visits"to Africa,who knows.
Well, I have five seconds of time and google lets see how I do at this task.
No you ask for a little too much…
Somalia has no functioning central government. Ethiopia does.
"Ethiopia’s real GDP growth remained strong in 2007/08 at 11.6 per cent, marginally up from 11.5 per cent in 2006/07. This rapid growth was driven mainly by the agriculture and services sectors supported by strong growth of exports and sustained inflows of official development assistance and foreign direct investment. Growth is expected to slow down but remain strong in 2008/09, at 6.5 per cent, owing to a good harvest and sustained high public investment in infrastructure. The expected slowdown in 2008/09 is due to the impact of the global recession on non-traditional exports and slower growth in domestic demand as a result of tighter fiscal and monetary policies.
Despite strong growth overall in 2007/2008, drought, rising food prices and localised crop failures have exacerbated the food security crisis in Ethiopia. In addition to food security problems, the impact of the global economic crisis is expected to lower the demand for its exports and reduce remittances. Foreign direct investment and receipts from tourism are also expected to decline. The government faces the challenge of inflation – it has surged to double digit levels – and difficulty in financing widening fiscal and current account deficits."
"OVER THE PAST YEAR, NIGERIA’S POLITICAL and economic situation has been precarious largely due to the collapse of oil prices in the second half of 2008 and the near-meltdown of the domestic financial system because of the global financial crisis.Throughout 2008, the political climate was marred by ethnic and political violence, particularly in the oil-producingNigerDelta region. The Supreme Court ruled that presidential elections in 2007 were flawed althoughUmaru Yar’Adua did take office later that year.
The Nigerian government has taken measures to improve growth and macroeconomic stability. In 2008 it developed a Medium-Term Sector Strategy (MTSS) for growth to cover the period 2009-2011. Since 2006, the MTSS has helped prepare the national budget, by outlining the federal government’smediumtermgoals and objectives to state-run institutions. The government has also prioritised improving seven key sectors including agriculture, employment, transportation and education. In order to do this Nigeria has had to improve its economic diversification although its oil-reliant economy is poor Improving the supply of electric power remains themost pressing challenge.
Plummeting oil prices in the second half of the year and ongoing unrest in the Niger Delta reduced oil production. The non-oil sector’s strong performance in 2008 led to overall growth of 6.1 per cent in 2008, despite a decline in oil output.
The naira (NGN) fell sharply towards the end of the year and a huge draw down of external reserves occurred. Over the next year the government budget and the current account balance are expected to shift from large surpluses to deficits. This could threaten financial stability and the fight against corruption. The crisis in the Nigerian financial system is due to the world economic problem, the country’s excessive dependence on oil, a frail domestic financial system, and deficient regulatory oversight." Uganda
“The Ugandan economy grew an impressive 7 per cent in 2008 despite the turmoil in the world economy and regional instability. Growth has been led by the service and industrial sectors, while agriculture has stagnated.Numerous challenges include post-election violence in Kenya at the beginning of 2008, which disrupted the crucial trade link with Mombasa port, the depletion of fish stocks in Lake Victoria, soaring oil prices in the first half of the year and most recently the worsening global slump. The global downturn threatens the Ugandan financial system, dampens demand for exports and reduces remittances from abroad. As a consequence of these shocks, growth is expected to slow to 5.6 per cent in 2009 before recovering to 6.1 per cent in 2010.High fuel and food prices pushed inflation up to an estimated 12 per cent in 2008. The government is pressing ahead with a fiveyear National Development Plan (NDP) focusing on infrastructure and agricultural development in a bid to increase exports and remove constraints to further growth. Uganda continues to be a leader in social progress in Africa with poverty reduction and improvements in health and education but much remains to be done.” Kenya
"N 2008 GDP GROWTH IS ESTIMATED to have slowed to 2.6 per cent. The forecast is for higher growth rates of 5.0 per cent and 4.3 per cent in 2009-10, respectively. The slowdown in 2008 was partly due to the post-election violence that affected almost all sectors of the economy during the first quarter. The economy rebounded in the second and third quarters but slowed down during the last quarter partly as a result of the global financial crisis. The sectors that recorded positive growth included manufacturing, electricity and water, wholesale and retail trade; and fishing picked up during the second quarter of 2008, leading the recovery. In addition, construction, mining and quarrying, and public administration grew faster during the last half of 2008. Sustained growth in construction has been underpinned by long-term construction activities like roads and extension of the Jomo Kenyatta International airport, while mining and quarrying have benefited from the resulting demand for construction material.
