One of the commentators over here said it would either be a massive crackdown or the end of the regime. I think it might be both in the end. The latest reports say that 5 monks have been killed and considering the role of Buddhism, mentioned by kelly5078, this might actually provoke more people out into the streets. Many seem to believe that the fact that it is the monks who are instigating this rather than students like last time, might be a deciding factor. How the military reacts to possible (and likely) breaks of the curfew will be important.
The Security Council meeting tonight will be interesting. China and/or Russia will probably veto any official statement, but still it might have some effect. The Burmese junta aren’t used to having the eyes of the world on them so maybe it will influence their actions.
Note: this is not a Bush bash - I fully support the President’s words and actions with relation to Burma.
However, the scant discussion of the situation on this normally worldly board kinda gives the lie to the statement: “President Bush expressed the outrage of the American people at the continued oppression of the people of Burma.”
How much outrage is there, really? My search on the SDMB for the last week has six mentions of the country (and three on Myanmar), all in this thread. Or is it just diplomacy speak? Seems a strange choice of words, if so.
I try to be optimistic, but I have this awful feeling that I’ve seen this before, and I know how it ends. I’m disgusted that the Australian government isn’t being more unequivocal in its condemnation, but I shouldn’t be surprised.
Reported on the BBC radio news this morning: at the UN, France attempting to put pressure on Russia and China, was told by the Russian delegate, in private “next time there’s a riot in Paris, we’ll take you to the Security Council”. FFS.
You know what Russia, moral equivalency only works when there’s actual equivalence. Sure, Myanmar is going to be acting in the same way that the Soviets would have, and you wish you could now in similar situations (ie, close down the city, and kill all the protesters, their parents and their school friends), but there just happens to be a difference between the west and dictatorships.
Oh, and a big slap to the head of Australia’s opposition/next potential (and probable)government, who have had the sense of statemanship to criticise the current government while offering exactly nothing in the way of leadership on this issue.
BBC now reporting tens of thousands of troops have poured into the centre of Rangoon and have threatened “extreme action” against the protestors. Barbed wire barricades all over, so there’s no escape for them if the army starts firing.
Two members of the National League for Democracy, the party led by pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, were also arrested overnight.
The picture on Ko Htike’s blog of empty sandals abandoned on a bloodstained street may be one of the most chilling things I’ve seen.
There isn’t going to be a happy ending to this. The military will crack down (with monks taken off the streets and into the cells, it’ll be less controversial to shoot ordinary citizens, apparently) and the international community will find nothing useful to do. (Chinese and Russian obstruction being mainly to blame).
From the Guardian There is a group within the Army who are unhappy with the situation and have written a letter in support of the monks. Apparently. Whether these officers are currently in a position to influence events is unclear. It’s a little encouraging, and suggests there might not be a unrestrained stamping out of dissent. However, this is a regime which has long used rape as a means of pacifying its population, so the bar for appalling brutality is set pretty low.
The Communist governments of North Korea and Cuba have managed to hang on to power despite widespread international hostility because, among other things, they have an ideology – one that has actually had a lot of popular appeal in the past two centuries. An ideology many have been willing to die for – even when fighting in and for countries not their own. But what has the Burmese junta got for an ideology? When the dissidents demand “Democracy!” and the Buddhist monks chant their prayers, what (rhetorical) answer have they got? It’s very hard to maintain a government if it offers the people nothing to believe in. Such a government becomes perceived as merely the “gang in possession,” and who would die for that?
I wonder how much the situation in Burma is in the news around the world. Here in Norway, Burma is the top story probably because of the radio station Democratic Voice of Burma which is based in Oslo. They are very vocal and present in the media and are doing a very good job at keeping our eyes focused on Burma.
I think it’s very important that the world keeps watching, some reports indicate that the junta are trying very hard to stop journalists from reporting and pictures and stories from getting out. If they succeed it will be 1988 all over again. The question is really whether they will do that regardless, it’s not looking good.
Over here it’s on the front page of all the broadsheets (and some of the tabloids). Top story on BBC and Sky TV news. Top story on BBC and Sky News websites.
BrainGlutton, regarding ideology, there was a Burmese exile on the radio last week who said words to the effect that the main problem with the SLORC is that they’re “stupid” and “lazy”. “They go to international diplomatic meetings and they get bored halfway through. They just want to be playing golf or drinking.” They’ve got no ideology other than selfishness, greed and lust for power. Which is powerful in itself, but not for those who serve it.
They’ve still got the army on side, though. I think the best we can hope for is that the disquiet amrussell mentions grows, and that the army rebels against its leadership.
