Not sure if this belongs in GD or IMHO but I’ll leave that decision up to the mods.
But with the news of the recent Wall St Journal/NBC Poll showing Romney losing the black vote, 94% to 0% to Obama, in addition to his already startlingly low support numbers among hispanics and the GOP’s “war on women”; it begs a certain question. How in the world can Romney win this election?
Is his campaign banking exclusively on white, Republican men to turn out in virtual 100% numbers on voting day? Because they can’t even count on all white men, as a certain (relatively sizable) portion of that demographic will also be voting for Obama. And even then; how would that be enough to beat Obama? Are they relying on voter I.D./suppression and voter apathy on the (D) side to pull off the otherwise impossible?
So let’s recap the groups that Romney has alienated or outright lost:
Hispanics and immigrants.
Yeah, I just don’t see a path to the White House for the Romney campaign. Other than a fraudulent one.
Well, a latter-day version of the Iranian hostage crisis or something terrorist related which Obama bungles could do it. The point being that it’s an external event - there’s nothing about the personalities of Romney or Ryan that suggest (to me, anyway) any deep reserves of untapped charm.
What percentage of the black vote do you think a Republican candidate needs to win to win election? Further, do you think Romney will actually have 0% of black people vote for him? Further, do you think a Republican candidate has to win a majority of the women to win election?
I highly suggest you look at exit polling for the 2004 election. You could look at the 2000 election too, which would open your mind to another possibility: that you don’t have to win the popular vote at all to win the Presidency. National opinion polls try to measure, within the margin of error, how voters nationwide might vote come election day. But that is essentially a popular vote prediction which isn’t how we pick Presidents.
There are a lot of resources out there now that compile state polls to make EV projections.
Finally, Romney most likely won’t win, at least based on his polling in those EV projections I mentioned. However it almost certainly won’t be because he’s polling 0% of the black vote. Keep in mind the states with the largest black populations are in the Deep South. Paradoxically those states are where the black vote matters the least, because the majority population in those states are so staunchly Republican, the large black population is effectively “disenfranchised” when it comes to the electoral college. Bush didn’t win the black vote in any number of southern states that he won in 2000 and 2004.
The only states now where blacks matter are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. And Republicans have won Ohio and Florida in recent memory while losing the black vote soundly.
The demographic that probably hurts Romney a lot more is the Hispanic voters, Bush actually made significant efforts in 2000 to court the Hispanic vote, and while he only got 38% that’s probably more than Romney will get. In 2004 he didn’t do bad with them either–in fact he got 45% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, but after that ideological purists on the far right insisted all GOP politicians be 100% anti immigration and support deporting everyone and basically waging war against Hispanics, which has destroyed probably for many election cycles any work the GOP was doing to court the Hispanic vote.
The thing is, partisanship among likely voters has become extreme. People will refuse to vote for the other side, even if their side nominates a terrible candidate, simply because they can’t stand seeing the other side win, even if that means electing a total loser. I don’t think both sides are equally to blame: I think the balance of lying and deceiving is clearly heavier on the GOP side, but my point stands. It doesn’t matter what the truth is, it matters that people defiantly believe their version is the one that is true.
Of course we used to have Democrats threatening to move to Canada; now we Republicans literally threatening armed insurrection. No, the sides aren’t equal. But both sides are heavily invested in defeating “the enemy.”
Romney would have to literally be indicted for heinous Federal crimes before his share of the vote would drop below 40%. Probably a similar number for Obama votes, as well, perhaps not quite as high. Federal crimes indictment would probably drop Obama to below 35%.
So basically, we have a very small number of “undecided” voters who are as far as I can tell are woefully out of it, politically speaking, and will vote for whomever the feel like under what could be the flimsiest of reasons. That vote could go other way, since 47-48% will vote for GOP no matter what and about the same will vote for a Democrat no matter what.
There might be a very small number of GOP voters, so sick of the bullshit nonsense that dominates the GOP these days, who might defect, but there also might be a small number of leftist Democrats who, disappointed with Obama’s largely moderate to moderate-conservative record in his first time, decide vote for a third-party. Some GOP might vote third-party as well, but I think probably fewer; the frenzied demonization of Obama by main-stream GOP leaders is the worst I’ve seen against any incumbent president in my lifetime from either side. Even W. didn’t have it so bad.