The global slowdown will continue to affect Kenya’s economic performance during 2009 leaving the country vulnerable to large current account deficits, high debt levels, increasing fiscal deficits and declining foreign exchange reserves. The sectors which might be affected include: commercial agriculture, such as tea, coffee and horticulture, due to a reduction in foreign demand for these products; manufacturing, especially in the export processing zone (EPZ) dependent on demand in the US and European markets; and tourism. Remittances, especially those intended to finance investment, may also be hit by a protracted recession in these industrial countries.
In 2008, Kenya, as in the rest of the world experienced an unprecedented rise in food and oil prices following smaller increases in 2007. High food prices were exacerbated by shortages resulting from the post-election violence and drought-related production shortfalls. Since oil prices were liberalized some years ago, the increases in world oil prices were completely passed through to consumers. This, in turn, resulted in higher costs for electricity and transportation, raising costs in the manufacturing sector, adding to inflationary pressures. However, even after oil prices began falling in the last half of 2008, retail prices remained high, prompting the government to reduce tax on electricity during the last quarter of 2008. For the year as a whole, inflation surged to 25.8 per cent in 2008 compared 9.8 per cent in 2007. Consequently, the Government intends to control oil prices during 2009, under the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC). Aided by falling import prices and a normalization of food supply and transport, inflation is projected to ease to 9.1 per cent in 2009 and 6.8 per cent in 2010."
"GDP GROWTH IN 2008 WAS ESTIMATED at slightly above 8.5 per cent, significantly higher than the average rate of 7.5 per cent registered during the 2005-07 period. The higher than expected growth in 2008 was largely a result of good climatic conditions that impacted favourably on agricultural production. In 2009, the economy is forecast to register lower growth of about 6.6 per cent. The lower growth forecast is a result of a combination of factors, including among others, a fall in exports, reduced government expenditures and a slowdown in agricultural growth. The weakening of economic growth is projected to extend into 2010, when the economy is expected to grow by 5.7 per cent.
The current declines in commodity prices arising from the global financial crisis are expected to impact negatively on the country’s exports. Despite the high growth registered since 2001, the number of people living below the poverty line has only dropped by about 3 per cent. Rwanda continues to depend on aid flows, with almost 50 per cent of its national budget financed by Official Development Assistance (ODA). In December 2008, the Rwanda Revenue Authority reported that it had raised its revenue collection from 47 per cent to 50 per cent of the government budget.
The fuel and food price increases in 2007 and 2008 resulted in inflation rising above single-digit levels, as transport prices rose substantially. The good agricultural season in 2008, however, had a dampening effect on food prices. In 2009, inflation is expected to be brought down to about 9 per cent and to fall further in 2010. The global economic downturn will also contribute to falling domestic prices, especially now that oil prices have dropped by more than USD 100 a barrel since July 2008.
Continuing reforms in support of the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) and the increased focus on improving the business environment, with support from the development partners, are aimed at further improving growth prospects."
Zimbabwe is not accessed.
"WITH GROWTH AVERAGING 20 PER CENT over the last three years, Angola ranks among the fastest-growing economies in the world. The growth rate slowed to an estimated 15.8 per cent in 2008 and is expected to turn negative in 2009 before rebounding in 2010. After 27 years of civil war, reconstruction is proceeding, largely financed by oil revenues, which have been developed through foreign investment by the major oil companies. Due to rising food prices, inflation increased to 13.2 per cent in 2008 but is expected to diminish as world commodity prices decline and domestic demand falls off. A technical accident lowered oil output in 2008.The fall in oil prices and the reduction of the production quotas of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will dampen growth in 2009.
Although Angola is still extremely dependent on oil, the non-oil sector has recently been showing a new dynamism, especially in agriculture, construction and services. Diversification is still hampered by weaknesses in infrastructure and the business climate, however.
Macroeconomic policies have remained prudent, for the most part. Taking advantage of its victory in September’s elections, the ruling party is pursuing deep institutional reforms, including the creation of a new Ministry of Economy, rationalisation of public enterprises and fiscal decentralisation to municipalities.
The economic boom is also generating a chaotic development process, however, giving rise to inefficiencies and co-ordination problems that are exacerbated by severe capacity shortages at all levels. Until recently, this confusion was perceived as a harmless symptom of rapid growth, but it is now clear that greater control must be exercised over project selection and implementation. The recent collapse of oil prices poses a threat to the sustainability of the boom. Indeed, in order to preserve fiscal balance and limit foreign borrowing, the government plans to review expenditure for 2009, slowing the reconstruction efforts.
While per capita income has been increasing, especially in metropolitan areas, life remains difficult for the majority of Angolans, with pervasive poverty and unemployment. Although political stability has improved, corruption remains endemic. Improvements in the business climate are needed to foster sustainable growth and employment creation through greater diversification and productivity improvements."
