Obama’s winning percentage seems to have stabilized in the low 60’s on both 538 and Intrade. He has had some decent state polls in the last few days: most important of course is the PPP poll which shows him up by 5 in Ohio but also the Gravis poll which shows him up by 2.4 in Colorado and the PPP which shows him down by just 1 in Florida.
The Real Clear Politics average has Obama and Romney … wait for it … exactly tied at 47.3 each
The race starts now. Or to be technical, it’s back to where it started exactly a year ago, on Oct. 4, 2011, when the RCP average was tied at 45.8 each.
IOW, the race will be close and Romney has the harder task of winning a whole bunch of states that Obama won in 2008 without losing any. (Or winning a bunch+ if he does.)
Who are these last 5%? What separates them from 3% who took the last year to make up their minds? That’s become the only question of interest.
I’ve been doing phonebanking and canvassing for the Obama campaign here in Ohio, and they’re pushing early voting very, very hard. They want everyone to do it, so they can focus GOTV in the last week or two on supporters who still haven’t voted yet.
Just watch, if Obama wins, they’ll start griping about early voting being “not fair” or something about voter fraud or some such. :mad:
Yes, I said “if” not “when.” I’m officially nervous now. 
A more serious European financial crisis could tank the current administration.
I am still waiting for an ‘October Surprise’.
We get the leadership we deserve.
<sigh>
ahem
47.3 to 47.4 for Romney, even with that idiotic ABC poll in there.
What’s idiotic about the ABC poll (other than that it appears to be a bit of an outlier)?
Nevermind I think I found the answer: +9 Democrat party ID
Close enough for me; it’s a tie.
I’m pretty sure that “tied in the polls” is bad news for an incumbent and a bit of good news for a challenger.
It’s good news in the sense that the incumbent is always favored, so to work to a tie means the campaign is going well. It’s not good news in the tie-goes-to-the-challenger sense, since that seems to be a political myth.
At this point, Romney’s very best puts him about even. The good news for him is that means the race is winnable. The good news for Obama is that it means a decent rebound and a competent finish will probably hold the White House.
That’s a change since I linked to it.
I’ll make a fearless political prediction. It will change again tomorrow. And the next day, and the next day, and the next…
And that will somehow surprise people.
That’s what I was saying back when the liberals on this board were crowing about how the election was already in the bag for Obama and were wondering why Romney didn’t just quit and let someone else try to win.
The fact is, the polls swing a LOT in October. We aren’t going to have a solid sense of where the election is going until probably the last week of the campaign, and even then there may be a ‘late hit’ by either side that could move the polls several points before the election. Bush was leading Gore by several points going into the last weekend before the election in 2000 when the Gore campaign got in a late hit with his DUI, and it almost cost him the White House.
One thing that should really worry Obama, though - Romney saved up a lot of his campaign cash apparently, and is spending it all now. Obama blew a lot of his money weeks and even months ago. So Romney could have a large advertising advantage in the last couple of weeks of the campaign.
Obama raised more than $180 million in September.
I don’t know that I’d classify “spent a LOT of money on local offices and ground game expenditures” as “blew”. More like “invested”.
My problem at the time was that a consistent 5-6 point lead didn’t look like an insurmountable margin to me.
So… you don’t trust Nate Silver then? I mean yeah a lot can happen in October, but you can measure such movement in a statistical model. I haven’t read anything so far that would lead me to distrust some combination of intrade and 538.
OMG and adaher have both maintained that Romney would win this thing with incredible confidence… up to the point of putting something tangible where their mouth is. I found that a little silly.
Currently 538 gives Obama 2:1 odds. Intrade gives Romney a 38% chance. That’s not an awful situation for Romney to be in: if he can hit another double like he did in the first debate or convince people that he supports the carried interest loophole out of his love for America then the race could tighten further.
Nate Silver is kind of my Bible on this, and by his numbers, Romney has not really even gotten close. Even at his very lowest point, Obama has not had less than a 60% chance of victory, and has more often hovered around 70%, sometimes even 80%.
Romney seems to have had a soft bounce after the first debate, but it wasn’t enough to really get him a lead or really even bring him to a tie in electoral votes. Now Silver has Obama starting to gain some of that back after the VP debate, and I expect Obama to be far more aggressive tomorrow night than he was in the first debate.
In addition, Obama is crushing 59%-31% in the early voting
I think we’re in dead girl/live boy territory, and I’m not even sure a live boy would be that fatal anymore.
Nazarene, I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. Few people would characterize a 40 percent chance of victory as “not even close”. Are you sure you weren’t confusing this figure for “likely popular vote were the election held today”? Because that is a very different beast. 60/40 for THAT would indeed be a landslide. But 40 percent chance of victory? That means Romney wins in nearly half the runs of the model! Russian Roulette with four bullets in a ten-round pistol!* That’s a call to action, not a reason to take a relieved breather (if you support Obama).
*If there is such a thing. If there isn’t, you know what I mean.
I think Nate Silver is pretty good, and his odds are probably reasonable given the information we have today.
The thing is, there’s a lot of information we don’t have. So while the numbers may be accurate, the error bars around them are very large.
The other problem is common to all models: they’re only as good as their data, and the data on presidential elections is very thin because they change so radically over time. The internet, for example, has only been a major factor in elections for 15-20 years, which is only 3-4 presidential elections. And even in that time, the landscape has changed dramatically. That’s a pretty thin dataset.
So while I think Nate Silver has good models, I’m not sure their predictive power is all that good. He had good results in 2010 for Senate races and governorships, but he missed the house Republican gain by 10 seats or so.
I tried to find out what his confidence intervals look like, but I ran out of my 10 article limit on the NY Times.
It’s 66-34 right now, and that’s still a good week for Romney. It was 60-40 for a like a day. There have also been days where Obama floated up into the 80’s.
Obama has consistently held onto 2-1 odds in Silver’s models, on Intrade and we now see those numbers borne out in the early voting. I don’t see that forecast as being likely to change short of some dramatic event or scandal.
I don’t think Obama is going to be exposed as a perv or anything. It must drive a lot of conservatives nuts that Obama is squeaky as ivory soap on the family values stuff. The guy seems to have some weird thing where he’s really only sexually interested in his own wife. Is there a word for that.
Some Republicans might say that this is another thing that makes him “different,” “not quite human,” even “un-American”! 