Is North Korea starting a war?

Great Debates
61

[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
And don’t think North Korea doesn’t understand this. This is the reason they got nuclear weapons - so that the United States can’t attack them with impunity.
[/QUOTE]

Geeze…you sound just like Der Trihs. It’s really only a problem you have to worry about if a country acts like an outlaw state. NK doesn’t need nukes to be able to starve millions of their citizens to death…their treaties with China would ensure the US didn’t come in an ruin the fun, not to mention their massive conventional forces. Their nukes have less to do with protecting them from the big, bad US, as it is a symbol of their power.

Sheesh.

-XT

62

The local press here is reporting “Chances of North Korea’s Involvement Are Slim.”

And, if anyone believes that the reason that North Korea’s developing nuclear weapons is to prevent an attack by the United States, well, you’re seriously lacking in knowledge of that heinous government’s method of diplomacy or its entire history.

63

Comparing me to Der Trihs? Now that’s just mean.

I agree that normal countries like Canada or Denmark don’t need nuclear weapons. But some countries prefer to play a Chaotic Evil alignment. And to do that successfully in the long run, you’ve got to have a credible counterthreat to keep the big countries off your back. Otherwise you get people like Curtis deciding it doesn’t count if they launch an airstrike against you.

64

Care to prove that the United States has any intention whatsoever of “being on North Korea’s back” or of attacking them? From where I sit–in South Korea, mind you–the United States is doing everything it can to placate that dictator and help him feed his people.

65

Eh? Look, what goal can the NK regime have beyond mere survival? They know perfectly well any attack on SK or anybody else would be suicide.

66

What goal? Countless political and military analysts over the years have pointed out that the KJI regime’s goal in developing a nuclear program is for leverage in negotiations. It has absolutely nothing to do with protecting itself from an attack that’s not going to happen as they well know it won’t.

67

Monty, have you been moonlighting as a spokesman for the North Korean government? If so, you should probably check your messages.

Because the Korean Central News Agency (the official spokesmen for North Korea) issued this statement regarding their nuclear test last year: “Any tiny hostile acts against our republic, including the stopping and searching of our peaceful vessels… will face an immediate and strong military strike in response.”

68

Kindly keep the insults out of GD, okay? The KCNA constantly releases comments like that. Those who have studied North Korea know that those messages are just verbal posturing, just like countless other messages just like that over the years.

Have you not noticed that a North Korean vessel was stopped and searched and yet there was no strong military strike in response?

69

You mean stuff like “you’re seriously lacking in knowledge”? Okay, I won’t say anything like that.

But my theory is that if you want to know what the North Korean government’s position is on a subject, then their position statements are a good source. According to those, the North Korean government seems to think the United States might attack North Korea. They might be wrong in this belief but that’s what they’re saying.

They have stated that if another country attacks them they will counterattack. And they have said that having nuclear weapons is part of their national defense - “The test will contribute to defending the sovereignty of the country and the nation and socialism and ensuring peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and the region around it with the might of (the military first policy) Songun” - and specifically citing “hostilities” from the United States as a cause of this. cite

70

I’m not quite sure why you would say this. Plenty of ships have been damaged by torpedoes or mines and escaped sinking, let alone complete vaporization. Granted, the Cheonan was a good bit smaller ship than, say, the USS Samuel B. Roberts; then again, the Roberts is still in service while the Cheonan reportedly broke in half, then sank.

71

If you want to take this to the pit, go for it. Right now, you’re misrepresenting what I posted.

Their position statements are bargaining chips as they always have been. That government has always made provocative statements for the purpose of getting concessions from other countries.

So they say that and yet when I pointed out to you that one of their ships was already stopped, searched, and detained, there was no attack. Their position statement was not an actual threat of war. Their propoganda is, in the opinion of many varied analysts, meant for domestic consumption, not actual policy.

The government with the most to be concerned about an attack from North Korea happens to be the one running the country just south of North Korea. There is very little concern at all about any North Korean involvement in the latest Naval incident. So far it seems to just be an accident.

72

[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
But my theory is that if you want to know what the North Korean government’s position is on a subject, then their position statements are a good source. According to those, the North Korean government seems to think the United States might attack North Korea. They might be wrong in this belief but that’s what they’re saying.

[/QUOTE]

Nemo…their official statements are a HORRIBLE source. Man, just look at what their positions were when millions of their citizens were starving…and starving because of their own government. Their BS is for the consumption of the local populace, who they routinely lie too in every way possible (they attempt to paint the rest of the world, especially South Korea, as something worse than a 3rd world hell hole, and that every country on earth wants to come in and take their workers paradise away from them, so that we, the starving outside, will be able to lead their idealized lifestyle. No joke, and not that much of an exaggeration…and they were saying this stuff while millions of their citizens were out scrounging for snacks in the country side (you know, grass, tree bark, stuff like that) when they weren’t fleeing across the border to China.

They don’t fear a US attack…they WANT (hell, need) an outside threat and the prestige that being a nuclear power gives them just to keep the entire country from flying apart. Far from being a threat, we are the ones feeding their people and propping the regime up so that it doesn’t suddenly and violently fly apart…and they know this. Then don’t want a war with the US or the South Koreans…what they want is for their people to think that their government is strong and resolute, able to keep the big bad Americans (and our southern ‘puppets’) at bay.