"For many years, the Central African Republic (CAR) has had to face political instability and internal conflicts which have weakened public institutions, undermined the economic infrastructures and basic social services, and led to a severe contraction of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and people’s incomes. This trend, however, was less pronounced during the 2004-07 period, which saw a gradual return to socio-political stability and economic growth. Real GDP growth is estimated at 2.6 per cent for 2008, or 1.6 per cent less than in 2007. This slowdown was due mainly to the combined effects of the external shocks that occurred during the year (soaring oil prices, food crisis, depreciation of the US dollar (USD) against the euro (EUR), to which the CFA franc (XAF) is pegged, the international financial crisis, and the decline in world demand for raw materials and consequent fall in their prices), as well as the electricity crisis that has prevailed in the CAR since June 2008.
The growth outlook is better in 2009/10, but remains below the objectives of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) which aims for annual GDP growth of 8 per cent by the year 2010. Real GDP growth is expected to be around 3.2 per cent in 2009 and 5 per cent in 2010 as a result of improvement in the international climate, resolution of the electricity crisis and greater stability at the national level. In 2009/10, the CAR will have to face a number of challenges: putting into effect the recommendations resulting from the Inclusive Political Dialogue (IPD) and organising the presidential and legislative elections planned for 2010; properly implementing the reforms supported by the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) programme; complying with the criteria enabling the transition from the decision point to the completion point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) in 2009; and implementing the 2008-10 PRSP."
"IN 2008, OVERALL GROSS DOMESTIC product (GDP) growth remained weak. GDP rose by only 0.2 per cent owing to the poor performance of the oil industry, which had been deteriorating since 2007, despite the strong performance of the agricultural sector. Ongoing conflicts between government forces and rebel groups have also had an impact. The oil industry’s contribution to growth will remain weak in 2009, and this will be exacerbated by a decrease in demand and in world market prices, causing GDP growth to slow by 0.7 percentage points. An improved political climate is expected to cause a recovery in consumption and investment. However, even if this occurs, it will not return Chad to positive growth rates until 2010.
In the second half of 2008, the drop in food and energy prices was not enough to stem the rising inflation seen since 1 January. The consumer price index increased by 8.1 per cent in 2008, far above the 3 per cent limit allowed under the terms of the convergence pact of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS).
Most oil production projections forecast a slight upturn in 2009-10, with the opening of new wells to offset the decreased productivity of those already operating. There is, however, a risk that the suspension of relations between Chad and the World Bank in 2008 will impact growth, with a reduction in the number of development projects. Relations were resumed on 12 January 2009, allowing a partial reopening of World Bank offices in N’Djamena, the capital of Chad."
"In 2008, economic, financial and social performance in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was low, despite promising prospects in terms of conflict resolution, exploitation of mineral wealth and structural reforms. These results are due both to exogenous factors, such as the global context of the food, energy and financial crisis, and to endogenous factors, in particular the lack of basic transportation and energy infrastructures, not to mention the low level of political and economic governance.
For this year, the growth rate was 5.7 per cent as of the end of the year, down from 6.3 per cent in 2007, and the inflation rate was 26,2 per cent, up from 16,7 per cent in 2007. During the same period, the Congolese franc (CDF) depreciated by 29.3 per cent in relation to the US dollar (USD).
The deteriorated state of public finances, the slowness of reforms, the absence of good governance and the lack of a margin of generosity on the loans granted to the country by a group of Chinese companies did not allow the DRC to enter into a programme in March – as agreed – with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Consequently, in 2008 the DRC did not reach the completion point that would have reduced the country’s debt by USD 9 billion.
The limited effects of economic growth on the population’s standard of living still place the country far from the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Nonetheless, it must be noted that progress was made with regard to improving maternal health care.
The political and security situation in the country was unstable in 2008. The year saw a change of government in November 2008, riots broke out in Bas-Congo and fighting in the east of the country, resumed caused heavy losses. The signature of a cease-fire agreement between the government and one of the rebel factions in December 2008, and General Laurent Nkunda’s arrest in Rwanda in January 2009, give reason to hope for an improved security situation in the east of the country.
On the socio-economic front, 2009, a year of global crisis, has got off to a difficult start for the country. The slowdown in growth that began in the final quarter of 2008 is expected to continue and fall to a rate of
-0.6 per cent, given the downward trend in demand for export products from the DRC, the reduction in global prices for the main exports and macroeconomic imbalances. In 2010, growth is expected to revive and reach 2.7 per cent."
Naming random African countries is not a retort, let alone a superiorly intelligent one deserving of such arrogance. You are merely playing upon people’s unwillingness to look up data. Once people look up the data your ignorance is exposed.
Most are doing better economically.
It seems that more then one person has been posting tripe.
Massive personal debt
Massive national debt
A trade deficit
High crime (far higher than other OECD nations)
Politicians who reject evolution
A highly superstitious, uninformed electorate
And we are going to go fix Africa?
