And that takes a lot of time, and doesn’t send troops to the Baltics.
I read Putin differently.
There are some despots who feel they are a force of history. People like Napoleon or Hitler or Lenin or Mao. These people feel they they can do whatever they want because they think they are rewriting the rules by their actions. They think they can impose their new reality over the world.
I don’t feel Putin is in this class. I think he understands he could lose and will therefore pull back if the stakes get too high.
That said, I think he’s read the situation correctly here. The United States and NATO will oppose the Russian occupation of Ukraine but will stop short of fighting a war over it. Russia is strong enough to defeat Ukraine if it fights alone. So Russia will occupy Ukraine.
After that military victory, Putin can start working on a long term political resolution. Once Russia occupies Ukraine, it becomes the new status quo. Other countries may be unhappy about it but it will come to be seen as something we live with - like the Chinese occupation of Tibet. Putin’s diplomats will begin working on re-normalizing relations with the United States and Europe. The sanctions will gradually be reduced and the world accepts that Russia has Ukraine.
It took a lot of time to do the political impeachments we’ve seen happen. This though…I don’t think there is some rule or whatever that it has to take weeks or months. AFAIK, all they need to do is vote on it. I could be wrong on that and maybe there is some mechanism to delay things, but if both parties are on board with impeachment my WAG is it could and would happen really quickly.
Again, we don’t know, so, again, not much point in beating this dead horse.
Russia’s military is obviously stronger than Ukraine’s, but almost everyone is treating a total Ukraine military defeat, relatively quickly, as a foregone conclusion. I’m not so sure. Invading a very large country is hard, and Ukraine’s terrain in February is not exactly trivial. There are many instances in history in which a smaller defensive force has held off a larger attacking force for quite a long time. Active combat could drag on for weeks or months (or maybe longer).
We’ll see. Best wishes to Ukraine and its defenders.
Ukraine is a big country, 43million, and covers a lot of territory. It is about the same land area as Texas.
Putin has stated he wants to de-Nazify Ukraine and he wants it to be part of Russia.
So I guess that means that once the Ukrainian army has been disarmed, there will be a project to eliminate of the Ukraine as a national political identify. Get rid of all Ukrainian nationalist politicians and replace them with Russian loyalists.
That will require a lot of support from within Ukraine from Putin sympathisers. A secret police force to terrorise the population and concentration camps for political enemies. The return of the Soviet Gulags and the techniques that Putin learnt from a career in the KGB. Quite a lot to do.
I expect Putin will have his hands full with this for a few years before he decides he ready for his next expansion. I am sure Putin regards the Baltic states as very small potatoes. Ukraine, however, contains the historic beating heart of the Russian soul. Putin is obsessed by what he regards as the loss of Ukraine from the rest of Russia.
Whether the rest of Russia shares this obsession is another matter. Most, I am sure, are like all ordinary people who just want to get on with their lives. Putin imagines himself to be a great man who will restore Russia to its rightful place as a powerful and feared wold power. I has decided to follow the path of conquest rather than develop the huge natural resources Russia has and largely wastes.
I would so, so like you to be right about this. But my gut feeling is that most Americans on either side don’t really give a shit about suffering in Ukraine. And after almost seven years of watching the Republican base slurp up everything Trump says, I can’t imagine them suddenly and simultaneously gaining empathy for others’ suffering and the backbone to tell Trump to STFU.
Whoah! Putin’s among us.
I agree though it might be more wishful thinking than anything. That said, the Ukrainians could inflict such severe casualties on Russia as to make it not worth the cost. I haven’t seen any solid reports as to how it’s going so far, except that Russia seems to be going all in, going for Kiyv as well as Eastern Ukraine in a broad-based attack. I saw a report that 4 Russian helicopters were shot down in Northern Ukraine, but these early reports it’s hard to say.
Like you said, we shall see. Unfortunately. 
The Republican Party is the Trump Party. They made that clear at their convention: “Our platform is whatever the Dear Leader wants.”
Liz and Mittens are Republicans-in-exile.
The Republican Party is the party of “winning at all costs”. So they were willing to do whatever Trump wanted while he was winning.
Then he lost.
And so he’s now a pariah amongst Republicans, right? No one in the Republican Party gives him the time of day, or seeks his endorsement, right?
Why is it always all or nothing with you on this? Not all the Republicans are in lockstep on either position. Myself, I think most are not going to be too keen on supporting Trump while he’s praising Putin and sucking his dick, PR-wise. But some will almost certainly stick with Trump. We shall see how it falls out. My own WAG is that IF the majority of Republicans support Trump on this they will be committing political suicide, as I don’t think the majority of Americans are going to be too keen on praising Putin while he’s taking over another country, with all of the bad shit that is almost certainly going to happen that that entails.
My suspicion is that:
- Many Republican politicians are somewhere between “I disagree with Trump on this” and “I’m horrified by Trump’s statements.”
- Very few, if any, of them will actually, publicly, say anything to repudiate Trump, as they know that doing so will likely cost them their political futures (because their voters are largely members of the Cult of Trump).
I would estimate that well over 75% of Republican voters support Putin’s actions. They don’t care so much about Ukraine as thumbing Biden and the “decadent West” in the eye.
I mean the logic is simple: does this make libs upset? If yes, then Republicans support it.
Cite? We’ve seen the article in the WaPo with a lot of Republicans moving in lockstep with Trump. Where are the Republicans who are advancing the traditional Republican position that Russia should not be allowed to take over Europe?
Ever since the rise of Trump, I’ve seen people on these boards comment about the hidden backlash in the Republican party of people who oppose Trump. Who are they, and when are they going to come forward?
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McCain died.
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Senator Flake retired because he couldn’t get re-elected because he opposed some of Trump’s measures.
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Three of the ten Republican Representatives who voted to impeach Trump are retiring.
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Cheney is facing a primary challenge, and has been condemned by her state Republican Party and the Republican National Committee.
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Not one Republican voted to impeach Trump over his attempt to make aid to Ukraine contingent on a political favour for Trump.
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Which prominent Republicans condemned Trump when he (metaphorically) fellated Putin in Helsinki, and said that he took the word of the President of Russia over the intelligence findings of the US intelligence community?
So, where are these Republicans who oppose Trump and when are they going to make their influence felt?
What, exactly are you asking me to cite here? I said not all Republicans are moving in lockstep with Trump. You say ‘a lot of Republicans’. Those are all nebulously defined terms, and depending on what you are asking I’m going to ask YOU for a cite first demonstrating that many/most/more than half or some other significant number of Republicans ARE supporting Trump ON THIS UKRAINE ISSUE, which is what we are talking about. Personally, I don’t know what the percentage is, and my OPINION is that it’s less than half or even less than a quarter would come right out and actively support Trump in praising Putin about this Ukraine invasion. So, please define exactly what type of cite you are asking for here, and be prepared that if you are wanting a nose count that this is going to be on you to cite that a significant number of Republicans actively are supporting Trump over the Ukraine.
Russia and China are great powers and currently share a common adversary. Why not make moves that increase their relative power with respect to the common adversary? It’s a good test to see the resolve of the West, which in my opinion is quite weak. People are concerned about Russia’s next move. I’d be concerned more about Taiwan.
Ha ha! A Senate with more than 40 Republicans would never, ever vote to impeach a Republican president who did this. They would support a Republican president who let Russia take over all of Europe right to the British Isles. Party before country. Russia before Democrats. They have proven this.
I don’t see how this increases Russia’s power, especially in the long term. We’ll see.