No presidential election is over this early.
Suppose it had been Obama rather than Romney who got caught saying something stupid on video? That could knock him down a few percentage points and make it a close race.
Because most gaffes aren’t taken that seriously. It doesn’t help the Romney-as-competent-manager theme but sticking your foot in your mouth doesn’t cost you a ton of votes overall compared to all the other issues out there.
As much as I would like to agree, I don’t like to be over confident. So much can happen in hours/day/weeks to come.
Living in a swing state (Nevada), we are already being bombarded with political ads - on a recent Judge Judy (hey, I was in the kitchen cooking and just had it on the background) every single ad in that half hour was a political ad!
Now the big boys, with the really deep pockets, are going to start putting even more ads for Romney.
Personally, I think those ads are becoming worthless - from both sides. People are beginning to realize they are taking things out of context and I highly doubt more than .00001% of the viewers can be swayed at this point. Obama’s people are getting smarter - they have used their money to get on-the-ground organizations up and running, and will be getting out the vote in record numbers again. Romney’s on-ground teams, according to local news reports, are tiny or non-existent at this point - and there will not be the push to get the voters when the time comes.
We have early voting here - one thing I noticed in the last election (where Obama won here) was the huge number of Democrats who went to vote early. If I start to see that happening again, I will feel far more confident.
So, at this point it is all about getting out the vote - and from recent news reports, this does look good for Obama supporters like myself. Plus, as much as the Republicans have done everything possible to avoid even mentioning Bush, Democrats have not forgotten - and I think many will be quite happy to go to the polls and vote again, remembering quite well what happened the last time we had a Republican President.
The real question is how enthusiastic the Republicans are to vote for Romney…and right now, that doesn’t seem like the happiest fan-base I have ever seen.
They aren’t, but they are enthused about voting against Obama. They’d wash their hands after shaking Romney’s, but they’d walk barefoot over barbed wire in the snow to vote against Obama.
With Bill Clinton weighing in on TV ads on behalf of Obama, Bush II’s silence is positively deafening.
The fact that Romney has done virtually everything wrong, and is still within a point or two in national polls, is extremely troubling (to this Obama voter). I only draw comfort from the polls showing Obama likely to carry all the swing states he needs.
The latest gaffe, concerning the 47% freeloaders, doesn’t seem to me to be likely to sway anyone. Those leaning Romney would probably agree with that sentiment anyway (while cashing in their Social Security, Medicare, VA benefits and/or student loans).
There are a lot of people who are going to vote for Romney no matter what and a lot of people who are going to vote for Obama no matter what. You’re not going to see either guy open up a huge lead because similar numbers of people have already made up their minds about what they are voting for (or against).
As a wise sage once said:
[QUOTE=Yogi Berra]
It ain’t over 'till it’s over!
[/QUOTE]
Gas did go over $8 per gallon ( http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/sep/17/us-gas-price-protest/ ) but, oops, that was a protest against Lukoil a prior Romney Iranian investment that was FORCED to quit dealing in Iran by the Obama administration… hmmm… guess the GOP saw fit to not high light that one.
Every candidate talks about lower gas prices but I’m not sure voters really expect a president to single handedly cut the price of gas. If nothing else they’ve heard that promise too many times.
I can tell you that the people in my Church are just now starting to come to grips with the fact that they are considering voting for someone who held a leadership position in a cult. I’ve been giving them Virgil Goode’s information and they seem much more at ease voting for him instead.
I think the feeling is that there is nothing really that Romney can do to change this race, he iis going to have to rely on some sort of outside forces, economic, foreign or domestic tragedy, something out of his control. Romney just is too disliked and seems to lack the ability to turn that around quickly. Is it too early to call the election? Yes. Is it too late for Romney to affect it? I think so.
In my mind, Romney should start to pivot to the center now (instead of after the election - if he were to win). He should put the gaffes behind him and come out with details of a more moderate tax plan, soften his criticism of Obama, and explain with more depth how he would handle the economy. As was stated upthread - not being Obama is not working out.
Sure, pivoting to the center would piss-off the far right faithful, but they are going to vote for him anyway, and the past few weeks has seen what looks like a gradual erosion of the so-called undecideds to the Obama camp. He said himself that he needs more of those in the middle ground - the only way to reach them is to start talking with more substance to the center. He is going to start running out of runway in the coming weeks, so he would need to make this move now if it would make a difference.
Of course, I am sure the campaign will not listen to me, and stay on the hard right, and entrench further in that direction. It is too early to celebrate, tho - anything can happen.
Outside forces are Romney’s best bet now, I agree. Netanyahu sees the video and decides “Welp, nothin’ for it now,” and hits the “Bomb Iran” button (I imagine it as having McCain’s smiling face emblazoned on it, maybe winking).
I agree with all that, and would add that much of the above is what the campaign SHOULD have been doing months ago.
But yeah, too early to rejoice. For now, I’m just trying to enjoy the depressed facial expressions of Republicans in my vicinity…but it’s not working because I know precisely how they feel!
The odds are pretty heavily against Romney at this point. The debates are his last remaining chance – a fact which in itself reduces that chance by raising the expectation bar (preferably, the challenger wants low expectations so that even a modest performance looks impressive; Mitt now faces a situation where he has to make Daniel Webster look like Lenny from Of Mice And Men or else be written off as an inevitable loser).
“Don’t you think he looks tired?”
If it’s a “foreign or domestic tragedy”, somebody on his staff should give him a Botox injection to keep that stupid smirk off his face when he tries to exploit it.
Romney still has a sizable advantage over Obama in terms of fundraising, and he will swamp the airwaves in October. No, this isn’t over yet.
Also, Gallup reports that Obama has lost his convention bounce.
Things look bad for Romney, at this moment. But there a lot of moments between now and the election.