Yeah, I’m just going to call bullshit on the lot of this. Obama did not get significantly higher black support than Gore or Kerry did, only a few percent, and Clinton had the majority of the black vote initially.
To return to the OP for a minute: have we talked about Vermont? It’s the whitest state in the union, but Vermont preferred Obama to Kerry. If you look at reliably Democratic states across the Northeast, you see the same thing over and over - Obama did about four percentage points better than Kerry. That goes for states with a significant black population, like New York, and for Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, which are very white.
Define “many” and provide a cite. Obama did do better than Kerry among black voters, but it wasn’t by a huge amount and it was generally consistent with how previous Democratic nominees did. Here’s a cite showing that basically, EVERYONE liked Obama better than Kerry. It doesn’t account for black turnout, which was also definitely higher, but it’s worth keeping in context.
That’s at best highly arguably, as there have been many arguments on this board about that.
Find some cites for that, please. Black voters did vote for white candidates many times in the past, after all.
Again, cite. Black voters preferred Hillary at first, without question, probably because they were sure she would win and because they still felt a connection with Bill. Once it became clear white voters by and large had no problem with Obama and Bill in particular alienated them, it changed. But Obama proved himself to white voters before he did with black voters.
And if you make these kinds of unsubstantiated race-based arguments and think “uppity” doesn’t have any racial connotations… what are you then?
I don’t want to go all Doperland on you, but for a long time Warrensville Heights, Ohio, a middle-class, predominantly African-American suburb of Cleveland, had a white mayor. It’s an anomaly, though, because the mayor was one of the relatively few white people who stayed after the community transitioned through the 1970s from mostly white to mostly black.
It’s hard to find white mayors in predominantly black cities because, at least in parts of the country where old-school white flight and racial transition is still common, when the black population of neighborhoods and small cities reach a certain percentage, whites flee en masse. It’s called the “tipping point”, where resegretion begins; whites no longer move into the community.
Where it’s been measured, the tipping point is around 30% to 35% of the population. A 25% black population feels comfortably diverse to many, while a rise to 35% of the population may feel like “the neighborhood’s turning ghetto.” There’s a lot of small cities and suburbs that have had a sizable but sub-critical black population for population for decades – let’s say 25% black, 75% white – but few that are 75% black and 25% white where whites plan on remaining. Basically, communities that become predominantly black tend not to hold on to sizable white minorities for long, unless they are very proactive about preserving a racial balance. (Remember, I’m not talking about large cities like NYC or Washington, but rather smaller cities, suburbs and neighborhoods.)
I tracked the tipping point phenomenon in several Buffalo neighborhoods; there’s a slow rise of the black population into neighborhoods over a few decades, but when it hits 30%, whites stop moving in, and in a matter of just five to ten years, the neighborhood becomes overwhelmingly black; the only whites remaining are the elderly and those too idealistic or poor to move.
Gary is an odd one, because most of the white population is in Miller, an upper-middle-class enclave that is geographically isolated from the rest of the city. For a while, East Cleveland, Ohio was similar; the city went from having a negligible black population in 1960 to having a very large black majority in 1970, but for about 20 years afterward whites in the community held out in Forest Hill, an upper income enclave geographically isolated from the rest of East Cleveland. Even today, with East Cleveland being 95% black, there’s still some white holdouts in Forest Hill.
That’s interesting because it matches my experience really well: for a little while I reported on a community that was a little under that 25-percent threshhold in 2000, but by now is probably over. Once in a while - always in private, and usually on a crime story now that I think about it - a resident would make an offhand comment about how the place was “turning into [insert part of New York City or more African-American town nearby].”
As a white male Oklahoman who has lived in several other states, I will be the first to say we have racists here, but I doubt it is any higher than any other bible-belt state. I voted for Obama, as did many of my friends and family. I know of several predominantly black churches that marched from church to vote early, and the vast majority of them went Obama. In addition, we have a rather large Native American population, which would likely be less inclined to racism.
I expected McCain to do well in the rural areas, but was disappointed that Obama didn’t win the more urban areas, such as Oklahoma County. My opinion is that the majority of people here are evangelicals and vote Republican regardless of who is on the ticket. If Bush had the opportunity to run again, he still likely would have won by an overwhelming majority. I don’t believe that race was a major factor, though it would be naive to believe that it wasn’t a factor at all.
