Romney is leading 52 to 45% among likely voters
WTF, how can Obama lead such a brilliant campaign until all of a sudden one debates propels Romney into a nice lead.
Ye people of great political understanding, what are the chance of Romney winning? Slim or high?
Sorry, can this be moved to the elections section? In my panic I forgot it existed
Sure thing.
There are all manner of polls. 538 and Princeton Election Consortium average them and model election outcomes.
538 estimates that Obama will win 292-246. They peg his odds of winning at 70.4%. Intrade puts his odds at 62.2%.
Princeton Electoral Consortium has been more optimistic for the Democratic incumbant this cycle. But now they have him winning 286-252.
Chill.
I’d bet Obama wins. But I wouldn’t bet a lot.
You already have.
And Betfair has Obama at about 68%. There seems to be some convergence. (The Betfair page writes “Login to view the latest prices”, but I think the data’s OK, just maybe a few minutes behind.)
I noticed a sort of innumeracy when chatting with a friend. I said I was worried that Obama might lose; he looked puzzled and said “But you said he had a 68% chance.” I then tried to explain to him that 68% is a far cry from 99%.
Maybe a bit of Russian Roulette thought experiment would help your friend. Your “32% chance of Romney winning” is like two bullets in a six-shooter.
Perhaps your friend confused “chance of winning” with “popular vote were election held today,” and had come to understand (correctly) that 68% of the latter figure would indeed represent a historic landslide victory for Obama.
Romney probably isn’t ahead at this point. But he’s come back from behind and it’s neck and neck.
In advising you guys to “chill,” I think (e.g.) Measure for Measure above may be subscribing to the same fallacy.
You’re probably referring to the Gallup Poll. Read this and it might relieve your anxiety a bit.