In the end, the balance is very narrowly on the side of Obama being re-elected. That balance could sway a different direction very, very easily.
Voter suppression, getting the Supreme Court to declare him the winner Bush style. Obama being assassinated* and Biden fumbling the campaign after suddenly becoming the Presidential candidate.
*Given the rabid hatred and bigotry coming from the Right I’m rather surprised he hasn’t already been assassinated, or even had a close call as far as I can tell. I never really expected him to survive his term.
At this point I think it’s more likely that Obama would win the election and lose the popular vote than Romney doing that (although neither is likely). Obama has leads in the swing states, but in the solidly red states, he’s “losing” badly.
But your response is focusing almost exclusively on my reference to Romney’s (seemingly total) lack of support among black people. That was only part of my point. I was saying that his lack of support among the African-American community in addition to his lack of support in the Hispanic and female voting demographics, both of which are sizeable portions of the electorate; will make it (seemingly) impossible for him to win in an honest election.
Three months is an eternity in politics; there is time for something horrible to hit the Obama campaign.
As it stands today, Romney will lose. The votes just do not fall his way; as it stands now, the projections in the swing states make a Romney victory unlikely. He has to win not some, but MOST of the tossups, and losing Florida would kake it almost impossible. Romey MUST win Florida; it’s not an option in any realistic scenario. Currently he is leading there but by little, and he’s losing in too many other swing states.
538 gives Obama a seven in ten chance of winning Ohio, which would be hard to overcome, and so projects it 296-242, which I think is fairly realistic and maybe closer than it actually will be. It also does not yet account for the significant possibility the Akin flap will pull Missouri back into the battlefield; it’s apparently mad ea huge difference in the Senate race. I don’t see how Obama loses enough battleground states to drop the ball without a bad event or scandal, or a brutal debate performance.
I’m always amused by the sort of question posed in the OP.
I know that a couple of polls show Obama far ahead in the electoral vote, but the popular vote numbers are not that far apart and we have months before the election in which various states, (beyond the “obvious” swing states), could shift.
Well I know it’s always shown (and talked about) as a razor-close election. But at the same time, you have this breakdown among certain demographics that would seem to contradict those ‘razor-close’ numbers of the popular vote polls. So where does this disconnect lie? If no (hyperbole of course) women, blacks or hispanics are voting for Romney, yet he’s still polling within the margin of error of Obama; something is amiss. Who’s voting for him?
I didn’t ignore your point about Hispanics or women. I actually mentioned Bush did not win women, Hispanics, or blacks.
I haven’t looked over all the opinion polling, but most likely Romney is still going to get a lot of female votes. Are these polls of likely voters? A lot of women may dislike Romney or any Republican at the moment because they have gotten much more vocal on being anti-abortion, but there is also a core of women that are older, pro-life fundamentalist types who think any woman who wants an abortion is just a whore who couldn’t keep her legs closed. Romney doesn’t have to win 55% of the women vote.
Bush only got 43% of the women in 2000, for example.
You do realize that those expecting Obama to win “easily” still expect Romney to get 48% of the vote or more? (McCain and the Clown got 46% even in the landslide of 2008.) And those expecting Romney to win expect him to get 51%. These campaigns are still “fought at the margins” despite the huge demographic swings you speak of.
(And do note that Romney will win in a landslide among White votes. Romney will win in a landslide among Protestant votes.)
538 gives Obama a 69% chance of victory. That corresponds to him winning 50.6% of the popular vote, a close election. Intrade gives Obama a 57% chance: Nate Silver implied that the truth was probably somewhere between “Las Vegas” and his model.
If Romney could stop his bumbling, take the public’s attention off his disastrous Medicare plan and successfully hammer Obama for Bush’s recession, then the GOP could win. I predict that Obama will do better than expected as measured by the election year state of the economy and incumbency, but not by a lot. These cultural issues only work on the margin.