If anything, countries like China will be forcing us to change. They have a surplus, they have a trillion of our debt and they are the future of science and manufacturing. China is going to start dictating to us in 30 years.
If the white man’s burden ever comes back, the ‘white man’ will be replaced with Asians from China, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, South Korea and regions in that area.
Naa. Lost interest. Fuck them. Don’t need no African money sink to boost our national ego. And it’s about time they started to stand on their own legs. I want no responsibility for the salvation and accept no blame for the failure of the third world. We should also cut all foreign aid. It’s worse than useless.
LOL. It is only from a viewpoint that we have high crime and it’s been going down for a decade. As for politicians who reject evolution it’s unfortunate but they are usually well meaning and kind like Mike Huckabee.
Amazing ,the G.D.P. for these countries so consistantly rising according to the Googled figures,
(those figures must be one in the eye for all of those greedy,hate mongering Western Whities)
and yet the quality of lifestyle and personal safety of individuals living in these countries has not only not improved one iota,many people;dare I say it ?would say that their lives have gone down hill just that little bit more.
I’m assuming that the figures are actually accurate though nations with notoriously corrupt governments are not above amending the figures here and there.
After all if you’ve been walking around all year with one shoe then getting a second one means that you’ve achieved 100% growth.
Democratic process is just so much fiction in most of Sub Saharan Africa,just as is a full belly,honest policing and freedom from corrupt govenment at all levels.
People may sit at their computers in their first world homes preaching to the rest of us just how good the lives of ordinary Africans are(And improving everyday!)
secure in their own blindness.
But for the individual Africans actually living the life; their miserable life styles just drag on day after day and then they watch their children living the life.
But some bright spark whos never even been there flits around with the internet for a few minutes and tells the poor sods who are actually suffering that hey everythings O.K. because their G.D.P has apparently gone up.
I dont know why you even post this as no doubt they already know this from having read the financial papers in their club while sipping champagne cocktails.
I’m surprised that they haven’t demanded that the West stop insulting them by sending them financial and food aid year after year.
I don’t know if you actually read the reports that you plucked off of the internet after the “Hey kids"the G.D.P.s gone up !”
Or if you did you actually understood them.
I did.
They make very depressing reading even after the attempts to whitewash the situation and far from helping your case they do the exact opposite.
With friends like you the Africans don’t need enemies.
I haven’t included your internet grabs in my post because it made the character count too large for the S.D. posting format.
More general unsubstantiated claims. You’re in Great Debates. If you have a claim the onus is on you to provide citations and it would help if made specific claims (who are “these,” how is their lives getting worse, under what time frame is it getting worse, etc).
The Human Development Index is a most advanced, generalized, standard statistical instrument we have at measuring the quality of life of people who live around the world. Using HDI Trends we will find out that the HDI trend line (which goes back 30 years) for SSA is lower then the rest of the world and has lower incline starting from the 1980’s (most contribute this to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in a lot of African countries), but it is still improving and growing.
I would trust this data as the most accurate assessment of these countries general economy and GDP; and if you look at their “About Us” page you will see from what sources they collected their data.
There are any number of ways one can computer GDP/growth, please chose one that is acceptable to you and say why.
According the Economist the political nature of Africa is a heterogeneous/mixed bag where on their Democratic scale you will find African states that are:
Authoritarian
Mauritania
Egypt
Morocco
Rwanda
Burkina Faso
Comoros
Nigeria
Cameroon
Niger
Angola
Algeria
Côte d’Ivoire
Swaziland
Gabon
Tunisia
Republic of the Congo
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Togo
Djibouti
Eritrea
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Equatorial Guinea
Guinea
Libya
Guinea-Bissau
Central African Republic
Chad
A “Hybrid regime”
Mali
Madagascar
Mozambique
Senegal
Ghana
Tanzania
Zambia
Liberia
Malawi
Uganda
Kenya
Ethiopia
Burundi
Gambia
A “Flawed Democracy”
South Africa
Namibia
Lesotho
Benin
“Fully democratic”
Mauritius
As for “full belly,honest policing and freedom from corrupt govenment”
I don’t have any statistics on those things, but it would be safe to say that they are vastly less prevalent in Africa versus any developed part of the world, however your claim that it’s “just so much fiction” is, of course, hyperbolic nonsense.
Blind is the person who makes wide sweeping, vague, uncitated claims rather then careful points and arguments based on fact and reason.
Well, this African is doing significantly better than he was in, say, 1989. The being allowed to vote and the not being beaten by the cops and the being allowed to marry whomever I want and live wherever I’d like goes a long way to improving my personal Human Development, I can tell you. And any White Man who tries to take that “burden” away from me is in for a world of misery.