Mechanism of a McCain/Palin Victory?

How will/can they win?

I’m not interested in platforms, issues, name calling, and the like. That’s the gist of a dozen other threads.

My ideas for victory. Remember they just need the core 20% or so and few swing voters to get up around 26-27%. That’s the equal of a majority if only half the eligible population actually votes:

 Massive / unexpected turnout of the Republican base; Born again Christians, anti-abortionists, NRA folks, lifer Republicans, Bubbas. I feel Palin was good choice here to lock up the base. Not much appeal outside of it but perhaps she can steal some women votes as well. 

 The big surprise the last few days. Discussed in another thread; it would have to be big and essentially unverifiable until after the election.

 The "Bradley" effect. He was up a similar margin in California for Governor but lost. Old aunt Matilda just couldn't bring herself to vote for the "colored man".

 Massive registration/voter fraud. I suspect disallowing voters in massive numbers in key areas/states. Possibly moving poling places or adjusting polling hours. Is this ACORN organization working for Obama, McCain/Rove, or independently. Their suspect registration actions taint other voter drives.

 Are the voting machines vulnerable? Old fashion stuffing, loss, or computer hacking are all possibilities.

 Apathy. "Did you vote today?" "No, I was too busy planning the Obama victory party this evening - how about you?" "No, I need a new dress/had a meeting - he'll win so big it won't matter".

 As I've just seen, Chenney gives it up for the party and dies garnering a big sympathy vote. Pretty far fetched.

Any other thoughts or mechanisms?

I’m most worried that Obama will be far enough ahead in the polls that some of his supporters won’t bother voting because they think they won’t need to, while McCain’s turnout will be higher if he’s the underdog going into the election.

I have been thinking about Cheney. He has a heart problem again. If he steps down ,they could push for McCain or Palin to serve out the rest of the term. Wouldn’t that be fun. a major monkey wrench in the machinery of elections.

This is what lost democrats the last two elections. What is that saying “Democrats fall in love with their candidates, Republicans vote for theirs”? In either election, if everyone who “supported” Gore or Kerry had actually voted, they would have won big.

I know that people love Obama much more than Kerry or Gore, but I can’t help but wonder if this will just intensify voter apathy. If you have the sense that everyone loves the guy and will vote for him, doesn’t it make it easier to shrug off the responsibility of voting yourself? Everyone loves him, what’s one less vote going to matter? Less than 10,000 people thinking that way has lost states.

From my post in the “McCain Forked” thread:
Today’s electoral results have just a bit of change - none for the better for McCain.

Colorado moves from Barely Dem to Weak Dem
Wisconsin moves from Weak Dem to Strong Dem

In order to get 270 EV’s, McCain must do ALL of the following:

  1. Retain the 2 “Barely GOP” states - IN and NC

  2. Gain ALL of the “Barely Dem” states - NV, ND, OH, VA, FL

  3. Get a combination of 21 EV’s from the “Weak Dem” states:
    CO- 9
    NM - 5
    MN - 10
    MO - 11
    WV - 5
    ME - 4

MN and MO together would do it, otherwise he’d need a combo of 3 states.

Well, if he’d just talk clearly and forcefully about the issues, he’d win in a walk. Not so much ACORN/Ayres/Fannie and Freddie etc…(although he needs to keep hammering that stuff too, character-or lack thereof-matters*) but real, actual facts. Something like this: “Senator Obama promises to raise taxes only on the top 5% of wage earners in the US, yet has proposed almost $800 billion in new government spending. The top 5% of wage earners in the US already pay about half of all the taxes, or $1.3 trillion dollars. Mr. Obama, these numbers don’t add up.” or “Senator Obama proposes a government commission on health care to ensure that every American has access to “Affordable health coverage like Congress currently has”. However, the health plan that Congress has currently costs (around, I forget the exact number) $1500 per covered person per month, or $18,000 per year. Mr. Obama, I don’t know much about the lucrative world of Chicago machine politics, but in the real world where my constituents live, $18000/year is not “affordable”” A series of 4 or 5 commercials in this vein, in heavy rotation, would likely have a very positive effect for McCain.

*In before “but, but, but Keating…”

That largely disappeared in the 90s, and a pollster working for the other guy has claimed that his polls showed the lead to be within the margin of error. I’m not particularly worried about it, to be honest.

I think McCain will win because of the silent majority. The left and the mediaake a lot of noise and present presimptions as facts, but, there’s a lot of people, particularly older, who just don’t feel the need to publically air and discuss their views. There’s a lot of people that won’t do it simply because to be pro republican publically produces such strong reactions and intolerance in those that disagree.

McCain will likely win, and there will be a lot of confusion and anger and accusations on the left as to what happened.

Old people don’t get called by pollsters?

If Wall Street hadn’t shit all over itself just a month and a half before the election, I would have said it was going to be a close race.

I can’t think of a strategy that will move five percentage points from Obama to McCain, unless it’s something that will make the voters think that McCain knows how to fix the economic mess, and have that message communicated clearly.

They get called, but if they’re like my parents, they just hang up on them or refuse to speak to them.

So the elderly screen their calls more than younger voters? Or refuse toarticipate in polls more often? OH, I got it! They’re on cell phones only! No? Oh.

I gotta say, in my anecdotal sample, the silent ones are the pro-Obama folks. When I associate with my family and friends in red america, I hear a LOT about Obama and how much he sucks, and almost all of it raised and entered into non-political conversations by McCain supporters. Typically like this: “You young people. You’ don’t know what you’re doing. Tell me you’re voting for McCain.” etc. This idea that people are ashamed to be anti-Obama in america is kind of crazy. Of course, they’re not really pro-McCain, but they are amped up and vocal about the danger of Obama and his present votes and his Ayers and his high taxes and his mean wife.

As far as the mechanism, there is still room for something that would shift the huge majority of the undecideds to McCain, and just enough Obama supporters to make the difference. I can’t imagine what that thing might be, but that’s why they call it an October Surprise. I think that the John McCain of 2000 with Mitt Romney or even Huckabee as veep would have been extremely tough to beat. But this current McCain is nothing to be excited about, and I think that’s what he needs to do to win- get people excited.

Having the Supreme Court declare him the winner? I bet there will be litigation if he does indeed lose which looks likely.

I can’t see what he can say tonight or for the remaining days that’ll suddenly cast him in a new light.

I’m firmly convinced that young people getting the results of exit polls from the internet saw that Kerry was in the lead and bailed, while older people who got television news did not, because TV withheld the poll numbers, resulting in Bush getting a larger percentage of the later votes.

With only three months left in the term, I doubt they’d even bother replacing him, and even if they did, a Democratic Congress would approve Bush’s selection of McCain or Palin? No way.

I don’t see anything short of another Pearl Harbor type event shifting the momentum to JM. If that happened, and some form of military response was necessary, JM might regain the popular support he has lost.

Well, apparently they think they can win using the Hillary Clinton playbook, because it was so successful for her don’cha know. I just heard Sarah Palin declare at a rally, “We need a President who is ready to lead on Day One!”


Their campaign really is breathtakingly stupid. There is nothing short of outright election day fraud that is going to give McCain/Palin a win.

I’ve been thinking this for a little while now. That McCain is basically acting like Clinton did in the primaries. However, McCain is letting his campaign become even worse causing many disaffected republicans to stay home election day.

Obama might drop a real clanger tonight. But really, absent something really interesting, it’s all over for McCain.

Hmm… here’s a thought: suppose a few days before the election, McCain suffers ‘a bout of ill-health’ and withdraws in favour of Palin? Palin, despite her flaws, is massively more popular than McCain. So McCain might win by losing.