Is it too early to say Romney has lost?

[Omg_a_Black_Conservative]

@ChrisM

Really? For example, in the latest Pew poll, Romney is only winning 57% of white voters. The ABC/Washington Post poll gives Romney 58% of white voters.

Romney is obviously going to win white voters by a sizable margin. The question is whether he does so by enough to win the election.

Kerry got 41% of White voters when Bush got 58%.
Obama isn’t even going to crack 40% of White voters this year and may very well lose the “White vote” by 20 points.

And the problem isn’t just that Obama may very well lose White voters; the problem is that he’s not going to retain the same level of support he did in 2008 among non-White voters, whereas Romney will perform better, if albeit minimally, among non-White voters than did McCain.

[Truman_Burbank]

Dude, I gotta hand it to you. Silver has Romney at about 16% as we speak, and no discernable cracks in your air of certainty.
The hour grows close…

[Omg_a_Black_Conservative]

…Not that this is important or anything, but I don’t really care what Nate says.

Edit: And since someone brought up the WaPo/ABC poll, I took a peek at it. No idea what the partisan breakdown is, but there’s no way for Obama to win win the election while losing Whites 58 - 38, while behind with Independents by 7% and while losing the gender gap by 4 (+2 among women and -6 among men). That would be unheard of unless women are going to make up nearly 70% of the electorate (that’s a rough estimate. I’m too lazy to do the actual math).

[GIGObuster]

@Omg_a_Black_Conservative

…Not that this is important or anything, but I don’t really care what Nate says.

As the point always is lost, Nate is actually like a messenger, he depends on what the polls are saying, and even going away from his interpretations or the weights of polls, the polls are trending for Obama.

[Lamar_Mundane]

538 update from earlier tonight. Adding in a couple of new polls, Obama’s chances are raised a full point to 83.7%.

NBC/Marist polls show Obama +6% in Ohio, +2% in Florida.

[MsWhatsit]

@Lamar_Mundane

538 update from earlier tonight. Adding in a couple of new polls, Obama’s chances are raised a full point to 83.7%.

NBC/Marist polls show Obama +6% in Ohio, +2% in Florida.

This is just the break the Romney campaign has been waiting for.

[GrandWino]

@Omg_a_Black_Conservative

…Not that this is important or anything, but I don’t really care what Nate says.

Nobody is surprised by your aggressive war against mathematics.

I’m too lazy to do the actual math).

You don’t say?

[MilTan]

@adaher

The basis is that despite record minority turnout in 2008, many pollsters think minorities will vote in even larger numbers in 2012. That is an educated guess, which if it turns out to be wrong, will mean most pollsters missed by a mile.

Pollsters are also figuring that the youth vote will be similar to what it was in 2008, which is very unlikely to be true. If the electorate is older than in 2008, that’s a couple of points in Romney’s favor.

That’s not how reputable pollsters weight their samples – no one (other than Rasmussen with party ID) is making assumptions about the composition of the voting population. They weight their samples based on Census demographics. Then they apply a Likely Voter screen which does not ask about age or race. The racial composition of registered and likely voters is an output of the process, not an input.

The only real argument you can make is that the likely voter screen is not calibrated properly, and the poll’s results don’t realistically reflect how many registered voters will actually vote. Note, though, that the screen could be too lose (in which case it is probably overestimating youth and minority turnout), but it could also be too tight, in which case it may be underestimating the President’s support. Given that the LV-RV gap is much bigger this year than in years past (Gallup’s was running at about 6 points), it seems unlikely (though not impossible) that the error is in too-loose a screen.

[John_Stamos_Left_Ear]

@Omg_a_Black_Conservative

…Not that this is important or anything, but I don’t really care what Nate says.

Disregarding evidence that fails to match a predetermined hypothesis is the hallmark of Creationists, Climate Change deniers, Birthers, Truthers and other sellers of snake oil.

It may not be fair that one is judged by the company they keep but… You’re gonna be judged by the company you keep.

[John_Stamos_Left_Ear]

Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls is partly coincidental — there weren’t any polls of North Carolina on Friday, for instance, which is Mr. Romney’s strongest battleground state — they nevertheless represent powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a “tossup.” A tossup race isn’t likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other — any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)

Instead, Mr. Romney will have to hope that the coin isn’t fair, and instead has been weighted to Mr. Obama’s advantage. In other words, he’ll have to hope that the polls have been biased in Mr. Obama’s favor.

