Obama got a really strong poll out of New Hampshire today showing him up +6. I don’t know how much longer Romney can realistically hope to carry that state.
Sure, but did you see the internals? 
I agree. adaher and his ilk have placed their flag on the hill of the “polls are wrong”, the rest of us have placed it on “the polls reflect reality”. At this point it is pointless to continue trying to outwit the other side. Whoever wins will win and then we can do some post-hoc neener-neener.
I, for one, am really looking forward to this post-hoc neener-neener.
If Obama wins (and I believe he will), he will have done so on the strength of much more capable campaign tacticians than Romney has. They pinpointed Ohio from the very start and have been attacking Romney there since the GOP primaries. I could see Ohio shifting more than “normal” relative the the nation because Camp Obama has been making it their primary focus for nearly a year.
You know that Obama’s been campaigning in Ohio a lot more than the average state, don’t you? Is it a teensy-bit possible that the heavily campaigned (let’s call them “swing”) states will behave differently than the national trend?
After the latest jobs report, I will stick my neck out and call it for Obama. He has the state polls, he has the momentum, he has the narrative and he has the ground game. I think his chances of winning are now above 90%.
But does he have the pundits???
Democrats were clearly oversampled, don’tcha know.
Thanks for doing the math – I was too lazy to do it myself. You are quite right. Not likely to happen.
That’s kind of gross, isn’t it?
I mean, wouldn’t the skittles be covered in poop?
The direct approach isn’t going to happen, no, but there’s a way around it. TheNational Popular Vote Bill has been passed already in 9 of the 51 electoral entities, totaling 132 EV’s. As soon as the bill is passed by entities adding up to at least 270, the EC majority, they will all give all their EV’s to the national popular vote winner, making him/her the President regardless of the Constitution’s archaicism.
I really worry about this.
What stops a state that signs the compact from passing a bill that overturns it between the election and the day electors vote? Or even adding a state constitutional measure on the same ballot as the presidential race that overturns the statute?
And what if it’s really close but there are irregularities in, say, Texas. Can California force a recount in Texas to avoid having to give their votes to the GOP candidate?
I’d much rather a real Constitutional solution or just sticking with the current system, which at least has some advantages to offset the clear disadvantages.
No “neener-neener for me.” Taunting the mentally ill does not end well.
Are the legions of right wingers shouting, “ROMNEY WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE!” delusional or pathological?
You’re overthinking. It’s a means of getting a Constitutional solution.
But it is fun.
Legions?
No crosstabs, so you wouldn’t be able to tell.
Explain how? You think that if enough states sign on then an amendment will pass? Why?
Do you have a response to any of the concerns I’ve outlined. Right now if Texas (for example) royally screws up their vote total they only effect Texas. But if they do so under this plan they can throw the entire election.
I will be surprised if enough states approve it for it to ever go into effect.
I also suspect if it does happen it will end up tied up in court.