I think the endgame is on with North Korea. Yesterday the regime announced they are on “highest alert” and are ready to attack South Korea, Guam, Hawaii and the mainland US. While I know they have been posturing for years, I have the feeling that the young dictator Kim Jong-Un is unstable enough to do a WTF thing and just go apeshit. I am well aware that they pose no threat to the mainland US but they have the ability to wreak havoc in the South.
Seoul will no doubt be the main recipient of this, along with many of the 30,000 or so US troops stationed in South Korea. I do not think China will step in if a full shooting war breaks out, nor do I think the US will do more than an air support role.
I think the US and especially China (Who I believe that with their economic aspirations, would be happy without the Korean problem) wants this to finally be over, even though the cost in lives will be high.
My question for debate is, Is it time to get this over with or does this continue for years to come?
When you say, “time to get this over with”, are you talking pre-emptive action?
Is there evidence that NK is doing more than simply shooting its mouth off, as it so often does? What does “highest alert” actually mean in terms of real aggression?
I presume rather than a nation of 24 1/2 million ignorant, indoctrinated, impoverished souls you are referring to a non-elected ruling elite, possibly comprising one ‘supreme’ leader and a handful of political/military sycophants?
In which case it might be less misleading if you were to use 'The North Korean leadership’rather than ‘North Korea’.
Eh, we do this every year or two. I don’t think there’s any real reason to think the N. Korean regime is any more suicidal this year then last.
Don’t think there’s really any reason to think that, but in anycase, conventional wisdom seems to be that the country is controlled by the same old-guard of Generals that were there during the previous Kim. I don’t think Jong-Un has the power to start a war even if he wanted to.
“Getting this over with” would mean the deaths of millions of people. The N. Korean regime is terrible for its own people, but so long as there isn’t another war, outside its borders it isn’t really any more then an annoyance.
I don’t think it’s more of the same. I think he is about to go off and start a war. I think the dude is that insane, and seeing that dwindling support from China and some lesser countries is taking the country down. I know they have talked shit forever, bit I believe this might be it.
And speaking of old guard generals and the elite, I am not sure they are getting the same sort of patronage and supplies they are used to. I think they are being squeezed and they are getting to the point of this ain’t working. This regime is not going to be supported forever.
Ok. How do you feel the Korean issue will play out? Instead of telling me my scenario hasn’t happened yet, which is true, tell me how you think the two Koreas will ever resolve this. Will they unite? Will the North extend the hand of frienship someday? What is your opinion?
I don’t think there’s much reason to think they will resolve it. The status-quo has lasted sixty years now, there isn’t really any reason to think it can’t last another sixty.
Eventually enough of the old guard will die off and N. Korea will follow the obvious Chinese example and allow market reforms and become less of a impoverished basket case (especially since Chinese wages have risen to the point where they’re looking to outsource labor to poorer countries). But I don’t really see any reason to think re-unification will happen within my lifetime.
Thank you for pointing this out. I certainly was under the impression that Klaatu was referring to and equally impugning every individual malnourished citizen of North Korea, from Min-jun the fishmonger to Seo-yun the cleaning lady. It certainly would strain credulity to suggest that Klaatu was simply applying common usage by naming the nation in reference to state action.
Well, in that case “common usage” conflates populations with non-elected leaderships, and with the focus on deeds done by the latter, makes it a whole lot easier to commit grevious acts - mostly affecting the former.
Thank you bienville. Yes I certainly wasn’t aware that when referring to a country that I must state the system of government first, before any comment regarding said country. :rolleyes:
IMHO, there’s no war coming. It’s to unify the masses in the face of a coming food shortage in the spring. When their rations are cut to 500 calories a day in May or June, “because our glorious troops need nourishment to fuel their imminent destruction of the imperialist American aggressors and their lackeys”, North Koreans won’t mind so much.
It would seem to the layman, when referring to North Korea, it is needless to point out the repressive government, and even one such as you would realize that, if you had read my OP that I used the word "regime’ which should have been a clue that I wasn’t referring to the population at large.
We tried rescuing the poor innocent population of Iraq from their non-elected leadership. :rolleyes: For better or worse, 99% of the time a country’s people and its government have to be taken as synonymous.
There are signs that the North Korean leadership has given up on its former policy of using its nuclear program as a bargaining chip for aid. I could see North Korea launching an invasion of the south once they’re confident that they possess enough of a nuclear deterrent to (attempt to) force the US to look the other way.
To you and Simplicio, it would be nice to see a smooth transition based on economics and growth between the two Koreas. I feel that millions have starved to death in the North and North Korea will go down fighting.
I think someday we will learn of horrific treatment of people in North Korea and millions of deaths, covered up by the leadership.
Personally, I think Kim Jong Un is ripe for a military coup. What are the chances this is just the fat kid playing tough and all his top military thinks he’s unhinged as well?