I am a white male living in Oklahoma. There is overt racism in Oklahoma but what surprised me this election cycle were the people who would not admit to be racist but couldn’t rationally explain why they were anti-Obama.
Several people I work with would make comments such as “Obama scares me”. Whenever I heard this type of comment, I would jump on it to try to question them to the point that they either explain a policy difference, lack of experience or admit that it was a racial thing, but they didn’t. Some would just repeat “he scares me” while others would use some factor that made no sense to me.
One these co-workers is someone who I have respected as a reasoned and intelligent person for 20 years. When I asked him why Obama scared him, his reply was because Obama was a ACORN community organizer and lived in a $2 million dollar house. I asked if he knew that his wife was Harvard Law graduate working as an attorney. His response was “that’s another thing, how did Obama afford his high priced education”. At that point I realized there was no use going any further in questioning his reasons. He simply couldn’t admit that he didn’t want a black president.
I read just the other day (sorry, no cite) that Oklahoma was the only state in which Obama did not carry a single county. Make of this what you will.
You are correct about Wyoming, but not Oklahoma, at least according to the county data.
There was a pretty even shift towards Obama across most states, except
Hawaii, where there was a massive shift towards Obama
and to a lesser extent
Indiana, where there was a strong shift towards Obama
and
Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee which seemed to prefer John Kerry over Obama for some reason.
http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/06/no-bradley-effect-but/
Oh yeah – Alaska and Arizona liked McCain/Palin, but that’s unsurprising.
More detail. Statistician Andrew Gelman of Columbia University crunches some numbers and says:
Oklahoma is also the only state that gained Republican representation in Congress. Oklahomans are extremely big on deregulation, balance of power (shared between both parties), religious freedom, and overall very Pro-Life. They have contributed more National Guard Troops to the war than any other state so far (sorry no cite) and they are closer to a high regard for an agricultural lifestyle than most states are. Like anywhere else there are nasty elements of racism both overt and covert (just to clarify racism is discrimination against an oppressed minority group, so NO whites can’t legitimately claim it) and intolerance, this comes from all ethnic/racial sources (I don’t like the distinctive term “race” since I don’t agree there are races).
Bush got 147 votes more than McCain did, Obama got 1,680 fewer votes than Kerry did. In a state with a population if almost 1.5 million, I felt that was so small as to be insignificant. Oklahoma would appear to be one of the few states where turnout was down from 2004. While racism is on the list of potential reasons, I think it’s more likely that nationwide enthusiasm didn’t reach the Democrats there because they knew they were so greatly outnumbered.
Oddly, there was a story in today’s New York TImes about the fact that Obama lost all 77 counties. I suppose the New York TImes was following The Times’ lead.
Did you look at the county map? There’s a regional band of states that shifted away from the Democrats, stretching from Oklahoma into Appalachia. [1]
I for one won’t draw any premature conclusions – somebody should drill into the data and work things out. But the first hypothesis that comes to mind when looking at that map isn’t pretty.
You might be over-aggregating as well. If I’m reading the map correctly, Oklahoma City followed national trends and shifted towards Obama.
[1] Admittedly, the OP singles out Oklahoma, which probably isn’t fair.
I’ve traveled the length and breadth of Oklahoma more times than I’d like to remember. As much as I dump on Texas, it’s Paradise compared with that state.
Yes. I brought it up in the thread about the NYT map in MPSIMS. (There are so many damn politics threads right now…)
Hmm. That red patch looks suspiciously like the migration route of the so-called Scotch-Irish.
Thanks for your accurate post about Oklahoma. The candidates don’t even campaign here because they know how Oklahoma will vote. Boring but not racial.
Amazingly, McCain did run some ads here (Oklahoma City), but I don’t recall seeing any from Obama. Again, I’m not saying we don’t have a share of racists here, but I don’t think it’s unusually high compared to other places I’ve lived. I’ve lived in GA, AL, AZ, MO and OK.
seams that KKK is rising i Oklahoma
this according to a report from ForNews on you tube
The OP has twice responded since opening this thread:
And:
This despite some well written posts that explained to him that Obama actually didn’t do that bad comparatively, and gave information on how Kerry did in the same state. Since the premise of the debate was “Is Oklahoma the most racist state since Obama did very poorly there?” and that question has been answered most assuredly in the negative, I’m not really sure there’s much left to debate–and it looks like to me the OP actually didn’t want a debate and instead just seems interested in posting insults about Oklahoma.