Seriously Nemo, even their own people are starting to doubt their bullshit, and they have been indoctrinated on this bullshit with their mothers milk. The fact that you would quote what you did (something they spew out regularly) is a good indication that you haven’t really looked into this before. This is beyond well known, and I doubt there is a serious expert on this issue, regardless of political leaning, who wouldn’t tell you that you have to take anything the official NK government (or it’s mouth pieces) have to say what a mountain of salt.

Even leaving aside their huge military (and all those arty tubes pointed at the SK capital, thousands of tanks, planes, millions of troops and all in the close quarters that is the Korean Peninsula), their treaties with China alone would preclude US or SK military strikes. No way would China sit back and just like us roll in there and re-unify the country…and no way are we going to get into a shooting war with China over NK, even if we wanted to put our peckers into the wood chipper that would be a military confrontation with the NK’s. There is no doubt that NK would lose, but equally, there is no doubt that they would blow the holy crap out of Seoul before hand, and probably kill a lot of SK citizens and infrastructure before they went down…and this is without nukes.

-XT

73

xtisme: At the moment, the current NK rage against SK is the South’s refusal to send tourists to Mount Geumgang. The North threatened to take all the property there but hasn’t done that yet and the deadline was five days ago. South Korea ceased participation in the tour program after one of their nationals was killed by a North Korean soldier patrolling the area. The South has demanded that North Korea guarantee the safety of tourists before they will resume the program.

74

Yeah, we’re unreasonable like that.

No one knows yet why the ship went down, although public opinion speculates that the real reason is probably something potentially embarrassing (outdated equipment, for example). the chances that it was North Korea are pretty slim.

The press has made much of the fact that the men rescued were mostly higher ranking officials. The sailors that died were mostly young men in their early 20s, in the army because of the mandatory 2 years every Korean man has to serve. Is this . . . normal? (Normal for higher ranking officials to be the first to abandon ship, I mean.)

75

Since the ship split in two, my guess is that there wasn’t any abandoning ship going on in an orderly manner. Here is an interview with the ship’s Captain.

Note: The Republic of Korea’s Armed Forces all use the same terminology for ranks. Some translators will always use the US Army terms for Korean ranks regardless of branch of service and others will use US Navy terms for Korean Navy ranks, USAF for KAF, etc.

76

[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
Monty, have you been moonlighting as a spokesman for the North Korean government? If so, you should probably check your messages.

Because the Korean Central News Agency (the official spokesmen for North Korea) issued this statement regarding their nuclear test last year: “Any tiny hostile acts against our republic, including the stopping and searching of our peaceful vessels… will face an immediate and strong military strike in response.”
[/QUOTE]

You have completely missed the point on this one. Not only is xtisme’s response quite true, you’ve also failed to note the context of the statement. North Korea isn’t complaining about attacks on the motherland, it’s responding to the (tyrannical!) practice of stopping their merchant vessels from doing things like selling arms illegally to the Burmese government. The nuclear weapons are very much for leverage — even a pathetic little country like North Korea has very important economic interests to protect, and political matters on which to negotiate. I could come up with more examples of how they have used nukes in negotiations, but it’s 3am, and I don’t really feel like looking for cites.

A propos to nothing, the latest news from the BBC is not what I’d call encouraging. Things look more and more suspicious…

77

I’m not defending North Korea. They have a deplorable regime that should be overthrown. The United Nations should invade the country and shoot Kim Jong Il.

But I doubt he sees it that way. I assume Kim thinks that running North Korea is working out okay for him and he’d like to keep doing it.

Now we can sit here in the United States and say North Korea is one screwed up country. And the people in Seoul and Beijing and Tokyo and Moscow and Paris and Buenos Aires would all agree. And we’d all be right.

But none of us is running North Korea. If you want to know why North Korea is doing what it does, you have to look inside the Kim Jong Il regime. They’re the ones running North Korea. Their belief that the United States is a threat may be irrational and untrue but they may still believe it anyway and act upon that belief.

78

If that’s a response to me (or several of the other posters, for that matter) it’s a strawman. Of course the United States is a threat to North Korea! It’s an existential threat! But North Korea’s defence against that threat is 18,000 pieces of artillery pointed at Seoul. A nuclear program that cannot create usable nuclear weapons in the near future is not (primarily, at least) about protection against the United States —on the contrary, it increases the American threat and badly undermines Chinese support. It is, instead, a prestige item, and a very effective negotiating tool.

79

I think some of you are giving Kim too much credit. You’re looking at the reasons he’s claiming he has for doing something and saying “Those reasons are irrational. Therefore, he must have some other rational reasons that he’s keeping secret. It makes no sense for Kim to think that the United States is really going to attack him and he needs nuclear missiles to defend North Korea. So he must just be saying that as a negotiation tactic to obtain the economic aid his country really needs.”

What I’m saying is that some people are genuinely irrational and they are motivated by irrational reasons. It’s a mistake to project your rationality on to them.

80

Huh? The United Nations Command (Forward) is still in Seoul. The UN already responded to an actual carried-out threat of armed attack from North Korea. China–I’m sure you’ve heard of that place–intervened when the UN forces came too close to their territory. The UN is not about to attack the DPRK.

You’re assuming incorrectly. The man may be a dictator from hell but he’s not so foolish as to not realize that his country’s in a sore situation and has been for a while. That’s why he’s been dealing with “Super Evil Southern Lackeys” to get not only food for his people but also hard currency through tourism.

That’s the key. The top guy there, Kim Jeong-Il knows that the United States is not threatening to attack his country. To the contrary, he counts on the US, Japan, South Korea, and a number of other countries to keep his people alive.