I think he is ahead, but Jamie Harrison is making a real race out of it. He absolutely embarrassed and destroyed Graham in the debate, which produced some great viral clips.
Latest polls have it very close and if Trump costs votes, it might be possible. I would not have thought this possible just a little while ago.
Could it happen?
There’s not a lot of polling in that race, but the polls that have been done in the past few weeks have shown a statistical tie.
That said, 538’s models still favor Graham, and their model runs have Graham winning 80% of the time.
Could it happen? Sure, but being an incumbent is still a tremendous advantage.
It would be amazing, but I can’t convince myself to believe that it will actually happen.
PredictIt has it around 70 - 30 right now, FWIW.
Even if Graham wins, a tight race in a solid red state like that has got to be putting the rest of the Republicans on the ropes.
I’m in the same space. Graham’s biggest problem has been his sagging numbers with Republicans, some of whom actually seem to remember that he said terrible things about Trump before he did his 180 to being a Trump lickspittle. With the Barrett nomination, he has an excellent opportunity to demonstrate his value and bring these voters home.
Maybe the best hope is that he somehow blows it on the nomination, although I can’t imagine how.
plenty of GOP people bashed Trump in 2016 and now they lick his boots. Graham is not alone in that club Pretty much all the people who ran in the primaries in 2016 went after him hard
I heard part of the debate this morning and immediately sent a donation to the Harrison campaign. I also made donations to Amy McGrath and Sara Gideon. This is the first time I’ve ever contributed to out of state races.
If we take out all forms of voter suppression and cheating, I think the Biden campaign would normally be preparing the celebration party. His odds continue to improve. WSJ just had a poll with him 14 points ahead, which is insane.
I still think Trump has a chance, though.
I sure hope so. It would be a big upset and a big surprise, though.
It would be nice, but there are way too many white people in the South who would never consider voting for a Democrat, especially a black Democrat. It’s very easy for a D candidate to come close, but very hard for them to fully close the gap, and I’m not sure SC has the right geographic / demographic balance for it to happen there. (Generally, you need at least one really big city with lots of college-educated professionals and transplants from other parts of the country, like Atlanta or Charlotte.)
At best, polls are tied. And it’s deep red SC and Lindsey is the incumbent so tie goes to Lindsey.
Plus he’s got ten million of superpac money coming in and the third party on his right dropped out.
Exactly. No SC isn’t all pickup trucks and klan hoods, but a lot of their new economy has been manufacturing. And, neither Clemson or USC are exactly academic powerhouses spurring growth. So, they’re just not getting the same transplants as NC and GA
Imagine if the first state to have two Black senators was South Carolina!
That would be great!
While I know you mean the first state to have two concurrently serving black Senators, the first state to have had two black Senators was actually Mississippi during Reconstruction.
Good point. It’s really easy to forget Reconstruction when proclaiming Black “firsts” in government.
Trump’s illness and the fact that the GOP has become the party of the Trump personality cult though may be a wildcard that offset the incumbency advantage. I would not make any bets myself.
[nitpick]
Just to clarify (for the benefit on anyone, like me, who had to do some Wikipedia research…) It’s Jaime Harrison, not Jamie the cricket player.
[/nitpick]
They may consider Graham to be the devil they know. So much could happen between now and election day though. In most election cycles I wouldn’t expect much to happen, but this year we never know what’s waiting around the corner for us.
It would serve him right to lose his ass, both literally and figuratively.