[…]

To be exceptionally clear: I do not mean to imply that the polls are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor. But there is the chance that they could be biased in either direction. If they are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor, then Mr. Romney could still win; the race is close enough. If they are biased in Mr. Romney’s favor, then Mr. Obama will win by a wider-than-expected margin, but since Mr. Obama is the favorite anyway, this will not change who sleeps in the White House on Jan. 20.

My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

I’m ready to make my worst case scenario prediction for Obama: I predict he will get a minimum of 276 EVs. I don’t see how he can lose based on polling and trends. So unless the polls are ridiculously biased against Romney, I’m ready to put a fork in Mitt. He’s done, finished, kaput.

This is the worst case scenario; Obama will win:
NV
IA
NH
VA
WI
Plus all the usual.

Romney will win:
FL
OH
CO
NC
Plus all the usual.

276-262 Obama wins. Of course I’m basing my prediction on Nate Silver’s probability for each state, so if you don’t trust Nate, YMMV.

In my worst-case scenario, I refuse to give Ohio to Obama just because, and I don’t trust Nate’s 68% on Obama for Colorado. For every other state, as long as Nate gives Obama a 55% chance or better, I’m confident Obama will win it (and no blue-colored state falls below VA’s 67% mark). Romney just doesn’t have the time to really change anything at this point.

My worst-case scenario map for Obama.

(Also, my best-case scenario for Obama. I don’t think he’ll get more than 303. I think the best he can hope for is to pick off CO and OH.)

[RickJay]

The really interesting thing about the last minute polls is that Florida, which has been dead red for weeks, may now be back to tossup status. If Florida goes for Obama you can just turn the TV off at that point.

So, Happy, your best case scenario is wrong. Florida appears to be in play. Silver has it as just a 55% Romney edge, which is a coin flip, pretty much. The best case now looks like this, IMHO:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfHl

I’ll hand NC to Romney, though it’s not really a SURE thing, but it’d have to be a pretty major disappointment for Romney to lose it.

But again, that’s BEST CASE. A “Best case” scenario can’t by definition include pessimistic guesses about a state as close as Florida.

My best case scenario for Romney sees him winning 291-247:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfHx

[Dob]

Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

I’m really starting to like Nate. He puts it out there, explains why he thinks what he does and doesn’t sugar coat it much.

I hope he’s right, but I think I will just keep worrying until Wed morn next week.

[Knorf]

Here’s my worst-case map for Obama, where he still wins 272-266, even with losing Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

I think it will be 303-235 for Obama, with a map identical to Happy Lendervedder’s.

In my wildest dreams, I think it could be this, with Obama winning every “swing” state, ending 347-191.

Obama has many paths to victory. I just don’t see this working out well for Romney, barring the polls being way wrong and/or serious voting malfeasance in the swing states. Even then, Obama can still plausibly win, as in my “worst-case” scenario above.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

@RickJay

The really interesting thing about the last minute polls is that Florida, which has been dead red for weeks, may now be back to tossup status. If Florida goes for Obama you can just turn the TV off at that point.

So, Happy, your best case scenario is wrong. Florida appears to be in play. Silver has it as just a 55% Romney edge, which is a coin flip, pretty much.

I don’t know. I actually think if Florida stays at 55% or better for Romney, it’s his. But should it trend just a smidge toward Obama today, then a best-case scenario for Obama would probably have to include the elusive Sunshine State.

[DMark]

@Omg_a_Black_Conservative

…Not that this is important or anything, but I don’t really care what Nate says.

I admire your conviction and understand exactly where you are coming from.
I too tried to envision Gore and Kerry getting elected - and was sure the polls were all wrong.

Just try to take this all into perspective - it is not looking good for Mr. Romney. Sure, you can grasp as many straws as you wish, but be honest. It may seem that getting an additional 1% here and 2% there is not insurmountable, but added all together, in all of those swing states, well - it does get to be very tricky and hard to do.

I do not want to rub anything in your face - all I am doing is warning you not to pin too many hopes on wisps of dreams.
Been there, done that - ain’t fun.

[MOIDALIZE]

They must feel Florida is in play, because Bill Clinton just finished up some campaigning down there.

[Ca3799]

This probably has already been discussed here and if so, please direct me there, but is there anything to prevent electoral votes from being arbitrarily switched from Obama to Romney?

[Belowjob2.0]

@MsWhatsit

This is just the break the Romney campaign has been waiting for.

This is just the break the Dole campaign has been waiting for.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

@Ca3799

This probably has already been discussed here and if so, please direct me there, but is there anything to prevent electoral votes from being arbitrarily switched from Obama to Romney?

IIRC, it’s up to the states to hold electors accountable, so penalties would vary according to state law.

ETA: There’s some more info on this here.